D.R. Horton (DHI)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $140.5 | Market Cap: $41.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding
D.R. Horton (DHI)
Market Price (3/15/2026): $140.5Market Cap: $41.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Homebuilding
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 8.5% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -15% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 3.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.5 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 8.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 3.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include IoT for Buildings, Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -15% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is 0.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.5% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. D.R. Horton experienced significant year-over-year declines in its fiscal first-quarter 2026 financial results, despite surpassing analyst estimates. While the company reported an EPS of $2.03 and revenue of $6.89 billion, beating consensus estimates, net income attributable to D.R. Horton decreased by 30% and diluted earnings per share fell by 22% compared to the prior year. Additionally, consolidated revenues declined 9% to $6.9 billion, and home sales revenues decreased 9% on 7% fewer homes closed (17,818 homes) year-over-year.
2. The broader housing market faced a cooling trend and affordability constraints due to elevated mortgage rates. Although the Federal Reserve implemented three rate cuts in late 2025, bringing the federal funds rate down to 3.50% to 3.75%, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained in the low to mid-6% range and even saw a slight increase to 6.11% on March 12, 2026. This sustained pressure on affordability contributed to a national housing market where annual home price growth slowed to 0.7% in January 2026, a significant drop from 3.5% at the start of 2025.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.4% change in DHI stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 158.56 | 140.49 | -11.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 34,250 | 33,524 | -2.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.5% | 9.9% | -5.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.1 | 12.3 | -5.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 296 | 292 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.4% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DHI | -11.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 13.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -6.2% | 39.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.6% change in DHI stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 168.48 | 140.49 | -16.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 34,575 | 33,524 | -3.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.5% | 9.9% | -13.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.9 | 12.3 | -4.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 304 | 292 | 4.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.6% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DHI | -16.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 17.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.2% | 39.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.1% change in DHI stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 42.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 125.33 | 140.49 | 12.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 36,688 | 33,524 | -8.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.7% | 9.9% | -21.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.7 | 12.3 | 42.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 322 | 292 | 10.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DHI | 12.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 25.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 3.4% | 39.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 56.5% change in DHI stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/14/2026 was primarily driven by a 126.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3142026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 89.79 | 140.49 | 56.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 33,684 | 33,524 | -0.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.8% | 9.9% | -40.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 5.4 | 12.3 | 126.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 344 | 292 | 17.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 56.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/14/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DHI | 56.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 30.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 56.0% | 39.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DHI Return | 59% | -17% | 72% | -7% | 4% | -1% | 118% |
| Peers Return | 47% | -24% | 91% | 9% | -6% | -1% | 117% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DHI Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 72% | 42% | 63% | 60% | 43% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DHI Max Drawdown | -4% | -44% | 0% | -11% | -17% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -4% | -41% | -0% | -5% | -22% | -4% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LEN, PHM, NVR, TOL, KBH. See DHI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DHI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 315 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 288 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 611.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,460 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to LEN, PHM, NVR, TOL, KBH
In The Past
D.R. Horton's stock fell -44.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/10/2021. A -44.8% loss requires a 81.1% gain to breakeven.
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About D.R. Horton (DHI)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for D.R. Horton:
- D.R. Horton is like Ford, but for houses. They mass-produce new homes across the country, offering different brands for various market segments.
- You can think of D.R. Horton as the Walmart of new home sales. They are the largest homebuilder in the U.S., constructing and selling a vast volume of homes in countless markets.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Residential Home Sales and Construction: The company constructs and sells a variety of new homes, including single-family detached, town homes, duplexes, and triplexes.
- Mortgage Financing Services: D.R. Horton provides mortgage financing solutions to homebuyers.
- Title Services: The company offers title insurance policies along with examination and closing services.
- Residential Lot Development: D.R. Horton engages in the acquisition and development of land for residential purposes.
- Rental Property Services: The company develops, constructs, owns, leases, and sells both multi-family and single-family rental properties.
AI Analysis | Feedback
D.R. Horton (DHI) primarily serves individual homebuyers.
The company caters to a diverse range of customers, which can be broadly categorized into the following segments:
- First-time homebuyers: These customers are typically entering the housing market for the first time, often seeking more affordable and entry-level homes, a segment often addressed by D.R. Horton's "Express Homes" brand.
- Move-up homebuyers: This category includes individuals or families looking for larger homes, more amenities, or homes in different locations, often having previously owned a home. D.R. Horton's core brand and "Emerald Homes" often serve this segment.
- Active adult/Retiree homebuyers: Customers in this segment often seek homes designed for a low-maintenance lifestyle, sometimes in age-restricted or age-targeted communities, a market specifically addressed by D.R. Horton's "Freedom Homes" brand.
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Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to DHI.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | MBLY | Mobileye Global | Dip Buy | DB | Cash/EquityDip Buyer with High Net Cash % EquityBuying dips for companies with significant net cash as a % of market cap along with meaningful cash flow generation | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | SAH | Sonic Automotive | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.9% | -5.9% | -6.1% |
| 02132026 | MAT | Mattel | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | SONO | Sonos | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.7% | -0.7% | -4.6% |
| 02062026 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.6% | 1.6% | -0.8% |
| 12312018 | DHI | D.R. Horton | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 26.8% | 54.3% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 127.94 |
| Mkt Cap | 20.7 |
| Rev LTM | 14,283 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,235 |
| FCF LTM | 1,275 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,555 |
| CFO LTM | 1,331 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,624 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | -6.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 20.7 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 8.3 |
| P/E | 11.0 |
| P/CFO | 11.8 |
| Total Yield | 10.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -16.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -19.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 0.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 54.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -13.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -24.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -14.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Homebuilding | 27,481 | 24,700 | 22,285 | 18,932 | 15,221 |
| Rental | 3,123 | 2,860 | 2,697 | 865 | |
| Financial Services | 2,957 | 2,980 | 3,006 | 2,235 | 1,726 |
| Forestar | 2,840 | 2,471 | 2,343 | 2,102 | 1,740 |
| Eliminations and Other | -297 | -429 | 20 | -118 | |
| Eliminations and Other Adjustments | -155 | ||||
| Other | 379 | ||||
| Total | 36,104 | 32,582 | 30,351 | 24,016 | 18,912 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $140.49 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 41.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/05/1992 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -23.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $154.08 | $150.36 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -8.8% | -6.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 34.4% | 38.7% |
| Downside Capture | 33.00 | 69.38 |
| Upside Capture | -28.57 | 68.77 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 10.0% | 26.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.89 | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.43 | 0.49 | 0.68 |
| Up Beta | -1.21 | 0.03 | 0.20 | 1.30 | 0.62 | 0.80 |
| Down Beta | 0.45 | 0.70 | 0.36 | 0.30 | 0.14 | 0.28 |
| Up Capture | -77% | 23% | 22% | 13% | 59% | 61% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 22 | 28 | 56 | 125 | 387 |
| Down Capture | -176% | -69% | 18% | 38% | 64% | 93% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 19 | 33 | 68 | 126 | 364 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DHI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHI | 10.5% | 38.7% | 0.34 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.0% | 23.7% | 0.46 | 41.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 26.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | 3.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | -1.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 48.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.3% | 44.2% | -0.25 | 16.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DHI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHI | 12.9% | 35.4% | 0.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 8.0% | 23.7% | 0.30 | 51.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 47.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 10.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 4.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 54.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.3% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 18.6% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DHI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DHI | 18.7% | 35.5% | 0.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.4% | 21.9% | 0.52 | 55.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 52.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 11.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 15.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 55.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 13.3% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/20/2026 | 3.2% | -3.0% | 7.2% |
| 10/28/2025 | -3.2% | -8.7% | -2.4% |
| 7/22/2025 | 17.0% | 11.4% | 28.4% |
| 4/17/2025 | 3.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% |
| 1/21/2025 | 2.2% | 0.2% | -10.2% |
| 10/29/2024 | -7.2% | -5.3% | -6.2% |
| 7/18/2024 | 0.2% | -0.4% | 2.8% |
| 4/18/2024 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 3.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 17 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 3.7% | 7.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -2.3% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 17.0% | 11.4% | 29.1% |
| Max Negative | -7.2% | -8.7% | -10.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 01/22/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/19/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/18/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/22/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/27/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buchanan, Michael R | Direct | Sell | 9092025 | 180.74 | 1,000 | 180,740 | 215,623 | Form | |
| 2 | Odom, Aron M | SVP, Controller and PAO | Direct | Sell | 9092025 | 183.00 | 1,376 | 251,808 | 1,181,631 | Form |
| 3 | Auld, David V | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 9092025 | 182.21 | 30,000 | 5,466,411 | 148,626,613 | Form |
| 4 | Odom, Aron M | SVP, Controller and PAO | Direct | Sell | 8142025 | 166.20 | 1,233 | 204,925 | 1,301,845 | Form |
| 5 | Buchanan, Michael R | Direct | Sell | 6242025 | 127.70 | 2,150 | 274,552 | 280,043 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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