Wynn Resorts (WYNN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $125.94 | Market Cap: $13.0 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Casinos & Gaming
Wynn Resorts (WYNN)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $125.94Market Cap: $13.0 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Casinos & Gaming
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 5.6% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -12% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 78% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Markets & Betting. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 5.6% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 20% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Markets & Betting. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Experiential Retail, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -12% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 78% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WYNN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Wynn Resorts reported a miss on earnings per share (EPS) in Q3 2025.
Wynn Resorts issued Q3 2025 earnings on November 6, 2025, reporting an EPS of $0.86, which missed analysts' consensus estimates of $1.09 by $0.23. This earnings miss, despite a revenue beat, could have contributed to a slight negative adjustment in the stock price.
2. Increased capital expenditure commitments in Macau and the UAE may raise investor concerns about short-term cash flow.
Wynn Macau's capital expenditure for 2025 is expected to be between US$250 million and US$300 million, increasing to US$450 million to US$500 million in 2026, for projects including a new dining hall, event center, and theatre at Wynn Palace. Additionally, the Wynn Al Marjan Island project in the UAE has a total budget of $5.1 billion, with $3.4 billion already spent or committed. While analysts express comfort with Wynn's cash flow to support these projects, the substantial investment could lead to short-term investor caution regarding free cash flow, contributing to a slight stock dip.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WYNN Return | -18% | -25% | -3% | 11% | -4% | 47% | -6% |
| Peers Return | 127% | -20% | -23% | 53% | 2% | -3% | 113% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WYNN Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 43% | 37% | 57% | 48% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WYNN Max Drawdown | -69% | -33% | -39% | 0% | -19% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -48% | -36% | -43% | -10% | -24% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LVS, DKNG, MGM, PENN, FLUT. See WYNN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WYNN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -62.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 169.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -71.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 253.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 119.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -91.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1022.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1690 days | 1480 days |
Compare to LVS, DKNG, MGM, PENN, FLUT
In The Past
Wynn Resorts's stock fell -62.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/17/2021. A -62.8% loss requires a 169.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WYNN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| 05312019 | WYNN | Wynn Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | -20.3% | -58.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| 05312019 | WYNN | Wynn Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | -20.3% | -58.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Wynn Resorts
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 50.90 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.2 |
| Rev LTM | 9,687 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,180 |
| FCF LTM | 783 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 746 |
| CFO LTM | 1,421 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,210 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 25.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.2 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/EBIT | 11.0 |
| P/E | 24.9 |
| P/CFO | 11.6 |
| Total Yield | 0.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -15.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -13.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 43.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -27.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -21.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
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