Alaska Air Stock To $25?
Alaska Air (ALK) stock has fallen by 34.6% in less than a month, from $55.30 on 26th Feb, 2026 to $36.16 now. What comes next? We think that the stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in context of our Unattractive opinion of the stock, suggest possibility of further downside. A price of $25 is not out of question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years. Read Buy or Sell Alaska Air Stock to see how we arrive at this opinion.
So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on ALK stock to help you make the decision. The bad news is that historically, the median return for the 12-month period following sharp dips was -4.1%, even though median peak return was 32%. We define sharp dip as stock going down 30% or more, in less than 30 day period.
Below, we get into details of historical dips and subsequent returns.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -10.6% |
| 3M | 0.6% |
| 6M | -4.0% |
| 12M | -4.1% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
ALK had 4 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 32% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 138 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -21% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | ALK Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | ALK | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | -4% | 32% | -21% | 138 | ||||
| 3182026 | -31% | -4% | 3% | 4% | -3% | 7 | ||
| 10242025 | -31% | 3% | -11% | 38% | -16% | 108 | ||
| 3282025 | -31% | -9% | -23% | 27% | -27% | 167 | ||
| 3052020 | -33% | -9% | 49% | 55% | -46% | 356 | ||
Alaska Air Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 21.3% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 14.0% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 8.8% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 1.6 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 9.0 |
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