Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 3.7x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21%
Key risks
EBAY key risks include [1] maintaining user trust by combating the fraud and counterfeit products inherent to its open marketplace model.
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
 
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
 
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more.
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more.
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 3.7x
6 Key risks
EBAY key risks include [1] maintaining user trust by combating the fraud and counterfeit products inherent to its open marketplace model.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

EBAY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

On October 29, 2025, eBay's stock experienced a decline of approximately 6.2% in after-hours trading following the release of its third-quarter 2025 financial results and its outlook for the fourth quarter. Key factors contributing to this movement included:

1. eBay's Fourth Quarter 2025 Operating Margin Guidance Fell Below Analyst Expectations. The company forecast non-GAAP operating margins for the fourth quarter of 2025 to be between 25.8% and 26.3%, which was lower than the market consensus of 27.2%.

2. Anticipated Deceleration in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) Growth for Q4 2025. Management projected moderating growth in GMV for the fourth quarter, with an expected FX-neutral growth of 4-6% year over year. This deceleration was attributed to factors such as the full impact of the removal of global de minimis exemptions, tougher comparisons to strong trading card performance in the prior year, and a robust holiday season in the previous period.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
EBAY Return41%34%-36%8%45%37%156%
Peers Return127%8%-33%29%18%5%162%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
EBAY Win Rate50%58%33%50%58%75% 
Peers Win Rate67%55%37%58%55%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
EBAY Max Drawdown-27%0%-44%-7%-7%-3% 
Peers Max Drawdown-20%-15%-46%-17%-15%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, MELI, ETSY, TGT. See EBAY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventEBAYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-54.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven118.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,026 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven32 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-43.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven527 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-74.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven295.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,137 days1,480 days

Compare to AMZN, WMT, FICO, TGT, ETSY


In The Past

eBay's stock fell -54.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/22/2021. A -54.3% loss requires a 118.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About eBay (EBAY)

Interactive Breakdown

eBay Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than eBay (EBAY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to EBAY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.7%13.7%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.6%3.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.4%18.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.9%11.9%-1.6%
EBAY_10102025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10102025EBAYeBayQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-4.1%-4.1%-9.6%
EBAY_6302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302022EBAYeBayDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.4%9.6%-11.2%
EBAY_10312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312018EBAYeBayDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
30.7%22.8%-10.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.7%13.7%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.8%5.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.6%3.6%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
18.4%18.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
11.9%11.9%-1.6%
EBAY_10102025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10102025EBAYeBayQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-4.1%-4.1%-9.6%
EBAY_6302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield06302022EBAYeBayDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.4%9.6%-11.2%
EBAY_10312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312018EBAYeBayDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
30.7%22.8%-10.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for eBay

Peers to compare with:

Financials

EBAYAMZNWMTMELIETSYTGTMedian
NameeBay Amazon.c.Walmart MercadoL.Etsy Target  
Mkt Price84.66227.35114.361,997.6154.3398.01106.19
Mkt Cap39.02,418.3911.9101.35.444.572.9
Rev LTM10,470670,038703,06126,1932,854105,24265,718
Op Inc LTM2,23876,19028,9763,1323945,2044,168
FCF LTM1,40913,48115,2638,6106353,0095,810
FCF 3Y Avg1,76221,67714,9846,3706643,7325,051
CFO LTM1,912121,13740,9779,8316916,7748,302
CFO 3Y Avg2,24496,97737,5887,1697097,6467,408

Growth & Margins

EBAYAMZNWMTMELIETSYTGTMedian
NameeBay Amazon.c.Walmart MercadoL.Etsy Target  
Rev Chg LTM2.7%10.9%4.3%36.9%2.0%-2.2%3.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.5%11.3%5.4%39.5%4.9%-1.1%5.2%
Rev Chg Q6.1%13.3%5.8%39.5%2.4%-1.6%6.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.5%3.0%1.4%8.7%0.6%-0.4%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM21.4%11.4%4.1%12.0%13.8%4.9%11.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg21.2%7.9%4.1%13.1%13.2%5.1%10.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%0.3%-0.1%-0.3%-0.2%-0.2%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM18.3%18.1%5.8%37.5%24.2%6.4%18.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg22.1%15.8%5.6%35.9%25.4%7.2%19.0%
FCF/Rev LTM13.5%2.0%2.2%32.9%22.3%2.9%8.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg17.4%3.5%2.2%32.1%23.8%3.5%10.5%

Valuation

EBAYAMZNWMTMELIETSYTGTMedian
NameeBay Amazon.c.Walmart MercadoL.Etsy Target  
Mkt Cap39.02,418.3911.9101.35.444.572.9
P/S3.73.61.33.91.90.42.8
P/EBIT14.128.427.434.013.08.420.7
P/E17.934.239.848.829.611.831.9
P/CFO20.420.022.310.37.86.615.1
Total Yield6.9%2.9%3.3%2.1%3.4%13.1%3.3%
Dividend Yield1.4%0.0%0.8%0.0%0.0%4.6%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.0%1.1%2.5%6.7%9.7%7.0%6.3%
D/E0.20.10.10.10.60.50.1
Net D/E0.10.00.10.10.30.40.1

Returns

EBAYAMZNWMTMELIETSYTGTMedian
NameeBay Amazon.c.Walmart MercadoL.Etsy Target  
1M Rtn5.1%3.0%8.8%2.3%2.3%11.9%4.1%
3M Rtn-6.8%-1.8%12.0%-18.5%-16.4%12.6%-4.3%
6M Rtn9.8%8.4%19.5%-16.9%-3.3%5.0%6.7%
12M Rtn32.2%1.1%25.2%16.1%-4.4%-22.2%8.6%
3Y Rtn123.5%171.3%148.0%128.8%-57.3%-23.0%126.1%
1M Excs Rtn1.6%-0.8%11.0%-6.7%-0.6%11.0%0.5%
3M Excs Rtn-8.3%-2.2%9.3%-20.9%-14.0%12.6%-5.3%
6M Excs Rtn-2.5%-4.4%3.9%-32.0%-12.7%-9.5%-6.9%
12M Excs Rtn20.9%-14.6%8.0%-2.5%-23.8%-35.2%-8.6%
3Y Excs Rtn33.9%77.2%71.6%59.3%-129.9%-99.7%46.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment10,112    
Marketplace 9,79510,4208,8948,636
Total10,1129,79510,4208,8948,636


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity14,929,163
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202513.1%
Average Daily Volume3,864,043
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.86
Basic Shares Quantity461,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2025-15.9%-18.6%-16.6%
7/30/202518.3%19.3%19.6%
2/26/2025-8.2%-3.7%-2.9%
10/30/2024-8.2%-2.5%1.5%
7/31/20241.1%-0.9%5.4%
5/1/2024-3.3%-2.7%6.7%
1/24/20241.3%-1.3%5.8%
11/7/2023-2.0%-1.1%2.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive8711
# Negative141511
Median Positive1.8%6.6%5.8%
Median Negative-7.1%-3.7%-7.1%
Max Positive18.3%19.3%19.6%
Max Negative-15.9%-18.6%-16.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021