SunPower (SPWR)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $1.63 | Market Cap: $131.7 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
SunPower (SPWR)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $1.63Market Cap: $131.7 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 308% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -53 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 99% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -35% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 308% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -53 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -22% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 99% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -35% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SPWR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The public company SunPower (SPWR) experienced a 6.6% stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, driven by several key developments: 1. Strategic Acquisitions Expanding Market Presence. SunPower significantly bolstered its market position through key acquisitions during this period. In late September 2025, the company completed its acquisition of Sunder Energy, which was a transformative deal positioning SunPower as the fifth-largest residential solar provider in the U.S. and was expected to more than double Q4 2025 bookings. This expansion continued with the signing of a Letter of Intent to acquire Ambia Solar on November 11, 2025, and the subsequent completion of the $37.5 million acquisition in late November 2025, further solidifying its top-five ranking and leading to increased revenue estimates. 2. Strong Financial Performance and Upgraded Outlook. The company reported a significant financial turnaround, announcing a record operating profit of $3.12 million on $70.0 million in revenue for Q3 2025. This marked its third consecutive profitable quarter after four years of losses. Furthermore, SunPower projected continued growth, forecasting additional revenue and profit records for Q4 2025. Following the Ambia acquisition, the Q4 2025 revenue estimate was revised upwards to $88 million, with expectations of at least $2 million in operating income in Q1 2026, indicating sustained profitability.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SPWR Return | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Return | 179% | -19% | 11% | -18% | -34% | 70% | 132% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SPWR Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 25% | 38% | 31% | 29% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SPWR Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -30% | -27% | -37% | -40% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FSLR, RUN, SEDG, AMBQ, GLSA. See SPWR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
SPWR has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 278 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1183 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SPWR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.9% | 1.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for SunPower
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 27.99 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.1 |
| Rev LTM | 1,045 |
| Op Inc LTM | -53 |
| FCF LTM | -54 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -557 |
| CFO LTM | -16 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -110 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 39.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 10.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -21.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -38.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 9.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -22.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -12.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -22.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -19.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.1 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | -2.2 |
| P/E | -2.5 |
| P/CFO | 10.9 |
| Total Yield | -28.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -15.8% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 68.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 71.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | -40.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 53.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 43.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -113.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8132025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5192025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4302025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11182024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5152024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4012024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 6272023 | S-4/A 4/2/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4102023 | S-4/A 12/31/2022 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Gishen Adam | 10282025 | Sell | 2.04 | 10,000 | 20,400 | 224,398 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |