How Will Amazon.com Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. The company has $2.8 Tril in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $717 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $80 Bil in operating profits and net income of $78 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Amazon.com’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 40% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 8.1%, and median of the 12 negative returns = -6.2%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/5/2026 | -5.6% | -10.4% | -4.1% |
| 10/30/2025 | 9.6% | 9.1% | 5.2% |
| 7/31/2025 | -8.3% | -4.7% | -2.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.1% | 1.0% | 8.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | -4.1% | -3.5% | -18.5% |
| 10/31/2024 | 6.2% | 12.7% | 13.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | -8.8% | -9.9% | -3.0% |
| 4/30/2024 | 2.3% | 7.9% | 2.5% |
| 2/1/2024 | 7.9% | 6.6% | 11.5% |
| 10/26/2023 | 6.8% | 15.5% | 23.6% |
| 8/3/2023 | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% |
| 4/27/2023 | -4.0% | -5.3% | 9.4% |
| 2/2/2023 | -8.4% | -13.0% | -17.0% |
| 10/27/2022 | -6.8% | -19.5% | -15.3% |
| 7/28/2022 | 10.4% | 16.6% | 6.9% |
| 4/28/2022 | -14.0% | -19.5% | -20.4% |
| 2/3/2022 | 13.5% | 14.5% | -1.0% |
| 10/28/2021 | -2.2% | 0.9% | 3.3% |
| 7/29/2021 | -7.6% | -6.2% | -7.0% |
| 4/29/2021 | -0.1% | -4.8% | -7.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% |
| Median Negative | -6.2% | -8.1% | -7.1% |
| Max Positive | 13.5% | 16.6% | 23.6% |
| Max Negative | -14.0% | -19.5% | -20.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 45.4% | -4.5% | -27.0% |
| 3Y History | 33.8% | 5.9% | -2.6% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Amazon.com stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Amazon.com. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN Earnings Dates | AMZN | NFLX |
| 2/5/2026 | -5.6% | -7.3% |
| 10/30/2025 | 9.6% | -12.3% |
| 7/31/2025 | -8.3% | -9.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.1% | 16.5% |
| 10/31/2024 | 6.2% | 9.9% |
| 8/1/2024 | -8.8% | -2.8% |
| 4/30/2024 | 2.3% | -9.8% |
| 2/1/2024 | 7.9% | 15.3% |
| 10/26/2023 | 6.8% | 16.6% |
| 8/3/2023 | 8.3% | -9.8% |
| 4/27/2023 | -4.0% | -2.4% |
| 2/2/2023 | -8.4% | 16.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | -6.8% | 23.3% |
| 7/28/2022 | 10.4% | 12.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | -14.0% | -42.8% |
| 2/3/2022 | 13.5% | -20.2% |
| 10/28/2021 | -2.2% | 5.5% |
| 7/29/2021 | -7.6% | -3.2% |
| CORRELATION | 19.3% |
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