Tearsheet

Circle Internet (CRCL)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $87.3 | Market Cap: $9.4 Mil
Sector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Capital Markets

Circle Internet (CRCL)


Market Price (12/5/2025): $87.3
Market Cap: $9.4 Mil
Sector: Financials
Industry: Diversified Capital Markets

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -4682%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -126 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.2%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1065%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -1727%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19676%
3 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 1980%
 
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more.
 
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -4682%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1065%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
3 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 1980%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, Crypto & Blockchain, and Digital & Alternative Assets. Themes include Digital Payments, Show more.
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -126 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -6.2%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -1727%
7 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19676%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CRCL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Circle Internet Group (CRCL) experienced a stock decline of approximately 33.7% between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025, primarily due to several key factors. 1. Deteriorating Revenue Outlook Due to Falling Interest Rates: A significant portion of Circle's income, specifically over 95%, is generated from interest earned on its USDC reserves. Investor concerns grew regarding the sustainability of this revenue stream as the Federal Reserve initiated interest rate cuts in 2025, with further cuts anticipated. This declining interest rate environment negatively impacted the sentiment around Circle's profitability. 2. August 2025 Public Offering: On August 14, 2025, Circle announced the pricing of a public offering of 10,000,000 shares of its Class A common stock at $130.00 per share, with the offering expected to close on August 18, 2025. This offering included 8,000,000 shares sold by existing stockholders, totaling $1.04 billion, which would have significantly increased the supply of shares in the market and potentially created downward pressure on the stock price.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CRCL Return------ 
Peers Return-1%0%0%0%0%-19%-19%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CRCL Win Rate-----50% 
Peers Win Rate2%0%0%0%0%22% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CRCL Max Drawdown------ 
Peers Max Drawdown-1%0%0%0%0%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ABTC, DMNT, FIGR, GEMI, MIAX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

CRCL has limited trading history. Below is the Financials sector ETF (XLF) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLFS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven525 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-43.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven295 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven338 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-83.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven515.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven4470 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/12/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Circle Internet (CRCL)

Better Bets than Circle Internet (CRCL)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CRCL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WU_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025WUWestern UnionDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%-0.4%
COIN_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025COINCoinbase GlobalMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
15.2%15.2%0.0%
PYPL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025PYPLPayPalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.5%-2.5%-7.5%
V_11142025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11142025VVisaMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.1%-0.1%-2.7%
WD_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025WDWalker & DunlopDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.2%-6.2%-11.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Circle Internet

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CRCLABTCDMNTFIGRGEMIMIAXMedian
NameCircle I.American.Dmint Figure T.Gemini S.Miami In. 
Mkt Price87.462.42-39.0211.8645.4639.02
Mkt Cap0.0-----0.0
Rev LTM2,032-0--1,2551,255
Op Inc LTM-126--5--58-5
FCF LTM386----7196
FCF 3Y Avg77----1546
CFO LTM429----49239
CFO 3Y Avg99----4873

Growth & Margins

CRCLABTCDMNTFIGRGEMIMIAXMedian
NameCircle I.American.Dmint Figure T.Gemini S.Miami In. 
Rev Chg LTM1,064.6%--6.0%--19.6%19.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-----16.7%16.7%
Rev Chg Q599.3%--37.1%--22.9%22.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM38.4%--7.1%--5.1%5.1%
Op Mgn LTM-6.2%--1,065.4%--4.7%-6.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-49.3%----1.3%-24.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-18.1%-124.4%--2.9%2.9%
CFO/Rev LTM21.1%----3.9%12.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-49.9%----4.1%-22.9%
FCF/Rev LTM19.0%----0.5%9.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-59.3%----1.1%-29.1%

Valuation

CRCLABTCDMNTFIGRGEMIMIAXMedian
NameCircle I.American.Dmint Figure T.Gemini S.Miami In. 
Mkt Cap0.0-----0.0
P/S0.0-----0.0
P/EBIT-0.1------0.1
P/E-0.1------0.1
P/CFO0.0-----0.0
Total Yield-1,722.6%------1,722.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%-----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-------
D/E10.6-----10.6
Net D/E-46.8------46.8

Returns

CRCLABTCDMNTFIGRGEMIMIAXMedian
NameCircle I.American.Dmint Figure T.Gemini S.Miami In. 
1M Rtn-21.4%-47.8%-2.0%-27.2%2.5%-21.4%
3M Rtn-25.6%-62.2%--92.6%-28.1%-43.9%
6M Rtn5.1%---92.6%---43.8%
12M Rtn----92.6%---92.6%
3Y Rtn----92.6%---92.6%
1M Excs Rtn-22.6%-49.1%-0.7%-28.5%1.3%-22.6%
3M Excs Rtn-29.5%-73.1%--98.4%-24.3%-51.3%
6M Excs Rtn-10.4%---108.1%---59.2%
12M Excs Rtn----106.0%---106.0%
3Y Excs Rtn----165.9%---165.9%

Financials

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity21,154,808
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120258.1%
Average Daily Volume19,270,010
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.10
Basic Shares Quantity107,514
Short % of Basic Shares19676.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025812202510-Q 6/30/2025
123120246052025424B4 12/31/2024
33120227112022S-4/A 3/31/2022
1231202111142022S-4/A 12/31/2021
630202110042021S-4/A 6/30/2021
1231202012232021S-4/A 12/31/2020