Aris Mining Stock: Strong Cash Flow Poised for a Re-Rating?
We think Aris Mining (ARIS) stock is worth a look: It is growing, producing cash, and available at a significant valuation discount. Companies like this can use cash to fuel additional revenue growth, or simply pay their shareholders through dividends or buybacks. Either move makes them attractive to the market.
The stock is available at a significant discount to its 3-month, 1-year, and 2-year highs, making it a potential bargain. But before coming to that conclusion, it is critical to understand why the stock has declined, and where its fundamentals – including growth, cash flow, and margins – stand today.
ARIS Has Strong Fundamentals
- Cash Yield: Aris Mining offers an impressive cash flow yield of 9.3%.
- Growing: Revenue growth of 103.9% over the last twelve months means that the cash pile is going to grow.
- Valuation Discount: ARIS stock is currently trading at 34% below its 3-month high, 45% below its 1-year high, and 57% below its 2-year high.
Below is a quick comparison of ARIS fundamentals with S&P medians.
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| ARIS | S&P Median | |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Materials | – |
| Industry | Gold | – |
| Free Cash Flow Yield | 9.3% | 4.2% |
| Revenue Growth LTM | 103.9% | 7.4% |
| Operating Margin LTM | 42.5% | 18.4% |
| PS Ratio | 2.6 | 3.2 |
| PE Ratio | 16.9 | 23.8 |
| Discount vs 3-Month High | -34.3% | -8.4% |
| Discount vs 1-Year High | -45.2% | -13.8% |
| Discount vs 2-Year High | -57.1% | -16.0% |
*LTM: Last Twelve Months
While ARIS may sound like a good opportunity, there is always a meaningful risk involved when exposing yourself to a single stock trade. One of the ways to understand that risk is to look at how ARIS stock has behaved during past market crashes. In other words, how low can it really go, and are you willing to take that risk?
Other Stocks Like ARIS
Not ready to act on ARIS? You could consider these alternatives:
These stocks have positive revenue growth, high free cash flow yield, and are trading at a meaningful discount to 3M, 1Y, and 2Y highs.
A portfolio that was built starting 12/31/2016 with stocks that fulfill the criteria above would have resulted in average 6-month and 12-month forward returns of 25.7% and 57.9%, respectively, with a win rate (percentage of picks returning positive) of above 70%.
Portfolios Over Single Stock Picks
The fundamental profile of ARIS – robust cash yield paired with a multi-year valuation trough – represents a potential mean-reversion signal. However, while individual stock trades can look compelling, these trades carry idiosyncratic risks that even elite cash flows cannot fully hedge.
The Trefis High Quality Portfolio (HQ) follows an objective and rule-based approach. By diversifying across 30 high-conviction names, the HQ strategy has outpaced the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000.