Applied Materials Stock At $395: Can It Do What CoreWeave Did?
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Every photo your phone backs up and every answer an AI chatbot types lands on a memory chip in a data center. Many of the machines that make those chips come from three American companies: Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA. Applied reports Thursday after the close, the first of the three to speak since CoreWeave lifted the AI trade.
Memory makers had a brutal week. In the five days to Tuesday’s close, SanDisk fell 23.7%, Seagate 17.3%, Western Digital 16.7% and Micron 15.2%. Then CoreWeave reported that evening, and on Wednesday CoreWeave rose 24.7%, SanDisk 13.7%, Micron 11.9% and Applied 6.1%. The reason is plain: if the AI buyers keep spending (CoreWeave after earnings), memory makers keep building, and they buy their machines from these three. That is why Thursday’s report matters well beyond one stock.
The same chain reaches your money. In a portfolio of a few million dollars, Applied, Lam and KLA often sit in three funds at once. Do you know your total? A Trefis partner firm can add it up with you in a free 15-minute call.
What Number Decides Thursday?
Not the quarter. Applied guided to about $10.25 billion of revenue. The number is 2027. At its October 13 investor breakfast Applied gave no 2027 forecast, and the stock fell about 25% in eight trading days. Lam has since forecast chipmakers’ equipment spending above $200 billion in 2027, with DRAM growing fastest. If Applied backs that, with DRAM in the lead, the memory story gets its supplier’s confirmation.
What Did Its Last 8 Reports Do?
| Day after report | Applied | Lam | KLA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2024 | −9.2% | −6.3% | −4.7% |
| Feb 2025 | −8.2% | −0.7% | −1.8% |
| May 2025 | −5.3% | −0.4% | −1.8% |
| Aug 2025 | −14.1% | −7.3% | −8.4% |
| Nov 2025 | +1.2% | −3.3% | −2.4% |
| Feb 2026 | +8.1% | +1.8% | +0.9% |
| May 2026 | −0.9% | −4.8% | −4.7% |
| Aug 2026 | −5.1% | −1.4% | −2.7% |
Source: Trefis, prices through Nov 11. Applied: down 6 of 8, median −5.2%. Lam and KLA moved the same way 7 of 8. Micron only 4 of 8.
Two surprises. Applied’s report is usually a sell-the-news night: August’s beat-and-raise still cost 5.1%. And the one big up day, February’s +8.1%, came with record DRAM revenue. Memory spending lifts Applied; Applied’s report moves Lam and KLA, not Micron.
Is The Price Low Enough To Clear The Bar?
| Stock | Price/sales, 2026 peak | Now | 1 month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Applied | 19.9x | 10.2x | −22.1% |
| Lam | 24.1x | 11.3x | −26.0% |
| KLA | 30.4x | 14.6x | −17.7% |
| Micron | 17.9x | 6.9x | −21.2% |
Source: Trefis price-to-sales history and prices through Nov 11.
The multiple is about half its June peak (why Applied is half price), and memory’s multiple fell furthest (why memory stocks crashed). Wednesday’s 6% jump raised the bar before Applied said a word.
So, Can It Do What CoreWeave Did?
Position, not prediction. CoreWeave answered the demand question. Applied can only confirm the supply side, and its record says the market usually wants more.
Count three stocks as one. Applied, Lam and KLA moved together after 7 of 8 reports. Size them as one position.
Judge the report by 2027 and DRAM, not by Friday’s move. A 2027 number that matches Lam’s keeps the thesis; none again, and you know what the October fall was about.
Is Your Chip Exposure One Bet Or Three?
Seven of eight times, these three moved as one. For families with seven figures invested, a free 15-minute call with a Trefis partner firm can show how much of your portfolio rides on Thursday night.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.