After A 24% Slide, Is ALK Stock Worth A Look?
Alaska Air stock has fallen by 24.1% in less than a month, from $63.86 on 9/11/2025 to $48.50 now. Should you buy this dip? Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips.
As it turns out, Alaska Air passes basic quality checks and has returned (median) 24% in one year, and 41% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically. For quick background, ALK provides passenger and cargo air transportation services across three segments, flying to approximately 120 destinations throughout North America.
Price behaviour is one thing, but what do the fundamentals say? Read Buy or Sell ALK Stock to see the full picture.
That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -28.2% |
| 3M | -2.2% |
| 6M | -4.0% |
| 12M | 24.1% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
ALK had 2 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 41% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 262 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -32% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | ALK Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | ALK | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 24% | 41% | -32% | 262 | ||||
| 3282025 | -31% | -9% | -1% | 27% | -19% | 167 | ||
| 3052020 | -33% | -9% | 49% | 55% | -46% | 356 | ||
Alaska Air Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 27.8% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 18.6% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 10.6% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 3.1 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 10.9 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct Trefis portfolio strategies. If you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.