Astrana Health Stock To $33?
Astrana Health (ASTH) stock has fallen 23% during the past day, and is currently trading at $25.54. Our multi-factor assessment suggests that it may be time to buy more shares of ASTH stock. We have, overall, a positive view of the stock, and a price of $33 may not be out of reach. We believe there are only a couple of things to fear in ASTH stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. Considering stock’s Moderate valuation, we think it is Attractive.
Below is our assessment:
| CONCLUSION | |
|---|---|
| What you pay: | |
| Valuation | Moderate |
| What you get: | |
| Growth | Very Strong |
| Profitability | Very Weak |
| Financial Stability | Strong |
| Downturn Resilience | Weak |
| Operating Performance | Strong |
| Stock Opinion | Attractive |
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Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $1.3 Bil in market cap, Astrana Health provides physician-driven healthcare services through a network of primary care, specialist physicians, and hospitalists, serving patients primarily covered by private and public insurance programs.
[1] Valuation Looks Moderate
| ASTH | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| Price-to-Sales Ratio | 0.5 | 3.2 |
| Price-to-Earnings Ratio | 49.9 | 23.6 |
| Price-to-Free Cash Flow Ratio | 10.4 | 20.0 |
This table highlights how ASTH is valued vs broader market. For more details see: ASTH Valuation Ratios
[2] Growth Is Very Strong
- Astrana Health has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 36.8% over the last 3 years
- Its revenues have grown 52% from $1.6 Bil to $2.4 Bil in the last 12 months
- Also, its quarterly revenues grew 34.7% to $655 Mil in the most recent quarter from $486 Mil a year ago.
| ASTH | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-Year Average | 36.8% | 5.5% |
| Latest Twelve Months* | 52.0% | 6.0% |
| Most Recent Quarter (YoY)* | 34.7% | 7.2% |
This table highlights how ASTH is growing vs broader market. For more details see: ASTH Revenue Comparison
[3] Profitability Appears Very Weak
- ASTH last 12 month operating income was $70 Mil representing operating margin of 2.9%
- With cash flow margin of 5.4%, it generated nearly $131 Mil in operating cash flow over this period
- For the same period, ASTH generated nearly $25 Mil in net income, suggesting net margin of about 1.0%
| ASTH | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Operating Margin | 2.9% | 18.8% |
| Current OCF Margin | 5.4% | 20.5% |
| Current Net Income Margin | 1.0% | 13.0% |
This table highlights how ASTH profitability vs broader market. For more details see: ASTH Operating Income Comparison
[4] Financial Stability Looks Strong
- ASTH Debt was $448 Mil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $1.3 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 35.5%
- ASTH Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $342 Mil of $1.4 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 23.7%
| ASTH | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| Current Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 35.5% | 21.0% |
| Current Cash-to-Assets Ratio | 23.7% | 7.1% |
[5] Downturn Resilience Is Weak
ASTH has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.
2022 Inflation Shock
- ASTH stock fell 77.3% from a high of $119.45 on 16 November 2021 to $27.17 on 15 December 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- The stock is yet to recover to its pre-Crisis high
- The highest the stock has reached since then is $62.54 on 16 October 2024 , and currently trades at $25.54
| ASTH | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -77.3% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | Not Fully Recovered | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- ASTH stock fell 49.4% from a high of $18.88 on 22 January 2020 to $9.55 on 16 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 29 May 2020
| ASTH | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -49.4% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 74 days | 148 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- ASTH stock fell 99.8% from a high of $4.24 on 10 October 2008 to $0.01 on 20 July 2009 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 7 November 2013
| ASTH | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -99.8% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 1571 days | 1480 days |
But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read ASTH Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.
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