Abercrombie & Fitch Stock To $94?
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) stock has fallen by 20.3% in less than a month, from $90.90 on 9/19/2025 to $72.44 now. What comes next? As it turns out, we believe there is a good chance of a stock rebound considering history of recovery post-dips and our current Attractive opinion of the stock. Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips.
As it turns out, ANF stock passes basic quality checks. The stock has returned (median) 50% in one year, and 72% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically. For quick background, ANF operates as a specialty retailer offering apparel through Hollister and A&Fitch segments, with approximately 729 stores across Europe, Asia, Canada, the Middle East, the US, and internationally.
For details on stock fundamentals and assessment: Read Buy or Sell Abercrombie & Fitch Stock to see the full picture.
ANF stock has fallen meaningfully recently and we currently find it attractive. While this may feel like an opportunity, there is significant risk in relying on a single stock. On the other hand, there is a huge value to a broader diversified approach. If you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio (HQ) – HQ has outperformed its benchmark – a combination of S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap index, and achieved returns exceeding 105% since its inception. Risk management is key – consider, what could long-term portfolio performance be if you blended 10% commodities, 10% gold, and 2% crypto with HQ’s performance metrics.
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- Better Value & Growth: URBN, ANF Lead American Eagle Outfitters Stock
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 2.0% |
| 3M | 7.6% |
| 6M | 18.5% |
| 12M | 49.6% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
ANF had 11 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 72% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 259 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -25% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | ANF Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | ANF | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 50% | 72% | -25% | 259 | ||||
| 2192025 | -34% | 4% | -31% | 0% | -36% | 0 | ||
| 5242022 | -41% | -10% | 50% | 64% | -25% | 259 | ||
| 7202020 | -32% | 2% | 325% | 393% | 0% | 345 | ||
| 3052020 | -32% | -9% | 154% | 154% | -32% | 365 | ||
| 5292019 | -32% | -4% | -34% | 4% | -54% | 231 | ||
| 10112018 | -33% | -6% | -12% | 73% | -21% | 204 | ||
| 7102017 | -31% | 1% | 176% | 210% | -7% | 276 | ||
| 5312016 | -30% | 0% | -29% | 17% | -44% | 90 | ||
| 6012012 | -33% | -7% | 56% | 72% | -10% | 353 | ||
| 11212011 | -32% | 0% | -2% | 16% | -37% | 114 | ||
| 5262010 | -31% | -12% | 121% | 125% | -11% | 365 | ||
Abercrombie & Fitch Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 9.3% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 11.7% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 11.0% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 323.5 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 252.6 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct Trefis portfolio strategies. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.