Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX) is scheduled to report its Q1 2023 results on Wednesday, April 26. We expect the company to report revenues and earnings in line with the consensus estimates. A rise in elective surgeries performed and market share gains for some of its products will likely aid the company’s top-line growth. Although we expect Boston Scientific to navigate well in Q1, our forecast indicates that BSX stock is fully valued, as discussed below. Our interactive dashboard analysis of the Boston Scientific Earnings Preview has additional details.
(1) Revenues expected to align with the consensus estimates
- Trefis estimates Boston Scientific’s Q1 2023 revenues to be around $3.2 billion, aligning with the consensus estimate and reflecting a mid-single-digit y-o-y growth.
- The company should benefit from a continued uptick in total procedures and new products, including POLARx (Japan), Vercise, and XL valves, among others. Its recent acquisitions, including Baylis, will further bolster its top-line growth. The company has acquired a majority stake in Acotec, which will aid its future sales growth in China.
- Looking back at Q4, the company reported a 4% y-o-y rise in sales to $3.2 billion, led by mid-single-digit gains across segments.
- Our dashboard on Boston Scientific Revenues offers more details on the company’s segments.
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(2) EPS is likely to be in line with the consensus estimates
- Boston Scientific’s Q1 2023 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be $0.44 per Trefis analysis, broadly in line with the consensus estimate of $0.43.
- Boston Scientific’s adjusted net income of $642 million in Q4 2022 reflected a 2% fall from its $653 million figure in the prior-year quarter.
- This can be attributed to about a 100 bps fall in net margins.
- For the full-year 2023, we expect the adjusted EPS to be higher at $1.92, compared to $1.75 in 2022.
(3) BSX stock is fully valued
- We estimate Boston Scientific’s Valuation to be $49 per share, about 4% below the current market price of $51.
- At its current levels, BSX stock is trading at 27x forward P/E based on our earnings forecast of $1.92 for 2023, compared to the last three-year average of 24x, implying that BSX stock is fully valued.
- If the company reports upbeat Q1 results and provides an outlook better than the street estimates, the P/E multiple will likely be revised upward, resulting in higher levels for BSX stock.
Furthermore, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised at how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Xylem vs. Merck.
Despite higher inflation and the Fed raising interest rates, among other factors, BSX stock has risen 10% this year. Can it drop from here? See how low Boston Scientific stock can go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.
|S&P 500 Return||1%||8%||85%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||2%||10%||246%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 4/24/2023
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016