DexCom (DXCM)
Market Price (11/1/2026): $0 | Market Cap: $-Investor Relations Sector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
DexCom (DXCM)
Market Price (11/1/2026): $0Market Cap: $-Sector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 24% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.6% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.8 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Diabetes Management, Wearable Health Devices, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 24x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 31x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% Key risksDXCM key risks include [1] heightened regulatory scrutiny, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 24% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 43%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, CFO LTM is 2.2 Bil |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.6% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Aging Population & Chronic Disease, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Diabetes Management, Wearable Health Devices, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 24x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 31x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% |
| Key risksDXCM key risks include [1] heightened regulatory scrutiny, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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DexCom (DXCM) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Financial Performance Offset Earlier Market Weakness.
DexCom reported robust financial results for fiscal Q3 2026, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.73, exceeding consensus estimates of $0.66-$0.68, and revenue that grew 11% year-over-year to $1.344 billion, surpassing the $1.33 billion forecast. The company further bolstered investor confidence by raising its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $5.20-$5.25 billion, representing 12-13% annual growth. This positive earnings report, released on October 29, 2026, helped the stock rebound after experiencing a roughly 9.4% decline in the 30 days prior, bringing its price back to levels observed earlier in the period since July 31, 2026.
2. Mixed Financial Metrics, Including Decelerating International Growth and Reduced Operating Cash Flow.
Despite the overall revenue beat, DexCom's international revenue growth decelerated to 5% year-over-year in fiscal Q3 2026, a slowdown attributed to challenging comparisons from substantial reimbursement wins in the latter half of 2025. Additionally, the company's GAAP operating cash flow for fiscal Q3 2026 decreased significantly by 51% year-over-year to $325.6 million, primarily due to the absence of an $82.5 million equity-investment gain recorded in the prior year. These specific financial metrics likely tempered sustained upward momentum for the stock during the period.
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DexCom (DXCM) stock has remained largely at the same level since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Financial Performance Offset Earlier Market Weakness.
DexCom reported robust financial results for fiscal Q3 2026, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.73, exceeding consensus estimates of $0.66-$0.68, and revenue that grew 11% year-over-year to $1.344 billion, surpassing the $1.33 billion forecast. The company further bolstered investor confidence by raising its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $5.20-$5.25 billion, representing 12-13% annual growth. This positive earnings report, released on October 29, 2026, helped the stock rebound after experiencing a roughly 9.4% decline in the 30 days prior, bringing its price back to levels observed earlier in the period since July 31, 2026.
2. Mixed Financial Metrics, Including Decelerating International Growth and Reduced Operating Cash Flow.
Despite the overall revenue beat, DexCom's international revenue growth decelerated to 5% year-over-year in fiscal Q3 2026, a slowdown attributed to challenging comparisons from substantial reimbursement wins in the latter half of 2025. Additionally, the company's GAAP operating cash flow for fiscal Q3 2026 decreased significantly by 51% year-over-year to $325.6 million, primarily due to the absence of an $82.5 million equity-investment gain recorded in the prior year. These specific financial metrics likely tempered sustained upward momentum for the stock during the period.
3. Strategic Product Advancements and Capital Allocation Initiatives Provided Underlying Support.
DexCom continued to advance its product pipeline and market presence, including the ongoing rollout of its G7 15-day extended-wear sensor, which is projected to reach nearly 50% of the U.S. customer base by the end of 2026. The company also published significant clinical trial results for its G7 system for people with Type 2 diabetes not using insulin, which could influence future Medicare coverage. Furthermore, DexCom authorized an additional $1.0 billion share repurchase program, demonstrating management's confidence in the company's financial health and providing a mechanism to support shareholder value.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.4% change in DXCM stock from 7/31/2026 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -3.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 83.45 | 82.29 | -1.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,969 | 5,104 | 2.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.1% | 19.4% | -3.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.9 | 31.1 | -2.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 382 | 375 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.4% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DXCM | -1.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.2% | 8.0% |
| Sector (XLV) | 13.7% | 26.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 38.2% change in DXCM stock from 4/30/2026 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 26.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 59.55 | 82.29 | 38.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,818 | 5,104 | 5.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.3% | 19.4% | 0.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.6 | 31.1 | 26.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 385 | 375 | 2.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 38.2% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DXCM | 38.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.4% | 5.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 27.2% | 22.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 41.3% change in DXCM stock from 10/31/2025 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 58.22 | 82.29 | 41.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,516 | 5,104 | 13.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.0% | 19.4% | 21.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.6 | 31.1 | -1.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 391 | 375 | 4.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 41.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DXCM | 41.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.7% | 20.9% |
| Sector (XLV) | 29.8% | 31.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.4% change in DXCM stock from 10/31/2023 to 10/31/2026 was primarily driven by a -65.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 10312026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 88.83 | 82.29 | -7.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,403 | 5,104 | 50.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.1% | 19.4% | 75.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 91.1 | 31.1 | -65.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 387 | 375 | 3.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 10/31/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DXCM | -7.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.9% | 26.5% |
| Sector (XLV) | 55.5% | 26.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DXCM Return | 45% | -16% | 10% | -37% | -15% | 24% | -11% |
| Peers Return | 58% | -33% | -19% | 8% | -8% | 0% | -14% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DXCM Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 50% | 33% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 43% | 42% | 48% | 45% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DXCM Max Drawdown | -24% | -49% | -45% | -54% | -40% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -49% | -47% | -34% | -40% | -43% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ABT, MDT, PODD, TNDM, SENS. See DXCM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/30/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DXCM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 495 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 146 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -47.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 364 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -34.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -14.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -35.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 514 days | 6 days |
In The Past
DexCom's stock fell -33.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 49.9% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | DXCM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 495 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.9% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 146 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -47.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 91.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 364 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -34.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -35.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 514 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -45.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 854 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -39.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.1% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 456 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 565.5% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 418 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.6% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 47 days |
In The Past
DexCom's stock fell -33.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 49.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About DexCom (DXCM)
DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) is a medical device company focused on designing, developing, and commercializing continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems. These innovative systems are engineered to help individuals with diabetes manage their condition more effectively by continuously tracking glucose levels, aiming to reduce the reliance on traditional finger-stick blood glucose testing.
The company's primary product offerings include the DexCom G6, an integrated CGM system central to diabetes management, and Dexcom ONE, specifically designed to replace finger-stick blood glucose testing for treatment decisions. DexCom also provides the Dexcom Share system for remote monitoring and the Dexcom Real-Time API, which enables third-party developers to integrate live CGM data into their digital health applications. Its next-generation system, Dexcom G7, is currently a key product candidate.
DexCom primarily serves two main customer groups: people with diabetes who directly use their devices, and healthcare professionals such as endocrinologists, physicians, and diabetes educators who prescribe and manage these systems for patient care. The company markets and distributes its products directly across the United States and internationally, providing essential real-time glucose data for improved diabetes management.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for DexCom (DXCM):
Fitbit for blood sugar: Like how Fitbit continuously tracks activity and heart rate, DexCom continuously monitors glucose levels for people with diabetes.
Apple for diabetes management devices: DexCom provides sleek, user-friendly, and integrated continuous glucose monitoring systems that simplify a complex health condition, much like Apple simplifies technology.
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- DexCom G6: An integrated continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) system used for diabetes management.
- Dexcom Real-Time API: An interface that enables third-party developers to integrate real-time CGM data into their digital health applications.
- Dexcom ONE: A continuous glucose monitoring system designed to replace finger stick blood glucose testing for diabetes treatment decisions.
- Dexcom Share: A remote monitoring system that allows for sharing of continuous glucose monitoring data.
- Dexcom G7: A next-generation continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) system that is part of the company's product candidature.
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DexCom (symbol: DXCM) sells primarily to individuals, specifically people with diabetes, through prescriptions facilitated by healthcare providers. The company also states that its systems are "for use by healthcare providers." Based on the provided background information, the major categories of customers it serves are:
- Individuals with Type 1 Diabetes: These patients often require continuous and precise glucose monitoring for intensive insulin management.
- Individuals with Type 2 Diabetes: This includes patients who use insulin or require close glucose monitoring to manage their condition effectively.
- Healthcare Providers: This category encompasses endocrinologists, physicians, and diabetes educators. While not always the direct purchasers, these professionals are crucial customers for DexCom as they prescribe the devices to patients and are the direct recipients of the company's marketing efforts. DexCom also provides its systems for use by these providers, implying direct engagement and support for their clinical practice.
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Jacob Leach – President and Chief Executive Officer
Jacob "Jake" Leach is the President and Chief Executive Officer at Dexcom, a role he assumed effective January 1, 2026, succeeding Kevin R. Sayer. He joined Dexcom in 2004 and has over 20 years of experience in the continuous glucose monitoring industry. Prior to becoming CEO, he served as President and Chief Operating Officer, and before that, as Chief Technology Officer. Mr. Leach has been instrumental in supporting all major technology advancements at Dexcom, including the development of the first commercial Dexcom CGM system and all subsequent generations. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Electrical Engineering with a minor in Biomedical Engineering from the University of California, Los Angeles. He also serves on the Board of Directors at AdvaMed and is an Executive Committee member for the San Diego Economic Development Corporation.
Jereme Sylvain – Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Jereme Sylvain is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Dexcom, a position to which he was promoted in March 2021. In this role, he is responsible for Dexcom's finance organization and investor relations. Mr. Sylvain joined Dexcom in September 2018 as Vice President, Finance and Corporate Controller, and later served as Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Accounting Officer. Before joining Dexcom, he held various positions at NuVasive, Inc., including Chief Accounting Officer and Vice President, Corporate Controller. His career also includes leadership roles at Thermo Fisher Scientific and experience with the public accounting firm Ernst & Young LLP. Mr. Sylvain received a Bachelor of Science degree in Finance from Arizona State University and a Master of Science in Accountancy from the University of Notre Dame, and is a Certified Public Accountant.
Michael Brown – Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer
Michael Brown serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Legal Officer at Dexcom.
Jon Coleman – EVP, Chief Commercial Officer
Jon Coleman holds the position of Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer at Dexcom.
Matthew Dolan – Executive Vice President, Strategy & Corporate Development & Dexcom Labs
Matthew Dolan is the Executive Vice President, Strategy & Corporate Development & Dexcom Labs at Dexcom.
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Here are the key risks to DexCom's business:
- Regulatory Scrutiny and Product Quality/Reliability Issues: DexCom faces significant risks related to regulatory compliance and the quality and reliability of its continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems. The U.S. FDA issued a warning letter to DexCom for unauthorized changes to a key sensor coating without submitting a premarket notification, which could increase risks for patients relying on CGMs for insulin dosing. Furthermore, FDA inspectors observed several quality control and process issues at DexCom's San Diego facility. There have been multiple recalls of DexCom G6 and G7 receivers due to defective foam or assembly errors that could lead to speaker malfunctions, preventing audible alerts for critical high or low blood glucose levels and potentially causing serious patient harm. DexCom's G7 system has also faced patient concerns regarding poor accuracy, failed sensor insertions, and abrupt stoppages. The company is currently facing class-action lawsuits alleging that it marketed defective G7 monitors, made unauthorized design changes, and that the devices provided inaccurate readings and failed to deliver critical alerts, leading to patient health risks and potentially severe consequences, including hospitalizations and alleged deaths.
- Intensifying Competition: The continuous glucose monitoring market is experiencing increasing competition, posing a formidable threat to DexCom's market share and pricing power. Competitors like Abbott Laboratories, with its FreeStyle Libre solutions, are often cited as a significant rival, offering more competitively priced products and gaining market share. Medtronic is also a notable competitor. The integration of competitors' glucose-ketone dual analyte sensors and pump systems could further complicate DexCom's gains in the Type 1 diabetes segment.
- Supply Chain and Manufacturing Challenges: DexCom relies on third-party suppliers and outsourced manufacturing, making its operations vulnerable to supply disruptions, quality issues, and price fluctuations. Manufacturing difficulties or disruptions at its facilities could adversely affect product sales and increase expenses. The company has experienced recent gross margin shortfalls and tempered margin forecasts due to supply issues, tariffs, foreign exchange headwinds, and increased scrap rates stemming from quality initiatives, highlighting vulnerabilities in its production and supply chain management.
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Addressable Markets for DexCom's Main Products and Services
DexCom, Inc. primarily operates within the continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems market. The addressable markets for their main products, such as Dexcom G6, Dexcom G7, Dexcom ONE, and Dexcom Stelo, are encompassed by the broader CGM market.
Global Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) Market
The global continuous glucose monitoring market was valued at approximately USD 10.9 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it will reach between USD 47.1 billion by 2034 and USD 55.048 billion by 2035, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) ranging from 15.7% to 16% during the forecast periods.
U.S. Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) Market
The U.S. continuous glucose monitoring market was valued at approximately USD 4.9 billion in 2024. Projections indicate robust growth, with the market expected to reach USD 22 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 16.2% from 2025 to 2034. Another estimate places the U.S. market at USD 7.43 billion in 2026, growing to USD 17.16 billion by 2031 with an 18.23% CAGR.
Dexcom Stelo Addressable Market (U.S.)
Dexcom's Stelo sensor, an over-the-counter CGM, targets approximately 25 million Americans with Type 2 diabetes who do not use insulin.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for DexCom (DXCM)
Over the next 2-3 years, DexCom (DXCM) is expected to drive future revenue growth through several key initiatives and market expansions:
- Continued Adoption and Rollout of Dexcom G7: The successful launch and ongoing uptake of the Dexcom G7 and the newer G7 15 Day system are anticipated to be significant contributors to revenue growth. Management projects 2026 revenue growth, in part, due to the broad launch of the G7 15 Day system.
- Expansion into the Type 2 Non-Insulin Market with Stelo: DexCom plans to significantly expand its addressable market by targeting people with Type 2 diabetes who do not use insulin through its new product, Stelo. This product was submitted to the FDA in Q4 2023 and is expected to launch in the U.S. in summer 2024, aiming to diversify revenue beyond high-acuity patients.
- International Market Expansion and Increased Access: A consistent driver of growth is DexCom's strategy to broaden its global footprint. The company is actively expanding access and securing reimbursement in various international markets, including strong performance noted in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Canada.
- Growth in Customer Base and CGM Awareness: The overall increase in awareness of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) technology and the addition of new customers are fundamental drivers. DexCom has consistently demonstrated an ability to attract new users, reporting over 600,000 new DexCom users in 2023.
- Expanded Reimbursement and Pharmacy Channel Penetration: DexCom is focused on expanding coverage for its CGM systems globally, particularly for Type 2 non-insulin users. This includes efforts to secure additional access through Medicare and partnerships with Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) to shift CGM device access toward pharmacy benefits, thereby increasing patient access and adherence.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (2021-2025)
Share Repurchases
- DexCom announced a share repurchase program of up to $500 million on October 27, 2023, which was valid until October 31, 2024.
- On May 1, 2025, the company announced a new $750 million share repurchase program.
- Annual share repurchases amounted to $688.7 million in 2023, $750 million in 2024, and $500 million in 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- DexCom's capital expenditures for fiscal years ending December 2020 to 2024 averaged $309.7 million, with a median of $358.8 million.
- Capital expenditures were $389 million in 2021, $365 million in 2022, $237 million in 2023, $359 million in 2024, and approximately $364 million for 2025.
- Projected capital expenditures are set to increase, with $507 million anticipated for 2026, and further increases to $556 million in 2027 and $623 million in 2028. The primary focus of these expenditures includes investments in manufacturing, software, and organic growth, particularly to expand global manufacturing capacity.
Peer Outperformance in Health Care Equipment
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXCM | DexCom | 14.5% | 31.1x | 41.3% | -12.6% | -47.2% | — |
| PEN | Penumbra | 16.2% | 80.0x | 40.3% | 64.4% | 15.3% | +63pp |
| LIVN | LivaNova | 10.7% | 23.0x | 50.0% | 57.8% | 2.9% | +50pp |
| ATRC | AtriCure | 15.9% | 282.5x | 77.3% | 75.0% | -18.4% | +29pp |
| EW | Edwards Lifesciences | 13.1% | 52.8x | 11.6% | 44.1% | -23.2% | +24pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care Distributors | 6 | 10.9% | 56.8% | 98.5% | CAH 480% · MCK 390% · COR 186% |
| Health Care Services | 20 | 33.8% | 44.0% | 12.4% | HIMS 255% · RDNT 136% · DGX 89% |
| Managed Health Care | 8 | 34.4% | -1.2% | -3.6% | OSCR 76% · HQY 55% · ELV 4% |
| Health Care Facilities | 25 | 12.1% | 18.2% | -5.4% | THC 281% · NHC 236% · EHC 182% |
| Health Care Equipment ← | 50 | 0.7% | 10.2% | -17.8% | GKOS 420% · UFPT 360% · PLSE 148% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 61 | -15.0% | 9.2% | -34.9% | LQDA 1102% · KNSA 788% · LLY 482% |
| Health Care Supplies | 11 | 15.5% | 2.3% | -39.9% | LNTH 329% · HAE 74% · MMSI 28% |
| Life Sciences Tools & Services | 107 | -8.1% | -1.9% | -66.4% | NTRA 262% · AXGN 225% · MEDP 188% |
| Biotechnology | 363 | -25.0% | -26.2% | -81.1% | DNTH 1187% · ELVN 1129% · TRVI 1054% |
| Health Care Technology | 21 | -23.8% | -48.9% | -82.4% | VEEV -1% · DOCS -53% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 89.53 |
| Mkt Cap | 20.7 |
| Rev LTM | 4,079 |
| Op Inc LTM | 870 |
| FCF LTM | 999 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 744 |
| CFO LTM | 1,360 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,045 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 17.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 17.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 19.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 20.7 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.8 |
| P/EBIT | 17.9 |
| P/E | 25.7 |
| P/CFO | 14.7 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 22.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 8.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 14.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 2.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -79.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 4,662 | 4,033 | 3,622 | 2,910 | 2,448 |
| Total | 4,662 | 4,033 | 3,622 | 2,910 | 2,448 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 912 | 600 | 598 | 391 |
| Total | 912 | 600 | 598 | 391 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 836 | 576 | 542 | 341 |
| Total | 836 | 576 | 542 | 341 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $82.29 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 30.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/14/2005 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -10.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $85.82 | $74.56 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -4.1% | 10.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 30.6% | 40.3% |
| Downside Capture | 62.15 | 71.55 |
| Upside Capture | 17.47 | 78.53 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 8.8% | 20.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.24 | -0.10 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 0.59 | 0.81 |
| Up Beta | -3.42 | -0.31 | 0.44 | 0.03 | 0.36 | 0.84 |
| Down Beta | 0.38 | 0.55 | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.78 |
| Up Capture | -79% | -61% | 7% | 41% | 68% | 35% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 18 | 32 | 65 | 127 | 383 |
| Down Capture | -2% | 20% | 18% | -38% | 70% | 96% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 25 | 32 | 61 | 124 | 363 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DXCM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXCM | 20.8% | 40.3% | 0.56 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 30.2% | 16.4% | 1.41 | 29.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.9% | 12.8% | 0.52 | 18.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.0% | 28.6% | -0.08 | 10.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.2% | 20.6% | 1.79 | -10.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.2% | 13.7% | 0.45 | 16.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.0% | 43.5% | -0.70 | 6.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DXCM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXCM | -10.2% | 47.4% | -0.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 8.7% | 15.3% | 0.37 | 36.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.2% | 17.1% | 0.53 | 39.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.2% | 19.0% | 0.68 | 5.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.2% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 5.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.9% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 30.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.9% | 51.6% | 0.28 | 18.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DXCM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXCM | 14.9% | 48.8% | 0.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 12.0% | 16.8% | 0.59 | 35.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 37.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.4% | 16.5% | 0.56 | 4.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 9.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 27.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.8% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 10.0% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/1/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | 3.0% | ||
| 7/30/2026 | 12.0% | 11.4% | 21.8% |
| 4/30/2026 | 3.0% | 2.3% | 25.7% |
| 2/12/2026 | 7.6% | 12.3% | 1.9% |
| 10/30/2025 | -14.6% | -14.9% | -5.5% |
| 7/30/2025 | -9.3% | -14.2% | -15.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | 16.2% | 21.5% | 21.7% |
| 2/13/2025 | 5.9% | 5.6% | -15.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 9.3% | 10.8% | 12.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -8.2% | -11.8% |
| Max Positive | 19.4% | 21.5% | 40.6% |
| Max Negative | -40.7% | -34.8% | -31.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | 3.0% | ||
| 7/30/2026 | 12.0% | 11.4% | 21.8% |
| 4/30/2026 | 3.0% | 2.3% | 25.7% |
| 2/12/2026 | 7.6% | 12.3% | 1.9% |
| 10/30/2025 | -14.6% | -14.9% | -5.5% |
| 7/30/2025 | -9.3% | -14.2% | -15.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | 16.2% | 21.5% | 21.7% |
| 2/13/2025 | 5.9% | 5.6% | -15.2% |
| 10/24/2024 | -1.9% | -5.8% | -2.7% |
| 7/25/2024 | -40.7% | -34.8% | -31.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | -9.9% | -8.2% | -7.7% |
| 2/8/2024 | -5.2% | -7.4% | 4.7% |
| 10/26/2023 | 10.1% | 15.5% | 40.6% |
| 7/27/2023 | 2.3% | -5.6% | -22.1% |
| 4/27/2023 | -1.8% | -5.0% | -6.9% |
| 2/9/2023 | 9.9% | 9.3% | 3.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | 19.4% | 11.2% | 11.2% |
| 7/28/2022 | -5.6% | 2.9% | -2.9% |
| 4/28/2022 | -1.1% | -8.2% | -30.0% |
| 2/10/2022 | -4.9% | -12.4% | -7.9% |
| 10/28/2021 | 9.3% | 10.4% | 0.1% |
| 7/29/2021 | 13.0% | 14.9% | 14.2% |
| 4/29/2021 | -8.4% | -15.3% | -12.4% |
| 2/11/2021 | 0.6% | 2.1% | -11.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 9.3% | 10.8% | 12.7% |
| Median Negative | -5.6% | -8.2% | -11.8% |
| Max Positive | 19.4% | 21.5% | 40.6% |
| Max Negative | -40.7% | -34.8% | -31.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/09/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/09/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/14/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/11/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/27/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/13/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/30/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 5.20 Bil | 5.22 Bil | 5.25 Bil | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 5.21 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 12.0% | 12.5% | 13.0% | ||||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Profit Margin | Reported | 64.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 64.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | Reported | 24.0% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 23.75% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | 32.0% | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 31.75% for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 5.18 Bil | 5.21 Bil | 5.25 Bil | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 5.21 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Profit Margin | Reported | 64.0% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 63.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | Reported | 23.5% | 23.75% | 24.0% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 23.25% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | 31.5% | 31.75% | 32.0% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 31.25% for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 5.16 Bil | 5.21 Bil | 5.25 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.21 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 11.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 12.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Profit Margin | Reported | 63.0% | 63.5% | 64.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 63.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | Reported | 23.0% | 23.25% | 23.5% | 0.8% | Raised | Guidance: 22.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | 31.0% | 31.25% | 31.5% | 0.8% | Raised | Guidance: 30.5% for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 5.16 Bil | 5.21 Bil | 5.25 Bil | 12.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.64 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 11.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% | -3.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 15.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Profit Margin | Reported | 63.0% | 63.5% | 64.0% | 2.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 61.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Margin | Reported | 22.0% | 22.5% | 23.0% | 2.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 20.5% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | 30.0% | 30.5% | 31.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 29.5% for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/28/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stern, Sadie | EVP Chief People & Culture Off | Direct | Sell | 10282026 | 78.62 | 2,565 | 201,660 | 9,506,180 | Form |
| 2 | Brown, Michael Jon | EVP Chief Legal Compliance Off | Direct | Sell | 10192026 | 85.48 | 1,700 | 145,316 | 8,392,854 | Form |
| 3 | Stern, Sadie | EVP Chief People & Culture Off | Direct | Sell | 9302026 | 86.15 | 2,565 | 220,975 | 10,637,630 | Form |
| 4 | Augustinos, Nicholas | by Trust | Sell | 9162026 | 84.04 | 6,539 | 549,538 | 2,461,784 | Form | |
| 5 | Brown, Michael Jon | EVP Chief Legal Compliance Off | Direct | Sell | 9162026 | 84.04 | 1,700 | 142,868 | 8,394,335 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stern, Sadie | EVP Chief People & Culture Off | Direct | Sell | 10282026 | 78.62 | 2,565 | 201,660 | 9,506,180 | Form |
| 2 | Brown, Michael Jon | EVP Chief Legal Compliance Off | Direct | Sell | 10192026 | 85.48 | 1,700 | 145,316 | 8,392,854 | Form |
| 3 | Stern, Sadie | EVP Chief People & Culture Off | Direct | Sell | 9302026 | 86.15 | 2,565 | 220,975 | 10,637,630 | Form |
| 4 | Augustinos, Nicholas | by Trust | Sell | 9162026 | 84.04 | 6,539 | 549,538 | 2,461,784 | Form | |
| 5 | Brown, Michael Jon | EVP Chief Legal Compliance Off | Direct | Sell | 9162026 | 84.04 | 1,700 | 142,868 | 8,394,335 | Form |
| 6 | Augustinos, Nicholas | by Trust | Sell | 9162026 | 84.02 | 1,550 | 130,231 | 3,010,605 | Form | |
| 7 | Sylvain, Jereme M | EVP, Chief Financal Officer | Direct | Sell | 9142026 | 83.27 | 3,638 | 302,936 | 12,226,368 | Form |
| 8 | Stern, Sadie | EVP Chief People & Culture Off | Direct | Sell | 8282026 | 88.37 | 2,565 | 226,669 | 11,138,420 | Form |
| 9 | Sayer, Kevin R | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 90.01 | 26,756 | 2,408,242 | 27,201,543 | Form |
| 10 | Brown, Michael Jon | EVP Chief Legal Compliance Off | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 91.93 | 1,700 | 156,281 | 9,464,469 | Form |
| 11 | Heller, Bridgette P | Direct | Sell | 8132026 | 88.29 | 1,012 | 89,349 | 2,610,735 | Form | |
| 12 | Foletta, Mark G | by Trust | Sell | 8042026 | 85.32 | 2,000 | 170,640 | 4,168,053 | Form | |
| 13 | Foletta, Mark G | by Trust | Sell | 8042026 | 80.00 | 2,000 | 160,000 | 4,068,160 | Form | |
| 14 | Sayer, Kevin R | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7212026 | 76.32 | 26,756 | 2,041,999 | 25,106,760 | Form |
| 15 | Brown, Michael Jon | EVP Chief Legal Compliance Off | Direct | Sell | 7162026 | 74.42 | 1,700 | 126,514 | 7,788,276 | Form |
| 16 | Sayer, Kevin R | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7072026 | 72.00 | 26,756 | 1,926,432 | 25,612,272 | Form |
| 17 | Brown, Michael Jon | EVP Chief Legal Compliance Off | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 75.55 | 1,700 | 128,435 | 8,034,969 | Form |
| 18 | Foletta, Mark G | by Trust | Sell | 6172026 | 74.13 | 4,000 | 296,540 | 3,918,178 | Form | |
| 19 | Coleman, Jon | EVP, Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 74.13 | 4,911 | 364,052 | 7,075,708 | Form |
| 20 | Coleman, Jon | EVP, Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6052026 | 73.00 | 4,912 | 358,576 | 7,326,353 | Form |
| 21 | Sayer, Kevin R | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 72.00 | 26,759 | 1,926,648 | 27,538,704 | Form |
| 22 | Brown, Michael Jon | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 59.91 | 1,700 | 101,847 | 6,560,385 | Form |
| 23 | Heller, Bridgette P | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 60.01 | 1,012 | 60,730 | 1,500,670 | Form | |
| 24 | Brown, Michael Jon | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 63.04 | 1,700 | 107,168 | 7,010,300 | Form |
| 25 | Brown, Michael Jon | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 3182026 | 64.85 | 1,700 | 110,245 | 7,321,824 | Form |
| 26 | Heller, Bridgette P | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 68.01 | 1,012 | 68,826 | 1,769,552 | Form | |
| 27 | Collins, Richard Alexander | by Trust | Sell | 11182025 | 59.05 | 2,906 | 171,599 | 2,071,946 | Form | |
| 28 | Heller, Bridgette P | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 58.07 | 1,012 | 58,767 | 1,569,690 | Form | |
| 29 | Leach, Jacob Steven | President & COO | Direct | Buy | 11102025 | 55.04 | 18,200 | 1,001,702 | 18,256,127 | Form |
| 30 | Collins, Richard Alexander | by Trust | Sell | 11102025 | 55.17 | 3,948 | 217,811 | 2,096,129 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 1, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tri Locum Partners LP | $43.8 Mil | 6.2% | 17 | ADD +65.6% | 13F |
| Steelhead Partners LLC | $76.6 Mil | 5.5% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Defilade Capital Management, L.P. | $33.8 Mil | 4.8% | 31 | ADD +120.0% | 13F |
| Opti Capital Management, LP | $63.8 Mil | 4.6% | 36 | ADD +18.8% | 13F |
| MayTech Global Investments, LLC | $18.8 Mil | 2.3% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| 2Xideas AG | $5.7 Mil | 2.2% | 47 | Hold | 13F |
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $120.8 Mil | 2.1% | 44 | TRIM -18.3% | 13F |
| Ithaka Group LLC | $6.6 Mil | 1.4% | 38 | Hold | 13F |
| Avidity Partners Management LP | $5.7 Mil | 1.1% | 45 | New | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $50.4 Mil | 1.0% | 44 | TRIM -64.4% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet Inc. | $68.8 Mil | 2.7% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| MIG Capital, LLC | $40.2 Mil | 6.8% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Casdin Capital, LLC | $11.6 Mil | 0.7% | 38 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $50.4 Mil | 1.0% | 44 | TRIM -64.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $120.8 Mil | 2.1% | 44 | TRIM -18.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $120.8 Mil | 2.1% | 44 | TRIM -18.3% | 13F |
| Steelhead Partners LLC | $76.6 Mil | 5.5% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Opti Capital Management, LP | $63.8 Mil | 4.6% | 36 | ADD +18.8% | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $50.4 Mil | 1.0% | 44 | TRIM -64.4% | 13F |
| Tri Locum Partners LP | $43.8 Mil | 6.2% | 17 | ADD +65.6% | 13F |
| Defilade Capital Management, L.P. | $33.8 Mil | 4.8% | 31 | ADD +120.0% | 13F |
| MayTech Global Investments, LLC | $18.8 Mil | 2.3% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Ithaka Group LLC | $6.6 Mil | 1.4% | 38 | Hold | 13F |
| Avidity Partners Management LP | $5.7 Mil | 1.1% | 45 | New | 13F |
| 2Xideas AG | $5.7 Mil | 2.2% | 47 | Hold | 13F |
DXCM Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive, centered on a major, near-term catalyst. DexCom's underlying patient growth remains near record levels and margins are expanding, demonstrating strong operational health. The investment case hinges on a positive Medicare coverage decision for a new patient population, expected by year-end 2026, which could significantly re-accelerate growth. A negative outcome on that decision would break the thesis.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Recurring Consumption (Razor & Blade)(Number of Active Patients) x (Sensor Utilization Rate) x (Net Price Per Sensor) Gross margin expansion driven by manufacturing efficiencies, higher production volumes, and favorable product mix towards more cost-effective products like the G7 15 Day.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests DexCom is positioned to expand its addressable market, offsetting slowing growth in its established business.
- Management expects a CMS coverage decision for Type 2 non-insulin patients this year.
- Active patient base growth is currently in the 'upper teens'.
- Global new patient starts were at 'near record levels' in the most recent quarter.
- The company raised its full-year 2026 operating margin guidance to approximately 24%.
- Category penetration is only about 30% into currently covered lives.
PRIMARY RISK
Slowing revenue growth and a guaranteed future reduction in Medicare pricing could challenge the company's valuation, especially if market expansion fails to materialize.
- Quarterly revenue growth has slowed from 15% to 11.2% over the last three quarters.
- Guidance implies a further slowdown to 10% growth in the fourth quarter.
- Medicare's competitive bidding is 'expected to result in reduced' CGM payments starting in 2028.
- Inventory grew 27.6% year-over-year, far outpacing 11.2% revenue growth.
- Competitors like Abbott and Medtronic are larger, with Abbott being 9.1 times larger by revenue.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Active Patient Base Growth | In the 'upper teens' as of Q3 2026. - Stable | While the year-over-year growth rate of the total patient base shows slight moderation as the base expands, the underlying driver of new patient starts remains robust and near all-time highs, signaling continued market penetration. |
| Quarterly Revenue Growth (YoY) | 11.2% year-over-year for the quarter ended 9/30/2026. - Decelerating | The clear trend is a deceleration in year-over-year growth, reflecting a maturing market. The modest sequential growth is positive but does not offset the broader YoY slowdown. |
| Global New Patient Starts | Near record levels (Q3 2026) | Market rewards Management has indicated that achieving a 'record year of new patient starts' corresponds to the upper end of their revenue guidance.. Indicates the pace of new customer acquisition and market penetration, a primary driver of future recurring revenue from sensor sales. |
| Active Base Growth | Upper teens (Q3 2026) | Represents the net growth of the total user population, combining new patient additions with customer retention. This is a direct indicator of the volume of recurring sensor consumption. |
New Patient Catalyst vs. Core Market Maturation
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on near-record new patient starts and the upcoming CMS decision, which could unlock a 25 million-person market and re-accelerate growth well above the current 11.2% rate.
CORE TENSION
Can the catalyst of a new market, pending a CMS decision expected this year, overcome the drag from decelerating 11.2% growth in the core business?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The market rewarded strong patient additions and a margin guidance raise, looking past the headline revenue slowdown toward the pending catalyst.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see a clear trend of decelerating revenue and a future of mandated price cuts from Medicare's 2028 competitive bidding, arguing the growth story is structurally impaired.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
by the end of 2026 | Legacy Product Phase-Out Watch: The company plans to phase out its G6 and Dexcom ONE CGM systems. |
11/9/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Senseonics Holdings (SENS) is scheduled to report earnings. |
this year | CMS Coverage Decision Watch: A CMS coverage decision for Type 2 non-insulin patients is expected. |
by year-end | Product Base Conversion Watch: The company plans to convert nearly 50% of its U.S. customer base to the G7 15 Day system. |
launching early next year | New Patient Service Watch: The company plans to launch a new service for patients called Dexcom Direct. |
1/20/2027 | Intensifying Competitive Disclosures Watch: CGM-specific revenue growth, market share commentary, and pricing environment color from Abbott and Medtronic earnings reports and calls. |
2/10/2027 | Confirmed Revenue Growth Deceleration Watch: Q4 revenue results versus the implied 10% growth, and the initial full-year 2027 revenue growth guidance provided. |
2/10/2027 | Company Earnings Report Watch: The company is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
2/15/2027 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Medtronic (MDT) is scheduled to report earnings. |
in early 2027 | Japan Product Launch Watch: The Dexcom G7 15 Day system is positioned for a launch in Japan. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-29 | Q3 Earnings Beat and Guidance Raise Details: The company reported Q3 revenue growth of 11.2% and raised its full-year 2026 guidance for Revenue, Non-GAAP Operating Margin, and Adjusted EBITDA Margin. | +4.7% $78.62 -> $82.29 |
2026-10-14 | CONNECT Study Published Details: Results from the landmark CONNECT trial were published in The New England Journal of Medicine, providing rigorous evidence of CGM benefits for adults with Type 2 diabetes not on insulin. | +3.1% $85.06 -> $87.71 |
2026-09-14 | COO Leadership Promotion Details: The company promoted Jereme Sylvain to Chief Operating Officer, in addition to his responsibilities as Chief Financial Officer, to bring key functions closer to financial and strategic priorities. | +4.1% $83.03 -> $86.45 |
2026-07-30 | Strong Q2 Earnings Reaction Details: The company reported Q2 results including 13.1% revenue growth. The stock had a strong two-day reaction of 11.0% versus 2.0% for the S&P 500 around the earnings call. | +11.1% $75.14 -> $83.45 |
2026-07-13 | G7 15 Day Canadian Authorization Details: Health Canada authorized the Dexcom G7 15 Day Continuous Glucose Monitoring System for people 18 years and older living with diabetes. | -1.1% $74.96 -> $74.12 |
2026-06-06 | Positive CONNECT Study Results Details: The company announced results from its CONNECT trial, demonstrating that Dexcom G7 leads to significant A1C reduction for people with Type 2 diabetes not using insulin. | +5.6% $72.59 -> $76.62 |
2026-05-26 | Product Theft Incident Disclosed Details: The company announced it had uncovered the theft of scrapped product, specifically certain lots of Dexcom G7 sensors that were intended for destruction but were instead sold by third parties. | -2.6% $72.10 -> $70.26 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: DXCM trades at roughly 32% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (3.1x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
ABT - Abbott Laboratories
Diversified Scale LeaderAbbott offers exposure to the CGM market through a much larger, more diversified healthcare business, with revenue 9.1 times that of DexCom. This provides greater stability and resources.
MDT - Medtronic
Integrated System PlayerMedtronic competes with its own CGM systems but is also a leader in insulin pumps, offering a more integrated 'closed-loop' system for diabetes management. Its diabetes business recently grew 15%.
Dexcom is a medical device company with a recurring revenue model, where growth hinges on securing broader insurance coverage to convert its CGM technology from a niche tool into the standard of care for an expanding population of people with diabetes.
Dexcom's growth thesis is centered on expanding the addressable market for its CGM systems. This is being pursued through product innovation like the G7 15 Day to improve user experience, and crucially, by using strong clinical data from studies like CONNECT to persuade payors, especially CMS, to grant reimbursement for the large Type 2 non-insulin patient population. International expansion and new products like Stelo for metabolic health represent additional growth vectors.
A positive CMS coverage decision for Type 2 non-insulin users; continued strong adoption and positive feedback for the G7 15 Day system; and successful international launches and share gains.
A negative or delayed CMS coverage decision; significant pricing pressure from payors or through Medicare's competitive bidding process; or manufacturing issues that hinder supply or product quality.
Short-term stock price volatility; minor product announcements from smaller competitors; lawsuits from shareholder firms.
Repricing Catalyst
The expected CMS coverage decision for the Type 2 non-insulin population, which management anticipates will be announced before the end of 2026.
Single Segment
$5.1B TTM (100% of Total) · 24% MarginWhat It Is
The company sells continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems, including the G7, G6, G7 15 Day, Dexcom ONE+, and the Stelo biosensor, to people with diabetes, their caregivers, and clinicians worldwide.
Who Pays & How
Most customers rely on third-party payors, such as government programs (Medicare, Medicaid) and private health insurance plans, to cover the cost. These payors reimburse for the products because clinical evidence demonstrates that CGM improves health outcomes, such as lowering A1C and reducing hyper- and hypoglycemia, compared to traditional finger stick monitoring.
Competition
DexCom — Investor Video Playlist
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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