Enphase Energy (ENPH)
Market Price (12/13/2025): $32.215 | Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Enphase Energy (ENPH)
Market Price (12/13/2025): $32.215Market Cap: $4.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductor Materials & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -117%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -163% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23% | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -47% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -117%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -163% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.5% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ENPH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Enphase Energy (ENPH) experienced a decline of 14.6% during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 13, 2025, primarily due to several key factors. **1. Lower-than-expected Q4 2025 Revenue Guidance.** While Enphase Energy reported strong Q3 2025 earnings, beating analyst estimates for revenue and EPS, the company issued significantly weaker guidance for Q4 2025, forecasting revenue between $310 million and $350 million, which was below analyst expectations. This cautious outlook overshadowed the positive quarterly results, leading to a sharp stock decline in after-hours trading following the October 28, 2025, earnings release. **2. Softening Demand, Particularly in Europe.** Management cited weakening demand as a primary reason for the subdued Q4 2025 guidance, specifically noting a significant slowdown in Europe, a region historically vital for Enphase's growth. This regional demand softness and higher financing costs for homeowners contributed to investor caution. **3. Concerns Over Expiring U.S. Tax Credits.** Regulatory headwinds, including the accelerated phasing out of key renewable tax credits (48E solar/25D) starting in 2026, triggered near-term growth headwinds and demand visibility risks for Enphase Energy. This raised questions about the sustainability of future growth. **4. Numerous Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions.** Several financial analysts adjusted their ratings and price targets for ENPH during this period. For example, Mizuho downgraded the stock from "Outperform" to "Neutral" in October, and JP Morgan lowered its price target multiple times, including from $37 to $33 in December 2025. This trend of downward revisions by analysts contributed to negative market sentiment. **5. Underperformance Compared to Peers.** Some reports indicated that Enphase continued to underperform its peers from August 2025 onwards, experiencing a double-digit correction despite some competitors showing recoveries. This suggested a lack of bullish support for the stock amidst broader market conditions.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ENPH Return | 572% | 4% | 45% | -50% | -48% | -52% | 26% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ENPH Win Rate | 83% | 50% | 67% | 25% | 33% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ENPH Max Drawdown | -8% | -35% | -34% | -71% | -55% | -62% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SEDG, TSLA, GNRC, RUN, SPWR. See ENPH Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ENPH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -77.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 344.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 146.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 54 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -63.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 171.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 176 days | 120 days |
Compare to FSLR, RUN, SEDG, CSIQ, MAXN
In The Past
Enphase Energy's stock fell -77.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/2/2022. A -77.5% loss requires a 344.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ENPH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 14.4% | 14.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.9% | 11.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.4% | 13.4% | 0.0% |
| 05312025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -30.3% | -20.2% | -36.9% |
| 11302024 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -42.0% | -59.6% | -63.4% |
| 08312023 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.4% | -4.3% | -40.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 14.4% | 14.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.9% | 11.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.4% | 13.4% | 0.0% |
| 05312025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -30.3% | -20.2% | -36.9% |
| 11302024 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -42.0% | -59.6% | -63.4% |
| 08312023 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.4% | -4.3% | -40.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Enphase Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 30.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| Rev LTM | 1,915 |
| Op Inc LTM | 77 |
| FCF LTM | 140 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 405 |
| CFO LTM | 173 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 518 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 23.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -5.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 4.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.2 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | 9.0 |
| P/E | 11.0 |
| P/CFO | 17.3 |
| Total Yield | -12.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -43.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 13.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 1.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -111.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | -15.1% | -21.0% | -24.2% |
| 7/22/2025 | -14.2% | -21.2% | -16.0% |
| 4/22/2025 | -15.6% | -10.7% | -11.5% |
| 2/4/2025 | -1.5% | -5.5% | -11.4% |
| 10/22/2024 | -14.9% | -9.9% | -31.3% |
| 7/23/2024 | 12.8% | 5.5% | 15.1% |
| 4/23/2024 | -5.6% | -4.2% | 6.8% |
| 2/6/2024 | 16.9% | 22.9% | 29.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 12.0% | 13.5% | 17.6% |
| Median Negative | -14.2% | -10.3% | -17.4% |
| Max Positive | 42.4% | 37.0% | 47.1% |
| Max Negative | -25.7% | -30.7% | -40.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7222025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4222025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2102025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10222024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7232024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4232024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2092024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4252023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2132023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10252022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7262022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4262022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |