Tearsheet

Netflix (NFLX)


Market Price (12/14/2025): $94.76 | Market Cap: $402.2 Bil
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment

Netflix (NFLX)


Market Price (12/14/2025): $94.76
Market Cap: $402.2 Bil
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Movies & Entertainment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 9.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.0 Bil
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 117x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 397x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 532x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 488x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Future of Entertainment. Themes include Video Streaming, and Original Content Production.
 
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 9.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.0 Bil
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Digital Content & Streaming, and Future of Entertainment. Themes include Video Streaming, and Original Content Production.
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 117x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 397x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 532x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 488x
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NFLX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The approximate -21.2% movement in Netflix's stock from August 31, 2025, to December 14, 2025, can be attributed to several key factors: 1. Proposed Warner Bros. Discovery Acquisition Concerns. Netflix's stock experienced a significant downturn in early December 2025, with a 15% slump over six days and a 23% decline over two months, primarily due to market concerns surrounding a proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery's studio and streaming assets. Investors expressed worries about the substantial financial risks, potential regulatory scrutiny, and uncertainties regarding future revenue growth prospects associated with this large-scale deal.

2. Increased Content Costs and Subscriber Churn. While Netflix plans substantial investments in content, the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery would introduce significant new production and licensing costs. The broader streaming market also faces rising subscriber churn due to consumer cost sensitivity and challenges with content discovery, which could further pressure Netflix's financial performance.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NFLX Return67%11%-51%65%83%6%191%
Peers Return39%-0%-42%37%16%34%72%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NFLX Win Rate75%42%42%58%83%50% 
Peers Win Rate55%48%32%67%55%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NFLX Max Drawdown-8%-10%-72%-1%-4%-7% 
Peers Max Drawdown-29%-15%-46%-3%-16%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DIS, WBD, AMZN, CMCSA, AAPL. See NFLX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNFLXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-75.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven315.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven832 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-22.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven28 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-44.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven79.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven478 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-55.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven126.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven141 days1480 days

Compare to AAPL, AMZN, FUBO, AMC, RDI


In The Past

Netflix's stock fell -75.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/17/2021. A -75.9% loss requires a 315.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Netflix (NFLX)

Better Bets than Netflix (NFLX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NFLX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.5%-0.5%-0.5%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-6.4%-6.4%-6.4%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.0%5.0%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
11.6%11.6%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-28.9%-28.9%-28.9%
NFLX_4302024_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%04302024NFLXNetflixQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
37.9%105.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.5%-0.5%-0.5%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-6.4%-6.4%-6.4%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.0%5.0%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
11.6%11.6%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-28.9%-28.9%-28.9%
NFLX_4302024_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%04302024NFLXNetflixQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
37.9%105.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Netflix

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NFLXDISWBDAMZNCMCSAAAPLMedian
NameNetflix Walt Dis.Warner B.Amazon.c.Comcast Apple  
Mkt Price95.19111.6029.98226.1927.23278.28103.39
Mkt Cap404.0200.774.32,406.0101.34,147.2302.3
Rev LTM43,37994,42537,863670,038124,184408,625109,304
Op Inc LTM12,64313,8321,41276,19022,505130,21418,168
FCF LTM8,96710,0774,13413,48116,58896,18411,779
FCF 3Y Avg7,2567,8444,92521,67713,380100,50310,612
CFO LTM9,57518,1015,230121,13731,210108,56524,656
CFO 3Y Avg7,70613,9796,07196,97728,371111,55921,175

Growth & Margins

NFLXDISWBDAMZNCMCSAAAPLMedian
NameNetflix Walt Dis.Warner B.Amazon.c.Comcast Apple  
Rev Chg LTM15.4%3.4%-4.3%10.9%2.5%6.0%4.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.4%4.5%17.2%11.3%0.7%1.8%7.9%
Rev Chg Q17.2%-0.5%-6.0%13.3%2.1%9.6%5.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.0%-0.1%-1.5%3.0%0.5%2.1%1.3%
Op Mgn LTM29.1%14.6%3.7%11.4%18.1%31.9%16.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg24.4%12.6%-0.5%7.9%18.9%30.8%15.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.4%-0.1%1.2%0.3%-0.6%0.1%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM22.1%19.2%13.8%18.1%25.1%26.6%20.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg20.2%15.2%15.2%15.8%23.2%28.4%18.0%
FCF/Rev LTM20.7%10.7%10.9%2.0%13.4%23.5%12.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg19.0%8.5%12.3%3.5%10.9%25.6%11.6%

Valuation

NFLXDISWBDAMZNCMCSAAAPLMedian
NameNetflix Walt Dis.Warner B.Amazon.c.Comcast Apple  
Mkt Cap404.0200.774.32,406.0101.34,147.2302.3
P/S117.32.11.33.50.99.32.8
P/EBIT396.814.913.127.43.729.121.2
P/E487.816.299.833.15.138.235.6
P/CFO531.511.19.319.33.735.015.2
Total Yield0.2%6.6%1.0%3.0%23.8%3.0%3.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.4%0.0%0.0%4.2%0.4%0.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.3%4.4%18.3%1.1%9.3%3.1%3.7%
D/E0.00.20.70.10.90.00.1
Net D/E0.00.20.60.00.80.00.1

Returns

NFLXDISWBDAMZNCMCSAAAPLMedian
NameNetflix Walt Dis.Warner B.Amazon.c.Comcast Apple  
1M Rtn-17.5%3.7%35.4%-4.8%-2.6%2.0%-0.3%
3M Rtn-19.9%-3.8%58.9%-0.9%-16.8%19.0%-2.3%
6M Rtn-21.5%-5.0%198.9%6.6%-20.7%42.0%0.8%
12M Rtn3.6%-0.7%148.4%-0.6%-29.2%12.7%1.5%
3Y Rtn199.5%20.5%173.0%147.0%-15.2%97.2%122.1%
1M Excs Rtn-17.4%-4.0%35.4%-7.0%-2.0%2.1%-3.0%
3M Excs Rtn-24.0%-6.7%50.9%-5.5%-18.8%14.5%-6.1%
6M Excs Rtn-35.7%-19.2%184.7%-7.6%-34.9%27.7%-13.4%
12M Excs Rtn-8.9%-15.0%162.2%-12.6%-41.6%-0.3%-10.8%
3Y Excs Rtn135.1%-50.4%105.6%82.1%-87.0%26.9%54.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Streaming revenues33,64031,47029,51524,75719,859
DVD revenues83146182239297
Total33,72331,61629,69824,99620,156


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity75,214,504
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025413.4%
Average Daily Volume35,126,358
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.14
Basic Shares Quantity4,244,550,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/21/2025-10.1%-11.2%-11.4%
7/17/2025-5.1%-7.3%-2.8%
4/17/20251.5%13.2%22.5%
10/17/202411.1%9.7%19.8%
7/18/2024-1.5%-1.4%4.8%
4/18/2024-9.1%-7.5%1.7%
1/23/202410.7%14.4%19.6%
10/18/202316.1%18.8%34.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive81014
# Negative15139
Median Positive10.9%12.6%12.2%
Median Negative-6.5%-7.5%-11.3%
Max Positive16.9%20.8%34.9%
Max Negative-35.1%-43.1%-49.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251022202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025718202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025418202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024127202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241018202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024719202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024422202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023126202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231020202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023721202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023421202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022126202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221020202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022721202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022421202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021127202210-K 12/31/2021