ConocoPhillips (COP)
Market Price (4/16/2026): $118.88 | Market Cap: $146.5 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
ConocoPhillips (COP)
Market Price (4/16/2026): $118.88Market Cap: $146.5 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.2% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 20 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.2 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 16 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, US Oilfield Technologies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -47% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.9% Key risksCOP key risks include [1] integration challenges from the acquisition of Marathon Oil. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.2%, Dividend Yield is 2.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 20 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.2 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 16 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include US LNG, US Oilfield Technologies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -47% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.9% |
| Key risksCOP key risks include [1] integration challenges from the acquisition of Marathon Oil. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
ConocoPhillips (COP) stock has gained about 30% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. A significant surge in crude oil and natural gas prices, driven by geopolitical events, created a highly favorable operating environment for ConocoPhillips. Oil prices increased dramatically in the first quarter of 2026, with Brent crude rising from approximately $61 per barrel at the start of the year to $118 per barrel by the end of the quarter, including a 43% surge in March. This increase was largely due to military action in the Middle East in late February and the subsequent disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. As a major upstream oil and gas producer, ConocoPhillips directly benefits from higher commodity prices; every $1 increase in Brent's price is estimated to boost its annual cash flow by $65 million to $75 million. The broader energy sector, particularly pure oil and gas producers, saw an average gain of 45.0% in Q1, reflecting this macro tailwind.
2. ConocoPhillips demonstrated a strong commitment to disciplined capital allocation and aggressive cost reductions, enhancing future free cash flow. The company announced plans to achieve a $1 billion reduction in capital and operating costs in 2026. This strategic focus includes full-year capital expenditures guided to approximately $12 billion and adjusted operating costs of $10.2 billion for 2026. This operational streamlining and efficiency drive are expected to generate an additional $1 billion in free cash flow in 2026, independent of commodity price fluctuations, which resonated positively with investors.
Show more
1. A significant surge in crude oil and natural gas prices, driven by geopolitical events, created a highly favorable operating environment for ConocoPhillips. Oil prices increased dramatically in the first quarter of 2026, with Brent crude rising from approximately $61 per barrel at the start of the year to $118 per barrel by the end of the quarter, including a 43% surge in March. This increase was largely due to military action in the Middle East in late February and the subsequent disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. As a major upstream oil and gas producer, ConocoPhillips directly benefits from higher commodity prices; every $1 increase in Brent's price is estimated to boost its annual cash flow by $65 million to $75 million. The broader energy sector, particularly pure oil and gas producers, saw an average gain of 45.0% in Q1, reflecting this macro tailwind.
2. ConocoPhillips demonstrated a strong commitment to disciplined capital allocation and aggressive cost reductions, enhancing future free cash flow. The company announced plans to achieve a $1 billion reduction in capital and operating costs in 2026. This strategic focus includes full-year capital expenditures guided to approximately $12 billion and adjusted operating costs of $10.2 billion for 2026. This operational streamlining and efficiency drive are expected to generate an additional $1 billion in free cash flow in 2026, independent of commodity price fluctuations, which resonated positively with investors.
Show more
Holding a concentrated position? Know your true downside before the momentum shifts.
Protect Your Wealth →
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 28.0% change in COP stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 40.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 92.89 | 118.92 | 28.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 59,788 | 58,944 | -1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.8% | 13.6% | -8.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.1 | 18.3 | 40.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,245 | 1,232 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 28.0% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COP | 28.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | -4.8% |
| Sector (XLE) | 24.7% | 87.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 27.9% change in COP stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 44.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 93.00 | 118.92 | 27.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 57,798 | 58,944 | 2.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.9% | 13.6% | -14.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.7 | 18.3 | 44.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,258 | 1,232 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 27.9% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COP | 27.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 7.5% |
| Sector (XLE) | 25.9% | 87.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.1% change in COP stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 38.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 101.54 | 118.92 | 17.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 54,745 | 58,944 | 7.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.9% | 13.6% | -19.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.3 | 18.3 | 38.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,208 | 1,232 | -2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COP | 17.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 51.1% |
| Sector (XLE) | 22.4% | 92.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 32.0% change in COP stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/15/2026 was primarily driven by a 207.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4152026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 90.08 | 118.92 | 32.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 78,494 | 58,944 | -24.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 23.8% | 13.6% | -43.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.0 | 18.3 | 207.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,239 | 1,232 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 32.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/15/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| COP | 32.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 36.2% |
| Sector (XLE) | 47.5% | 89.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| COP Return | 87% | 74% | 2% | -12% | -2% | 28% | 265% |
| Peers Return | 91% | 75% | -10% | -5% | 3% | 27% | 276% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 2% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| COP Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 58% | 33% | 58% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 73% | 62% | 47% | 48% | 63% | 75% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| COP Max Drawdown | -1% | 0% | -20% | -16% | -16% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -0% | 0% | -17% | -14% | -14% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: XOM, CVX, OXY, EOG, DVN. See COP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/15/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | COP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -65.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 193.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 558 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -36.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 868 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,690 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to XOM, CVX, OXY, EOG, DVN
In The Past
ConocoPhillips's stock fell -33.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -33.5% loss requires a 50.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About ConocoPhillips (COP)
ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids worldwide. It primarily engages in the conventional and tight oil reservoirs, shale gas, heavy oil, LNG, oil sands, and other production operations. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; various LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of conventional and unconventional exploration prospects. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- The Rio Tinto of crude oil and natural gas.
- Like BHP Billiton, but focused solely on extracting oil and natural gas.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Crude Oil: A naturally occurring flammable liquid consisting of hydrocarbons, primarily used as a fuel and for the production of petrochemicals.
- Bitumen: A thick, sticky, black mixture of hydrocarbons, often a byproduct of petroleum distillation or found in natural deposits like oil sands.
- Natural Gas: A fossil fuel composed primarily of methane, used as a significant energy source for heating, electricity generation, and industrial processes.
- Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): Natural gas that has been cooled to a liquid state, making it easier to transport and store.
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): Hydrocarbons, such as ethane, propane, butane, and pentane, that are separated from natural gas and used as fuels or petrochemical feedstocks.
AI Analysis | Feedback
ConocoPhillips (COP) primarily sells its products to other companies rather than individual consumers. Due to the nature of its business as a global explorer and producer of crude oil, natural gas, and related products, ConocoPhillips sells commodities that are traded on global markets or via numerous contracts with a wide array of industrial and energy sector buyers. As such, specific "major customer companies" are generally not publicly disclosed due to competitive and commercial confidentiality.
However, the following categories represent the primary types of companies that purchase ConocoPhillips's products:
- Refineries and Petrochemical Companies: These companies purchase crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) as feedstocks for processing into refined products like gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and various petrochemicals. Examples of companies in this category include integrated oil majors (e.g., ExxonMobil, Shell) and independent refiners (e.g., Valero, Marathon Petroleum).
- Natural Gas and LNG Buyers (Utilities, Power Generators, Industrial Users): These customers purchase natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) for a variety of purposes. This includes natural gas distribution utilities, power generation companies that use natural gas as fuel for electricity production, and various industrial users that consume natural gas as fuel or feedstock in their manufacturing processes.
- Commodity Traders and Other Energy Companies: Large trading houses and other energy companies often purchase crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs for further distribution, blending, or resale on the global commodity markets.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Ryan M. Lance, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Ryan M. Lance has served as chairman and chief executive officer of ConocoPhillips since May 2012. He is a petroleum engineer with over four decades of experience in the oil and natural gas industry. His career includes senior management and technical positions with ConocoPhillips, Phillips Petroleum, and various divisions of ARCO. His executive assignments at ConocoPhillips have included responsibility for international exploration and production, regional oversight for Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and North America, and leadership in technology, major projects, downstream strategy, integration, and specialty functions. He began his career with ARCO Alaska in 1984.
Andy O'Brien, Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President, Strategy & Commercial
Andy O'Brien will become Chief Financial Officer of ConocoPhillips, effective June 1, 2025. He will also retain responsibility for Strategy, Commercial and Sustainability. O'Brien has over 25 years of experience in the oil and gas industry, having started his career with predecessor company Conoco in 1997 as a financial analyst. He has held various leadership roles in finance, planning, global operations, treasury, corporate planning and development, and investor relations across the U.K., Canada, Alaska, Indonesia, and Houston. He previously served as Senior Vice President, Strategy, Commercial, Sustainability and Technology.
Timothy A. Leach, Director
Timothy A. Leach is a director at ConocoPhillips and brings over 40 years of experience in the oil and natural gas industry. Prior to joining ConocoPhillips, he served as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Concho Resources Inc. from its formation in February 2006 until its acquisition by ConocoPhillips in January 2021. During his tenure at Concho, he also served as president from 2009 to 2017. Earlier in his career, Mr. Leach led other Permian Basin-focused energy companies, including privately-held predecessors to Concho, and held executive roles at Parker & Parsley.
Nicholas Olds, Executive Vice President, Lower 48
Nicholas Olds serves as Executive Vice President, Lower 48, at ConocoPhillips.
Kelly Rose, Senior Vice President, Legal, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Kelly Rose holds the position of Senior Vice President, Legal, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary at ConocoPhillips.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to ConocoPhillips (COP) are:- Commodity Price Volatility: As an independent exploration and production (E&P) company, ConocoPhillips' revenues, operating results, and future growth are highly dependent on the prices received for crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. These prices can fluctuate significantly due to global supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and economic conditions, directly impacting profitability and cash flow.
- Environmental and Regulatory Risks (including Climate Policy): The oil and gas industry faces increasing scrutiny and stricter environmental regulations due to concerns over climate change and environmental degradation. ConocoPhillips is exposed to risks such as potential carbon taxes, fees, emissions trading schemes, and greenhouse gas reduction mandates that could significantly increase product costs and reduce demand for its products. Failure to adapt or comply with these evolving regulations can lead to substantial financial penalties and reputational damage.
- Operational Risks and Capital Intensity: ConocoPhillips' business involves complex and often hazardous operations, including exploration, production, and transportation of hydrocarbons. This inherently carries operational risks such as accidents, equipment failures, and natural disasters, which can lead to disruptions, environmental damage, and significant financial losses. Furthermore, the industry is capital-intensive, requiring substantial investments in exploration, production, and infrastructure, with risks of project inflation and an inability to find or replace commercial quantities of hydrocarbons.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The accelerating global energy transition, driven by the rapid adoption of electric vehicles and the increasing deployment of renewable energy sources for power generation, poses a clear emerging threat. This systemic shift aims to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, directly impacting long-term demand for crude oil, natural gas, and related products that constitute ConocoPhillips' core business.
AI Analysis | Feedback
ConocoPhillips (COP) operates within significant addressable markets for its main products and services, including crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (NGLs).
Crude Oil
- The global crude oil market size was estimated at 101.40 million barrels per day (MB/d) in 2025. This is projected to reach approximately 110.90 MB/d by 2035, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.90% from 2026 to 2035.
- In monetary terms, the global crude oil market size is estimated to grow from $3,050.95 billion in 2025 to $3,188.67 billion in 2026, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.5%.
- Global oil demand is expected to be 103.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 and is projected to reach 104.5 mb/d in 2026.
- Global oil supply is anticipated to increase to 106.1 mb/d in 2025 and is expected to rise to 108.5 mb/d in 2026.
Bitumen
- The global bitumen market was valued at USD 73.35 billion in 2024. It is projected to grow from USD 75.60 billion in 2025 to USD 98.62 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 3.9% during the forecast period. Other estimates place the global bitumen market at approximately USD 60.02 billion in 2026 and USD 112.01 billion by 2026.
- In terms of volume, the global bitumen market is expected to grow from 133.95 million tons in 2025 to 140.9 million tons in 2026.
- North America's bitumen market size was approximately USD 34.48 million in 2025. The United States alone consumes over 28 million tons of bitumen annually.
Natural Gas
- The global natural gas market was valued at $1,478.66 billion in 2025 and is projected to increase to $1,591.93 billion in 2026, growing at a CAGR of 7.7%.
- Global natural gas consumption reached 2,902 billion cubic meters (bcm) for the initial ten months of 2025. Global natural gas production for the same period was 3,506 bcm.
- U.S. marketed natural gas production achieved a record 118.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2025. Natural gas demand in North America is forecast to remain broadly flat in 2026.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
- The global LNG market size is projected to grow from USD 117.8 billion in 2025 to USD 228.83 billion by 2032. Another source indicates the global LNG market size was valued at USD 171.69 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 227.28 billion by 2032.
- Global LNG production capacity is estimated at 553.16 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) in 2026, up from 511 MTPA in 2025.
- Global LNG demand is forecast to rise to about 441 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2026. The global supply of LNG is expected to rise to 475 million tonnes in 2026.
- The United States was the largest global LNG exporter in 2025, selling 111 million metric tonnes. North America is expected to drive the vast majority of the 40 bcm increase in global LNG supply in 2026. The U.S. market share in the global LNG market is projected to increase from around 25% in 2025 to approximately 33% by the end of the decade.
Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)
- The global natural gas liquids (NGLs) market size was estimated at USD 16.3 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 17.2 billion in 2026. Other estimates for the global NGL market size include USD 26.98 billion in 2026 and USD 15.92 billion in 2025, growing to USD 24.24 billion by 2033.
- The U.S. NGL processing industry revenue reached $99.5 billion in 2025. North America held the largest volume share of the natural gas liquids market in 2025, at 37.10%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for ConocoPhillips (COP) over the next 2-3 years:
- Expansion of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Operations: ConocoPhillips is actively expanding its global LNG portfolio, which is expected to be a significant driver of future revenue. This includes long-term sales and purchase agreements for LNG from projects such as Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 (expected to start up in 2027) and Phase 2 in Texas, as well as the Rio Grande LNG project. The company aims to grow its controlled portfolio supply to between 10 and 15 million tonnes per annum (MTPA). The North Field East (NFE) project in Qatar is also expected to begin contributing to revenue in 2026.
- Increased Production Volumes from Key Projects: Growth in hydrocarbon production, particularly from its advantaged Lower 48 assets and the Willow project in Alaska, is anticipated to contribute to revenue. ConocoPhillips reported 2.5% underlying production growth in 2025 and has provided 2026 production guidance of 2.33 to 2.36 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOED). The Willow development in Alaska is specifically highlighted as a key project that will support future production growth.
- Cost Reductions and Capital Efficiency Improvements: While not a direct revenue driver, the company's focus on driving significant reductions in capital expenditures and operating costs will enhance profitability and free cash flow, which can then be reinvested for growth or returned to shareholders. ConocoPhillips targets a $1 billion reduction in capital and costs in 2026, contributing to an expected $7 billion in incremental free cash flow by 2029, including $1 billion annually from 2026 through 2028. This improved capital efficiency positions the company to maintain resilience across commodity cycles.
- Synergies from the Marathon Oil Acquisition: The integration of Marathon Oil Corporation is expected to deliver substantial cost synergies, with a target of $2 billion by 2026. These synergies, coupled with drilling and completion efficiency gains in the Lower 48, will contribute to a more efficient operating model and support improved financial performance, indirectly bolstering net revenue and profitability.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- ConocoPhillips increased its current share redemption package to up to $20 billion in November 2024.
- The company repurchased $5.46 billion in common stock in 2024 and $5.40 billion in 2023.
- In 2025, ConocoPhillips distributed $5.0 billion through share repurchases.
Outbound Investments
- ConocoPhillips acquired Marathon Oil for $22.5 billion in 2024.
- The company is on track to meet a $5 billion disposition target by year-end 2026, having executed over $3.0 billion in dispositions in 2025.
- A significant disposition included the sale of Anadarko Basin assets for $1.3 billion in October 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $12.12 billion in 2024 and $11.25 billion in 2023.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2025 are between $12.3 billion and $12.6 billion, with preliminary guidance for 2026 at approximately $12 billion.
- Primary focus areas for capital expenditures include projects such as the Willow Project in Alaska, with an updated capital guidance of $8.5 billion to $9.0 billion, and various LNG developments.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to COP.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | KGS | Kodiak Gas Services | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | KOS | Kosmos Energy | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12262025 | TPL | Texas Pacific Land | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 65.2% | 65.2% | -2.1% |
| 12122025 | NOV | NOV | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -6.5% |
| 12122025 | RIG | Transocean | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 60.5% | 60.5% | -7.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 53.2% | 53.2% | -2.3% |
| 02292020 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.1% | 12.0% | -53.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 125.15 |
| Mkt Cap | 108.5 |
| Rev LTM | 40,763 |
| Op Inc LTM | 9,296 |
| FCF LTM | 5,674 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 6,643 |
| CFO LTM | 15,164 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 15,694 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -5.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 38.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 108.5 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | 12.0 |
| P/E | 20.1 |
| P/CFO | 7.2 |
| Total Yield | 7.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 35.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 46.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 19.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 22.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 28.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 15.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -48.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $118.92 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 146.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/31/1981 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -11.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $118.64 | $98.57 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 0.2% | 20.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 29.4% | 28.6% |
| Downside Capture | -0.29 | -0.03 |
| Upside Capture | 46.14 | 40.10 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -7.5% | 16.1% |
COP Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.78 | -0.32 | -0.10 | 0.17 | 0.94 | 0.68 |
| Up Beta | -3.70 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.30 | 0.98 | 0.79 |
| Down Beta | -0.63 | 0.24 | 0.75 | 0.82 | 1.58 | 1.09 |
| Up Capture | 51% | 29% | 40% | 30% | 41% | 16% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 27 | 39 | 69 | 134 | 384 |
| Down Capture | -146% | -164% | -182% | -78% | 33% | 60% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 15 | 24 | 57 | 118 | 367 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with COP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COP | 42.6% | 28.5% | 1.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 45.2% | 19.8% | 1.76 | 89.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.0% | 12.9% | 1.36 | 16.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 49.0% | 27.5% | 1.44 | -1.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.0% | 16.1% | 1.38 | 55.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 17.3% | 13.7% | 0.92 | 13.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -10.4% | 42.6% | -0.14 | 14.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with COP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COP | 23.1% | 32.8% | 0.69 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 22.4% | 26.1% | 0.77 | 91.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.9% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 37.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.9% | 17.8% | 1.01 | 11.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.5% | 18.8% | 0.50 | 61.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.0% | 18.8% | 0.12 | 24.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.1% | 56.5% | 0.31 | 11.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with COP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COP | 15.0% | 37.7% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 10.5% | 29.5% | 0.39 | 90.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 51.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.3% | 15.9% | 0.75 | 4.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 17.6% | 0.41 | 60.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 38.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 12.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/5/2026 | -2.4% | 4.2% | 9.7% |
| 11/6/2025 | -2.3% | 1.6% | 6.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.5% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| 5/8/2025 | 1.3% | 5.5% | 0.3% |
| 2/6/2025 | -0.3% | -1.8% | -8.8% |
| 10/31/2024 | 6.4% | 10.3% | 5.9% |
| 8/1/2024 | -2.5% | -3.8% | 3.6% |
| 5/2/2024 | -1.7% | -1.0% | -5.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 14 | 17 |
| # Negative | 15 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 1.4% | 4.4% | 6.9% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -2.9% | -5.6% |
| Max Positive | 6.4% | 14.9% | 48.6% |
| Max Negative | -5.8% | -5.9% | -8.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Production | 2.30 Mil | 2.32 Mil | 2.34 Mil | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 12.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 12.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Costs | 10.20 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 10.20 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Production | 2.33 Mil | 2.35 Mil | 2.36 Mil | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization | 11.70 Bil | 11.80 Bil | 11.90 Bil | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Adjusted Corporate and Other Segment Net Loss | 900.00 Mil | Higher New | |||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Production | 2.30 Mil | 2.32 Mil | 2.34 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 12.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Costs | 10.20 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Underlying Production Growth | 0.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | ||||
| 2026 Incremental Free Cash Flow | 1.00 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lance, Ryan Michael | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 92.50 | 500,708 | 46,315,490 | 30,152,410 | Form |
| 2 | McRaven, William H | Direct | Buy | 11102025 | 86.68 | 5,768 | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form | |
| 3 | Johnson, Kirk L | Executive Vice President | Direct | Buy | 6172025 | 94.24 | 5,300 | 499,472 | 1,369,024 | Form |
| 4 | Leach, Timothy A | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 118.79 | 40,000 | 4,751,684 | 48,848,618 | Form | |
| 5 | Olds, Nicholas G | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 116.36 | 12,150 | 1,413,835 | 3,131,499 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.