How XRP Price Falls To $1?

October 18th, 2025 by Trefis Team

Ripple’s XRP experienced a sharp 45% intraday collapse on October 10, plunging from $2.83 to $1.53 within hours. The drop was triggered by President Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on China, which led to a widespread selloff across equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. XRP was hit especially hard as cascading liquidations wiped out leveraged positions—Binance reported about $19 billion in leveraged crypto positions erased within hours. Although XRP recovered to close at $2.36 that day and currently trades near $2.34, it remains well below the $3+ range seen in early October.

Be ready to face the swings if you are holding a token like XRP. However, if you’re looking for upside with less volatility, consider the High Quality Portfolio.

While there are many anticipated bullish developments, the focus here is on a crucial question: if those expected positives fail to materialize, how far could XRP fall?

 

Image by Miloslav Hamřík from Pixabay

Delayed Catalysts

October was expected to be a bullish month for XRP, particularly with ETF approvals potentially on the horizon. However, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has frozen SEC decision-making, delaying the ETF verdict and dampening investor sentiment. This delay underscores how quickly optimism can fade when key regulatory catalysts don’t arrive as scheduled.

Downside Risk Scenarios

Several developments could push XRP below $1:

  1. Regulatory Rejection: A flat-out ETF denial would close off a major path for institutional adoption and signal persistent regulatory opposition. Likewise, rejection of Ripple’s banking license application would undermine its strategy of embedding XRP into traditional financial infrastructure.
  2. Escalating Trade War: Further tariff hikes or worsening U.S.–China relations could trigger another risk-off wave. Given XRP’s proven macro sensitivity and widespread leverage, a repeat of October 10’s dynamics could drive prices even lower.
  3. Liquidity Cascade: The October crash exposed the fragility caused by excessive leverage. Another round of forced liquidations—triggered by margin calls, exchange issues, or mass withdrawals—could fuel a downward spiral past key support levels.
  4. Macroeconomic Deterioration: A deeper recession, tightening credit, or broader risk aversion could compress crypto valuations across the board. Without Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative or Ethereum’s dominant utility, XRP could be hit especially hard.
  5. Technical Breakdown: A breach of key supports at $2.00 and then $1.50 could trigger algorithmic selling and momentum-driven exits, accelerating declines toward the psychological $1.00 mark.

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The Bottom Line

Cryptocurrencies remain inherently high-risk, and XRP is a prime example. While the token carries meaningful upside potential—ETF approval, regulatory clarity, and banking integration—the downside risks are equally steep. The October 10 collapse proved that a 45% intraday loss isn’t theoretical. Investors must understand that XRP’s potential for large gains comes with symmetric—or even amplified—exposure to regulatory, macroeconomic, and structural risks.

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