Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)
Market Price (6/21/2026): $20.475 | Market Cap: $9.4 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)
Market Price (6/21/2026): $20.475Market Cap: $9.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Cruise Travel, and Experiential Travel. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 160% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.5% Key risksNCLH key risks include a substantial debt load that [1] limits financial flexibility and [2] requires prioritizing debt reduction over shareholder returns. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Cruise Travel, and Experiential Travel. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 160% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.5% |
| Key risksNCLH key risks include a substantial debt load that [1] limits financial flexibility and [2] requires prioritizing debt reduction over shareholder returns. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) stock has lost about 20% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) significantly reduced its full-year 2026 financial guidance.
On May 4, 2026, the company reported its fiscal Q1 2026 results, which ended March 31, 2026. While adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23 beat analysts' estimates of $0.15, revenue of $2.33 billion fell short of the consensus estimate of $2.36 billion. More critically, NCLH lowered its full-year 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $1.45 to $1.79, a substantial cut from its prior guidance of $2.38. Similarly, full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance was reduced to between $2.48 billion and $2.64 billion, down from earlier expectations of approximately $2.95 billion. This revised outlook signaled diminished profit expectations for the remainder of the fiscal year.
2. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East negatively impacted the cruise sector, particularly European bookings.
The Middle East conflict, which began around February 28, 2026, cast a shadow over the cruise industry, driving up fuel costs and causing travelers, especially those planning European itineraries, to reconsider their plans. NCLH explicitly attributed the cut in its full-year net yield guidance by approximately 400 basis points to "European market pressure from the Middle East conflict". Reports of President Trump's comments regarding Iran further heightened concerns about regional resource pressures. This macroeconomic factor created significant headwinds for NCLH's operational environment and financial projections.
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Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) stock has lost about 20% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) significantly reduced its full-year 2026 financial guidance.
On May 4, 2026, the company reported its fiscal Q1 2026 results, which ended March 31, 2026. While adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23 beat analysts' estimates of $0.15, revenue of $2.33 billion fell short of the consensus estimate of $2.36 billion. More critically, NCLH lowered its full-year 2026 Adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $1.45 to $1.79, a substantial cut from its prior guidance of $2.38. Similarly, full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance was reduced to between $2.48 billion and $2.64 billion, down from earlier expectations of approximately $2.95 billion. This revised outlook signaled diminished profit expectations for the remainder of the fiscal year.
2. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East negatively impacted the cruise sector, particularly European bookings.
The Middle East conflict, which began around February 28, 2026, cast a shadow over the cruise industry, driving up fuel costs and causing travelers, especially those planning European itineraries, to reconsider their plans. NCLH explicitly attributed the cut in its full-year net yield guidance by approximately 400 basis points to "European market pressure from the Middle East conflict". Reports of President Trump's comments regarding Iran further heightened concerns about regional resource pressures. This macroeconomic factor created significant headwinds for NCLH's operational environment and financial projections.
3. The company acknowledged soft close-in booking demand and internal execution failures.
Alongside external pressures, NCLH's CEO, John Chidsey, admitted to "internal execution failures" and soft close-in booking demand contributing to the revised outlook. The company stated that it began fiscal year 2026 below expected booking levels, making it challenging to catch up. Net yield, a key industry metric measuring revenue per available passenger day after direct costs, declined by 1% in fiscal Q1 2026 compared to the prior year.
4. NCLH's elevated debt and leverage position made it more susceptible to market pressures.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio above 6 and a current ratio near 0.2, indicating a leveraged financial position. As of March 31, 2026, the company reported total debt of $15.2 billion and net debt of $15.0 billion, with net leverage ending the quarter at 5.3x. This substantial leverage makes the company particularly sensitive to macroeconomic headwinds and shifts in investor risk appetite, amplifying the impact of negative news and guidance revisions on its stock performance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -17.5% change in NCLH stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.79 | 20.44 | -17.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,693 | 10,031 | 3.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.8% | 5.7% | -17.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.8 | 16.4 | -2.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 451 | 457 | -1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -17.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCLH | -17.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.2% | 70.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.5% | 79.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.7% change in NCLH stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 30.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.46 | 20.44 | 10.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,693 | 10,031 | 3.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.8% | 5.7% | -17.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.5 | 16.4 | 30.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 451 | 457 | -1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.7% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCLH | 10.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 55.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.5% | 61.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 15.8% change in NCLH stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 79.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 17.65 | 20.44 | 15.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,416 | 10,031 | 6.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.1% | 5.7% | -37.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.1 | 16.4 | 79.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 441 | 457 | -3.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 15.8% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCLH | 15.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 51.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 10.5% | 53.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 37.6% change in NCLH stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 63.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.85 | 20.44 | 37.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,144 | 10,031 | 63.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.0 | 0.9 | -8.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 423 | 457 | -7.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 37.6% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NCLH | 37.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.7% | 52.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 58.4% | 55.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NCLH Return | -18% | -41% | 64% | 28% | -13% | -11% | -22% |
| Peers Return | -4% | -49% | 113% | 47% | 32% | 27% | 157% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NCLH Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 47% | 58% | 62% | 56% | 71% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NCLH Max Drawdown | -47% | -56% | -43% | -30% | -47% | -41% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -42% | -68% | -41% | -28% | -38% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: RCL, CCL, VIK, LIND. See NCLH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NCLH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.3% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 72 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -53.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 389 days | 427 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -36.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 718 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Norwegian Cruise Line's stock fell -20.9% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 26.3% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | NCLH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.3% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 72 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -53.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 389 days | 427 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 84 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -36.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 718 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Norwegian Cruise Line's stock fell -20.9% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 26.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH)
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) operates as a leading global cruise company, specializing in providing leisure vacation experiences. The company manages a substantial fleet of cruise ships, offering a wide spectrum of itineraries and travel styles to passengers worldwide.
NCLH operates under three distinct brands: Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises. These brands collectively offer diverse cruise products, ranging from short three-day excursions to extensive 180-day voyages. Their itineraries cover a vast array of global destinations, including popular regions like the Caribbean, Mediterranean, Alaska, Asia, and the South Pacific. As of late 2021, the company operated 28 ships, providing approximately 59,150 berths.
The company primarily serves an international customer base across key markets in North America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region. NCLH distributes its cruise products through multiple channels, including traditional retail and travel advisors, direct onboard sales, and through specialized bookings for meetings, incentives, and corporate charters.
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Norwegian Cruise Line is like the Marriott International of the seas, managing multiple cruise brands that cater to different segments of travelers with a full hospitality experience.
Alternatively, think of Norwegian Cruise Line as MGM Resorts or Caesars Entertainment, but floating and traveling to global destinations.
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Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) provides the following major services:
- Cruise Vacations: The company offers a wide range of leisure travel experiences on ships, featuring various itineraries, destinations, and amenities under its multiple brands.
- Meetings, Incentives, and Charters: NCLH provides specialized services for corporate events, group incentive travel, and private full-ship charters for organizations and large groups.
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Major Customers of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH)
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. primarily sells its cruise vacations directly to individual consumers rather than to other companies as their end-customers. Based on its three distinct brands and diverse offerings, its major customer categories include:
- Mainstream Leisure Travelers: This category includes a broad demographic of individuals, couples, and families seeking contemporary cruise experiences. They are attracted to diverse itineraries, a wide range of onboard activities, entertainment, and a freestyle cruising approach, primarily offered by the Norwegian Cruise Line brand for various vacation occasions.
- Premium and Destination-Focused Travelers: This segment consists of more affluent and experienced travelers who prioritize immersive destination experiences, sophisticated culinary programs, and longer, often exotic itineraries. These customers typically value elegance, enrichment, and a more refined onboard atmosphere, catered to by the Oceania Cruises brand.
- Ultra-Luxury and All-Inclusive Seekers: This category comprises highly affluent individuals who demand the highest level of personalized service, spacious and luxurious accommodations, gourmet dining, and an all-inclusive, worry-free travel experience. They seek exclusivity, extensive amenities, and often longer, unique global itineraries, predominantly served by the Regent Seven Seas Cruises brand.
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John W. Chidsey – President & Chief Executive Officer
John W. Chidsey was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. in February 2026. He previously served as CEO of Subway Restaurants, where he led a multi-year transformation to modernize operations and reposition the brand. Before that, he was CEO of Burger King Holdings, driving operational discipline and guiding the company through significant changes. Chidsey also held senior leadership positions at Cendant Corporation, serving as Chairman and CEO of its Vehicle Services and Financial Services divisions, which included brands like Avis Rent A Car, Budget Rent A Car Systems, PHH, and Wright Express. He began his career in financial roles at PepsiCo.
Mark Kempa – Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Mark Kempa is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., appointed to this position in August 2018, having served as interim CFO since March 2018. With over 20 years of financial experience, Kempa has been instrumental in key company milestones, including the successful initial public offering in 2013 and the acquisition of Prestige Cruises International, Inc. in 2014. He also spent three years in Germany, representing the financial interests of the company's newbuild program. Prior to joining Norwegian, Kempa served as Assistant Controller for International Voyager Media, a travel portfolio company.
Daniel Farkas – Executive Vice President, General Counsel & Secretary
Daniel Farkas serves as the Executive Vice President, General Counsel & Secretary for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. He brings over 25 years of legal experience to the role and oversees all aspects of the company's Legal division, including Risk Management, Corporate Governance and Compliance, Passenger and Crew Claims, and Governmental Affairs. Farkas also holds the position of the company's Corporate Ethics Officer.
Patrik Dahlgren – Executive Vice President, Chief Vessel Operations and Newbuild Officer
Patrik Dahlgren is the Executive Vice President, Chief Vessel Operations and Newbuild Officer for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. In this role, he is responsible for overseeing marine and technical operations, hotel operations, entertainment, cruise programs, and security across Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' three brands.
Jason Montague – Chief Luxury Officer
Jason Montague serves as the Chief Luxury Officer for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings. He is responsible for overseeing the Regent Seven Seas Cruises and Oceania Cruises brands, specifically focusing on their long-term newbuild and refurbishment programs. Before this appointment, Montague served as a Special Advisor to NCLH for two years, following his tenure as President and Chief Executive Officer of the Regent Seven Seas Cruises brand until 2022.
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The most significant risk to Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is **execution risk and strategic missteps**. Both the company's new CEO, John W. Chidsey, and CFO, Mark Kempa, have candidly described a significant portion of the company's performance struggles as "self-inflicted wounds," stemming from internal execution failures, strategic misalignments, and operational inefficiencies. These issues are particularly prevalent within its largest brand, Norwegian Cruise Line. Activist investor Elliott Investment Management has also criticized NCLH's recurrent execution errors and strategic misjudgments, advocating for a board overhaul to enhance accountability. Specific examples include poorly timed capacity expansion in the Caribbean and past underinvestment in technology, revenue management, and customer service systems.
A second major risk is the company's **high debt load and sensitivity to interest rates**. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings carries approximately $14.6 billion in debt, making it highly susceptible to fluctuations in interest rates. High debt servicing costs reduce net income and restrict the cash available for essential fleet reinvestment. The company's balance sheet strength is rated poorly due to these high debt levels, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.62. An Altman Z-Score of 0.41 also indicates a potential risk of bankruptcy.
Finally, **geopolitical instability and volatile fuel costs** represent a notable external risk. Tensions in regions such as the Middle East and parts of Europe have led to forced itinerary changes, affecting higher-margin Mediterranean and Suez Canal routes. Such instability can also drive up oil prices, posing a significant headwind for the company's margins, even with hedging strategies in place. Additionally, safety concerns in various destinations, such as recent cancellations in Mexico due to escalating violence, can directly impact tourism demand and revenue.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH)
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic initiatives and favorable market conditions.
- Fleet Expansion and Increased Capacity: NCLH is actively expanding its fleet, with new ships like the Norwegian Aqua and Oceania Allura already delivered or scheduled for delivery. These additions directly increase the company's "Capacity Days," leading to a greater number of available berths and itineraries to sell. The company has also announced orders for additional new ships for its brands, signaling sustained capacity growth into the future.
- Strong Pricing and Net Yield Growth: The company has demonstrated a strong ability to increase ticket prices and improve Net Yield (revenue per capacity day). This is supported by robust consumer demand and strategic pricing initiatives across its multi-brand portfolio, which includes Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises. Analysts and company guidance indicate an expectation for continued growth in Net Yield.
- Enhanced Onboard Revenue Generation: NCLH is focusing on maximizing ancillary revenue streams from onboard sales. This includes sales from beverages, specialty dining, shore excursions, and casinos. The company has reported significant increases in pre-booked onboard revenue per passenger cruise day, indicating successful efforts to drive guest spending once onboard.
- Sustained Strong Consumer Demand: Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings continues to benefit from resilient consumer demand across all its brands. The company has reported high occupancy rates and record-high booked positions and pricing, with strong advance ticket sales. This robust demand environment allows NCLH to effectively fill its increasing capacity and maintain strong pricing power.
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Share Repurchases
- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. has shown minimal to no significant share repurchases in the most recent years, with data indicating $0.00 for recent buybacks and "null" for last twelve months' stock repurchase activity.
Share Issuance
- Shares outstanding increased significantly in 2024 by 20.5% from 2023.
- Shares outstanding increased by 14.86% in 2022 from 2021, and by 1.82% in 2023 from 2022.
- As of December 2025, the company reported Ordinary Share Capital of $455.26 million.
Inbound Investments
- In Q1 2025, Ariel Investments LLC significantly increased its stake in NCLH by 126.8%, acquiring over 5 million additional shares, bringing its total holding to approximately 9.08 million shares valued at about $172 million.
- Also in Q1 2025, Invesco Ltd. increased its holdings by 22.7%, purchasing over 2 million additional shares, making their total investment worth around $217 million.
- In May 2020, a global private equity firm made a $400 million private investment in NCLH to support the company.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures averaged $1.489 billion for the fiscal years ending December 2020 to 2024.
- The company's capital expenditures peaked at $3.065 billion in September 2025.
- Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings has 17 new passenger vessels on order through 2037, which will add 46,000 incremental berths, signifying a primary focus on fleet expansion and capacity growth.
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Peer Comparisons
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 30.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 42.6 |
| Rev LTM | 10,031 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,593 |
| FCF LTM | 1,303 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,168 |
| CFO LTM | 2,715 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,177 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 19.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 19.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 136.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $20.44 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 9.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/18/2013 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -24.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $18.27 | $21.01 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 11.9% | -2.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 57.8% | 53.4% |
| Downside Capture | 335.56 | 231.34 |
| Upside Capture | 205.21 | 177.64 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 67.4% | 51.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.65 | 3.60 | 2.94 | 2.60 | 2.25 | 1.81 |
| Up Beta | 3.78 | 4.15 | 3.93 | 3.45 | 2.91 | 1.78 |
| Down Beta | 3.16 | 3.77 | 1.97 | 2.11 | 2.30 | 1.69 |
| Up Capture | 238% | 154% | 168% | 268% | 233% | 703% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 18 | 25 | 55 | 115 | 369 |
| Down Capture | 568% | 589% | 328% | 215% | 169% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 22 | 37 | 67 | 131 | 374 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NCLH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCLH | 12.4% | 53.4% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.3% | 18.4% | 0.49 | 55.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.5% | 12.4% | 1.61 | 51.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 8.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.8% | 18.8% | 0.83 | -37.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.52 | 34.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.0% | 42.5% | -1.08 | 15.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NCLH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCLH | -8.8% | 57.7% | 0.07 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 7.1% | 23.8% | 0.26 | 60.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 56.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 3.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | 4.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 40.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 54.2% | 0.40 | 25.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NCLH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCLH | -7.8% | 62.0% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.6% | 22.1% | 0.52 | 56.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 53.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.1% | 0.63 | 0.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 14.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 44.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 17.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/5/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/4/2026 | -8.6% | -9.2% | -3.6% |
| 3/2/2026 | -10.5% | -19.1% | -28.8% |
| 11/4/2025 | -15.3% | -14.2% | -15.2% |
| 7/31/2025 | 9.2% | 6.0% | 8.5% |
| 4/30/2025 | -7.8% | -0.6% | 1.3% |
| 2/27/2025 | -5.3% | -15.0% | -20.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | 6.3% | 16.4% | 12.8% |
| 7/31/2024 | -0.7% | -16.5% | -3.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 6.0% | 9.8% |
| Median Negative | -8.3% | -12.5% | -16.0% |
| Max Positive | 19.8% | 21.9% | 28.5% |
| Max Negative | -15.3% | -19.1% | -28.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/4/2026 | -8.6% | -9.2% | -3.6% |
| 3/2/2026 | -10.5% | -19.1% | -28.8% |
| 11/4/2025 | -15.3% | -14.2% | -15.2% |
| 7/31/2025 | 9.2% | 6.0% | 8.5% |
| 4/30/2025 | -7.8% | -0.6% | 1.3% |
| 2/27/2025 | -5.3% | -15.0% | -20.6% |
| 10/31/2024 | 6.3% | 16.4% | 12.8% |
| 7/31/2024 | -0.7% | -16.5% | -3.0% |
| 5/1/2024 | -15.0% | -17.5% | -13.1% |
| 2/27/2024 | 19.8% | 21.9% | 26.6% |
| 11/1/2023 | -3.7% | -1.5% | 12.3% |
| 8/1/2023 | -12.1% | -16.3% | -23.4% |
| 5/1/2023 | 8.9% | 5.8% | 11.0% |
| 2/28/2023 | -10.2% | -1.1% | -24.5% |
| 11/8/2022 | 3.7% | 7.2% | -7.3% |
| 8/9/2022 | -10.6% | 4.7% | 3.8% |
| 5/10/2022 | 1.6% | 0.9% | -5.0% |
| 2/24/2022 | 0.4% | -1.2% | 2.4% |
| 11/3/2021 | 1.8% | 3.6% | -28.6% |
| 8/6/2021 | 2.9% | 6.8% | 1.8% |
| 5/6/2021 | -6.8% | -12.5% | 7.6% |
| 2/25/2021 | -8.0% | 5.9% | -16.7% |
| 11/9/2020 | -6.5% | -0.9% | 26.7% |
| 8/6/2020 | 3.8% | 11.0% | 28.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 6.0% | 9.8% |
| Median Negative | -8.3% | -12.5% | -16.0% |
| Max Positive | 19.8% | 21.9% | 28.5% |
| Max Negative | -15.3% | -19.1% | -28.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/05/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/01/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/09/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/09/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/15/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/27/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/08/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/08/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Net Yield | -0.04 | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 632.00 Mil | 22.7% | Higher New | Actual: 515.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |||
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS | 0.38 | 137.5% | Higher New | Actual: 0.16 for Q1 2026 | |||
| 2026 Net Yield | -0.05 | -0.04 | Lowered | Guidance: 0 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 2.48 Bil | 2.56 Bil | -13.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.95 Bil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 1.45 | 1.62 | -31.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.38 for 2026 | ||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/2/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Net Yield | -0.02 | ||||||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 515.00 Mil | ||||||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EPS | 0.16 | ||||||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted Net Income | 77.00 Mil | ||||||
| Q1 2026 Occupancy | 1.04 | ||||||
| 2026 Net Yield | 0 | -100.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.02 for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 2.95 Bil | 8.5% | Raised | Guidance: 2.72 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 2.38 | 13.3% | Raised | Guidance: 2.1 for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | 1.12 Bil | 6.8% | Raised | Guidance: 1.04 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Occupancy | 1.06 | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/3/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pagliuca, Stephen G | Direct | Buy | 6032026 | 18.06 | 685,000 | 12,371,100 | 25,083,751 | Form | |
| 2 | Pagliuca, Stephen G | Direct | Buy | 6032026 | 18.16 | 695,000 | 12,621,200 | 12,783,042 | Form | |
| 3 | Chidsey, John | President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 5262026 | 16.37 | 153,000 | 2,504,610 | 18,660,818 | Form |
| 4 | Cohen, Jonathan Z | Direct | Buy | 5212026 | 15.83 | 30,000 | 474,900 | 615,977 | Form | |
| 5 | Cil, Jose E | Trust | Buy | 5192026 | 14.91 | 10,000 | 149,100 | 1,107,738 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pagliuca, Stephen G | Direct | Buy | 6032026 | 18.06 | 685,000 | 12,371,100 | 25,083,751 | Form | |
| 2 | Pagliuca, Stephen G | Direct | Buy | 6032026 | 18.16 | 695,000 | 12,621,200 | 12,783,042 | Form | |
| 3 | Chidsey, John | President and CEO | Direct | Buy | 5262026 | 16.37 | 153,000 | 2,504,610 | 18,660,818 | Form |
| 4 | Cohen, Jonathan Z | Direct | Buy | 5212026 | 15.83 | 30,000 | 474,900 | 615,977 | Form | |
| 5 | Cil, Jose E | Trust | Buy | 5192026 | 14.91 | 10,000 | 149,100 | 1,107,738 | Form | |
| 6 | Cil, Jose E | Trust | Buy | 5192026 | 15.25 | 5,000 | 76,250 | 980,499 | Form | |
| 7 | Lansberry, Kevin Allen | Direct | Buy | 5112026 | 17.28 | 11,400 | 196,992 | 350,991 | Form | |
| 8 | Byng-Thorne, Zillah | Direct | Buy | 5112026 | 17.67 | 25,015 | 442,015 | 1,763,660 | Form | |
| 9 | Byng-Thorne, Zillah | Spouse | Buy | 5112026 | 17.83 | 4,452 | 79,379 | 458,980 | Form | |
| 10 | Ashby, Faye L | SVP & Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 21.00 | 5,250 | 110,250 | 2,737,770 | Form |
| 11 | Dahlgren, Patrik | EVP, Chief Vessel Ops & NO | Direct | Buy | 11252025 | 17.94 | 5,550 | 99,578 | 2,598,307 | Form |
| 12 | Curtis, Harry C | Direct | Buy | 11122025 | 19.25 | 5,000 | 96,250 | 968,751 | Form | |
| 13 | David, Stella | Direct | Buy | 11102025 | 18.59 | 6,986 | 129,870 | 1,923,582 | Form | |
| 14 | Byng-Thorne, Zillah | Direct | Buy | 11102025 | 18.11 | 29,008 | 525,335 | 1,195,568 | Form | |
| 15 | Kempa, Mark | EVP & CFO | Direct | Buy | 11062025 | 18.53 | 10,635 | 197,051 | 6,843,539 | Form |
| 16 | Montague, Jason | Chief Luxury Officer | Trust | Buy | 11062025 | 18.81 | 13,400 | 252,020 | 252,020 | Form |
| 17 | Sommer, Harry | Pres. & CEO of NCLH | Direct | Buy | 11062025 | 18.52 | 25,000 | 462,932 | 13,345,937 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Resources |
| Skift |
| Hotel News Now |
| Cruise Industry News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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