Abercrombie & Fitch Stock: Strong Cash Flow Poised for a Re-Rating?

We think Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) stock is worth a look: It is growing, producing cash, and available at a significant valuation discount. Companies like this can use cash to fuel additional revenue growth, or simply pay their shareholders through dividends or buybacks. Either move makes them attractive to the market.

What Is Happening With ANF

ANF is down 53% so far this year and is now available at a significant discount to its 3-month, 1-year, and 2-year highs. This can be attributed to decelerated comparable sales growth in certain regions and increased tariff costs on imports impacting future profitability. Furthermore, the market reacted unfavorably to a sales decline within the core Abercrombie brand despite robust overall company performance.

The stock may not reflect it yet, but here is what’s going well for the company: the Hollister brand is driving substantial customer growth with a 19% sales surge, supported by a focused digital strategy. A low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.85 ensures strong cash flow, and management lifted its full-year sales guidance to 5-7%.

ANF Has Strong Fundamentals

• Cash Yield: Abercrombie & Fitch offers an impressive cash flow yield of 10.4%.
• Growing: Revenue growth of 9.3% over the last twelve months means that the cash pile is going to grow.
• Valuation Discount: ANF stock is currently trading at 30% below its 3-month high, 57% below its 1-year high, and 64% below its 2-year high.

Below is a quick comparison of ANF fundamentals with S&P medians.

*LTM: Last Twelve Months

But What About The Risk Involved?

While ANF stock may be a compelling investment opportunity, it’s always helpful to be aware of a stock’s history of drawdown. American Eagle Outfitters fell roughly 84% during the Dot-Com Bubble and about 83% in the Global Financial Crisis. The Inflation Shock wasn’t kind either, with a nearly 70% drop. Even the smaller dips like 2018’s correction and the Covid Pandemic saw declines north of 54%. No matter the positives around a stock, sharp market sell-offs tend to hit hard across the board. But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, and outlook changes. Read ANF Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

If you want to see more details, read Buy or Sell ANF Stock.

Other Stocks Like ANF

Not ready to act on ANF? You could consider these alternatives:

1. Owens-Corning (OC)
2. Stride (LRN)
3. Remitly Global (RELY)

We chose these stocks using the following criteria:

1. Greater than $2 Bil in market cap
2. Positive revenue growth
3. High free cash flow yield
4. Meaningful discount to 3M, 1Y, and 2Y highs

A portfolio that was built starting 12/31/2016 with stocks that fulfil the criteria above would have performed as follows:

• Average 6-month and 12-month forward returns of 25.7% and 57.9% respectively
• Win rate (percentage of picks returning positive) of >70% for both 6-month and 12-month periods

Portfolios Are The Smarter Way To Invest

Stocks can jump or crash but long term success comes from staying invested. The right portfolio helps you ride gains and cushion single stock drops

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.