Time To Buy The Dip In BILL Stock?
BILL (BILL) stock has fallen by 16.7% in less than a month, from $50.76 on 9th Feb, 2026 to $42.27 now. Should you buy this dip?
Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips. As it turns out, BILL stock passes basic quality checks. But the bad news is that historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was -12%, with median peak return of 37%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 20% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 2.4% |
| 3M | 2.6% |
| 6M | -8.0% |
| 12M | -12.5% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
BILL had 12 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -20% within 30 days was triggered
- 37% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 127 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -33% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | BILL Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | BILL | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | -12% | 37% | -33% | 127 | ||||
| 1302026 | -20% | 2% | -2% | 18% | -17% | 10 | ||
| 2072025 | -31% | 1% | -24% | 5% | -43% | 3 | ||
| 6132024 | -23% | 8% | -14% | 101% | -22% | 176 | ||
| 2092024 | -22% | 5% | -7% | 49% | -33% | 301 | ||
| 11032023 | -33% | 1% | -11% | 26% | -34% | 54 | ||
| 3012023 | -21% | -1% | -22% | 61% | -33% | 139 | ||
| 9262022 | -21% | -14% | -20% | 21% | -45% | 9 | ||
| 5022022 | -22% | -7% | -55% | 1% | -61% | 115 | ||
| 12032021 | -22% | -0% | -53% | 12% | -59% | 5 | ||
| 3252021 | -24% | 0% | 62% | 135% | -10% | 229 | ||
| 1272021 | -21% | 3% | 43% | 202% | 0% | 286 | ||
| 3162020 | -28% | -25% | 319% | 430% | -19% | 331 | ||
BILL Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 11.8% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 22.4% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 24.8% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | -0.2 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 153.4 |
Not sure if you can take a call on BILL stock? Consider portfolio approach
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