Caterpillar (CAT)
Market Price (12/25/2025): $583.68 | Market Cap: $273.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Caterpillar (CAT)
Market Price (12/25/2025): $583.68Market Cap: $273.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.6 Bil | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% | Key risksCAT key risks include [1] a high vulnerability to cyclical downturns and shifts in U.S. Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Sustainable Infrastructure, Hydrogen Economy, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.6 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Sustainable Infrastructure, Hydrogen Economy, Show more. |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5% |
| Key risksCAT key risks include [1] a high vulnerability to cyclical downturns and shifts in U.S. Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
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Following a period from August 31, 2025, to December 25, 2025, Caterpillar (CAT) stock demonstrated significant positive movement, with shares rising over 41% year-to-date in 2025. This robust performance outpaced major benchmarks and was driven by several key factors: **1. Strong Demand for Data Center Power Solutions.** Caterpillar's Energy & Transportation segment saw significant growth, fueled by the increasing global demand for backup power systems for hyperscale data centers, a direct result of the AI revolution. In August 2025, Caterpillar notably signed an agreement to provide four gigawatts of energy for an upcoming data center.**2. Record Order Backlog and Upgraded Sales Outlook.** By the second quarter of 2025, Caterpillar reported a record order backlog of $37.5 billion, indicating strong future revenue visibility and robust demand across its key segments. This led management to upgrade its full-year 2025 sales outlook, expecting sales to be slightly higher than in 2024.
**3. Strategic Pivot Towards Technology-Centric Solutions.** Caterpillar's agreement to acquire RPMGlobal, an Australian mining software firm, for approximately $728 million, confirmed in October 2025, highlighted the company's strategic shift towards becoming a more technology-focused industrial powerhouse. This move aims to build a more durable and profitable foundation for future growth.
**4. Resilient and Growing Services Business.** The company's services division continued to be a stable source of recurring revenues and resilient profits, helping to smooth out demand fluctuations in its cyclical business. Caterpillar is targeting $28 billion in service revenues by 2026, building on $24 billion generated in 2024.
**5. Strong Investor Confidence and Market Outperformance.** Overall, Caterpillar's stock displayed remarkable momentum throughout 2025, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. This performance reflects strong investor confidence in the company's strategic initiatives, diversified business model, and ability to capitalize on secular growth trends like infrastructure development and the energy transition. Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 24.6% change in CAT stock from 9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 26.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 9242025 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 468.44 | 583.76 | 24.62% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 63139.00 | 64671.00 | 2.43% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.95% | 14.34% | -4.07% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.32 | 29.50 | 26.52% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 469.70 | 468.60 | 0.23% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 24.62% |
Market Drivers
9/24/2025 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAT | 24.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.4% | 47.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 3.4% | 56.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 58.1% change in CAT stock from 6/25/2025 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 67.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 6252025 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 369.16 | 583.76 | 58.13% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 63259.00 | 64671.00 | 2.23% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.71% | 14.34% | -8.74% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.64 | 29.50 | 67.24% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 474.90 | 468.60 | 1.33% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 58.10% |
Market Drivers
6/25/2025 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAT | 58.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.0% | 49.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.0% | 59.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 61.2% change in CAT stock from 12/24/2024 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 79.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12242024 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 362.10 | 583.76 | 61.21% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 65664.00 | 64671.00 | -1.51% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.26% | 14.34% | -11.82% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.42 | 29.50 | 79.64% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 484.20 | 468.60 | 3.22% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 61.05% |
Market Drivers
12/24/2024 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAT | 61.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.8% | 68.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 18.6% | 75.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 156.1% change in CAT stock from 12/25/2022 to 12/24/2025 was primarily driven by a 81.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 12252022 | 12242025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 227.91 | 583.76 | 156.14% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 56628.00 | 64671.00 | 14.20% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.02% | 14.34% | 10.16% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.23 | 29.50 | 81.73% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 525.00 | 468.60 | 10.74% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 153.18% |
Market Drivers
12/25/2023 to 12/24/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAT | 107.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 48.9% | 65.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 42.7% | 74.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CAT Return | 27% | 16% | 19% | 26% | 25% | 63% | 347% |
| Peers Return | 22% | 19% | 7% | 22% | 8% | 27% | 159% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 115% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CAT Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 67% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 62% | 43% | 48% | 53% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CAT Max Drawdown | -37% | -0% | -20% | -13% | -6% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -44% | -3% | -23% | -11% | -11% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DE, PCAR, CMI, TEX, OSK. See CAT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/24/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CAT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 101 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 170 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -34.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 748 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -74.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 292.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 639 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to DE, ALSN, TEX, ASTE, CAT
In The Past
Caterpillar's stock fell -33.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/17/2021. A -33.6% loss requires a 50.7% gain to breakeven.
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Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, and industrial gas turbines worldwide. Its Construction Industries segment offers asphalt pavers, backhoe loaders, compactors, cold planers, compact track and multi-terrain loaders, excavators, motorgraders, pipelayers, road reclaimers, site prep tractors, skid steer loaders, telehandlers, and utility vehicles; mini, small, medium, and large excavators; compact, small, and medium wheel loaders; track-type tractors and loaders; and wheel excavators. The Resource Industries segment provides electric rope shovels, draglines, hydraulic shovels, rotary drills, hard rock vehicles, track-type tractors, mining trucks, longwall miners, wheel loaders, off-highway trucks, articulated trucks, wheel tractor scrapers, wheel dozers, fleet management, landfill compactors, soil compactors, machinery components, autonomous ready vehicles and solutions, select work tools, and safety services and mining performance solutions. The Energy & Transportation segment offers reciprocating engines, generator sets, integrated systems and solutions, turbines and turbine-related services, remanufactured reciprocating engines and components, centrifugal gas compressors, diesel-electric locomotives and components, and other rail-related products and services for marine, oil and gas, industrial, and electric power generation sectors. The company's Financial Products segment provides operating and finance leases, installment sale contracts, working capital loans, and wholesale financing plans; and insurance and risk management products for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. The All Other operating segment manufactures filters and fluids, undercarriage, ground engaging tools, etc. The company was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. and changed its name to Caterpillar Inc. in 1986. The company was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Caterpillar:
- John Deere, but for massive construction and mining equipment.
- The General Electric of heavy construction and industrial machinery.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Construction & Mining Equipment: Manufactures a wide range of heavy machinery used in construction, mining, road building, and quarrying, including excavators, bulldozers, wheel loaders, and mining trucks.
- Engines & Power Systems: Produces diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and integrated power systems for applications in marine, oil and gas, electric power generation, and industrial sectors.
- Locomotives: Through its Electro-Motive Diesel (EMD) brand, it designs and manufactures diesel-electric locomotives and provides related services for the global rail industry.
- Financial Products & Services: Offers financing and leasing solutions for Caterpillar equipment, along with extended protection plans and insurance products for its customers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Caterpillar Inc. (symbol: CAT) primarily sells its heavy machinery, engines, and industrial equipment to other companies, rather than directly to individuals. Its major customers are typically large enterprises operating in sectors requiring extensive use of heavy equipment.
Here are categories of major customer companies and examples of publicly traded entities within those categories:
- Equipment Rental Companies: These companies purchase large fleets of Caterpillar machinery to rent out to construction, industrial, and general contracting businesses.
- United Rentals, Inc. (NYSE: URI)
- Ashtead Group plc (LSE: AHT) - Operates in the US as Sunbelt Rentals.
- Herc Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HRI)
- Mining Companies: Global mining giants acquire vast fleets of Caterpillar's large excavators, haul trucks, and other mining equipment for their operations.
- Rio Tinto plc (NYSE: RIO)
- BHP Group Limited (NYSE: BHP)
- Vale S.A. (NYSE: VALE)
- Railroad Companies: Through its Electro-Motive Diesel (EMD) subsidiary, Caterpillar supplies diesel-electric locomotives and components to major freight railroad operators.
- Union Pacific Corporation (NYSE: UNP)
- CSX Corporation (NASDAQ: CSX)
- BNSF Railway (a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., NYSE: BRK.A / BRK.B)
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D. James (Jim) Umpleby III Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors
Jim Umpleby joined Solar Turbines, a Caterpillar subsidiary, in 1980 as an associate engineer. He held various leadership roles across engineering, manufacturing, marketing, sales, and services within the company. In 2010, he became president of Solar Turbines and a Caterpillar vice president. From 2013 to 2016, he served as group president of Caterpillar's Energy & Transportation business segment. Umpleby was appointed CEO on January 1, 2017, and elected Chairman of the Board in 2018. He led the development and execution of a strategy focused on long-term profitable growth. He transitioned to Executive Chairman on May 1, 2025. Umpleby serves on the board of the Chevron Corporation.
Andrew Bonfield Chief Financial Officer
Andrew Bonfield joined Caterpillar as Chief Financial Officer in September 2018, bringing over three decades of financial experience. Before joining Caterpillar, he was the Group CFO and a board member of National Grid plc from 2010 to 2018. His prior roles include Chief Financial Officer at Cadbury plc, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at Bristol-Myers Squibb Company, Finance Director of BG Group plc, and CFO of Smithkline Beecham plc. Bonfield is a Chartered Accountant and holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the University of KwaZulu-Natal in Durban, South Africa. He also serves as a non-executive director and chairman of the audit committee at Reckitt Benckiser Group plc.
Joe Creed Group President, Energy & Transportation
Joe Creed joined Caterpillar in 1997 and has held various positions of increasing responsibility across multiple divisions, including Corporate Accounting, the Track-Type Tractors Division, and the Large Power Systems Division. In 2013, he was promoted to chief financial officer for Caterpillar's Energy & Transportation business segment. He also served as Vice President of the Finance Services Division in 2017 and was interim CFO prior to Andrew Bonfield's appointment. Creed is a certified public accountant.
Bob De Lange Group President, Digital, Technology & Distribution
Bob De Lange is a Group President with leadership responsibility for Digital, Technology & Distribution at Caterpillar Inc. His purview includes divisions such as Americas Distribution Services, Asia Pacific Distribution, Europe Africa Middle East Eurasia Distribution, Cat Digital, Cat Technology, and Product Support & Logistics.
Denise Johnson Group President, Resource Industries
Denise Johnson became Group President of Resource Industries in 2016. She joined Caterpillar in 2011 as the general manager of the Specialty Products business unit. Prior to Caterpillar, Johnson had a 22-year career at General Motors, where she developed expertise in operations and product management through various positions in the United States, Canada, and Brazil. She was elected vice president of the Diversified Products Division in 2012 and then vice president of the Integrated Manufacturing Operations Division in 2013.
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The key risks to Caterpillar's business are primarily linked to the cyclical nature of its markets, global trade dynamics, and the intensely competitive landscape.
- Cyclical Demand and Economic Downturns: Caterpillar is highly vulnerable to global economic slowdowns and recessions because its business is heavily reliant on cyclical industries such as construction and mining. A downturn in the global economy can lead to a significant reduction in demand for heavy machinery and equipment across all of Caterpillar's key segments, potentially resulting in declining orders, excess inventory, and production cuts. Shifts in U.S. infrastructure spending are also paramount, as North America accounts for a significant portion of the company's revenue.
- Trade Policy and Tariffs: Ongoing trade tensions and the potential for increased tariffs pose a significant threat to Caterpillar's profitability. Tariffs have been identified as a direct cost, creating a substantial financial headwind and compressing margins. For instance, the company adjusted its tariff guidance to an estimated impact of between $1.60 billion and $1.75 billion for the full 2025 fiscal year, representing a massive drag on profitability.
- Intense Competition: The heavy equipment industry is characterized by intense competition from numerous global and regional manufacturers, including companies like Komatsu, Volvo Construction Equipment, and Deere & Company. This competitive environment can lead to pricing pressure, lower profit margins, and challenges in maintaining market share if competitors offer similar or superior products at competitive prices.
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The rapid acceleration and adoption of electrification and alternative power sources (e.g., hydrogen) for heavy machinery and power systems. Competitors are aggressively developing and deploying electric and hydrogen-powered equipment, driven by increasing regulatory pressures for decarbonization and customer demand for lower emissions and quieter operations, particularly in urban construction and mining. If Caterpillar lags in its ability to offer competitive zero-emission solutions, it risks losing significant market share and falling behind competitors who are quicker to innovate and scale these new technologies.AI Analysis | Feedback
Caterpillar (CAT) operates in several key markets, for which addressable market sizes are available:
- Construction Equipment: The global construction equipment market was valued at approximately USD 195.8 billion in 2021, with projections indicating growth to USD 313.9 billion by 2031, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8% from 2022 to 2031. Other estimates place the global market at USD 149.78 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 194.78 billion by 2030 (CAGR of 3.8%), or USD 249.99 billion in 2025, potentially growing to USD 349.91 billion by 2034 (CAGR of 3.42% from 2026-2034). The Asia Pacific region accounts for the largest share of this market, holding over 43.8% in 2024.
- Mining Equipment: The global mining equipment market was estimated at USD 141.31 billion in 2023, with expectations to grow to USD 201.55 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 5.2% from 2024 to 2030. Another valuation for the global market was USD 83.7 billion in 2024, with a projected CAGR of 5.2% between 2025 and 2034. A further estimate values the market at USD 123.04 billion in 2025, forecast to reach USD 160.32 billion by 2030 (5.44% CAGR). The Asia-Pacific region significantly contributes to this market, accounting for 60.90% of revenue in 2024.
- Power Generation and Engines: This segment, part of Caterpillar's Energy & Transportation unit (which is transitioning to "Power & Energy"), includes power generators, turbines, and diesel engines. The global generator market is estimated to be USD 25.31 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 33.45 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 5.7%. The global diesel power engine market was estimated at USD 20.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 25.2 billion by 2029, at a CAGR of 4.5%. Additionally, the global power rental market, where Caterpillar is a key player, reached US$ 17.7 billion in 2021 and is expected to grow to US$ 26.9 billion by 2027, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.23%.
- Financial Products: Caterpillar provides financing and related services to support the sale of its equipment. While Caterpillar's Financial Products segment generated $4.05 billion in revenue in fiscal year 2024, a specific addressable market size for financial services directly tied to heavy equipment and power systems sales is not readily available as a distinct, separately measurable market in the provided search results.
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Caterpillar (CAT) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several strategic initiatives and market trends:- Expansion of Services and Aftermarket Sales: Caterpillar has made services growth a core strategic focus, aiming to increase its Machinery, Energy and Transportation (ME&T) services sales to $28 billion by 2026. This strategy leverages its extensive installed base of connected equipment and digital capabilities to offer aftermarket parts, maintenance agreements, and financing, ensuring a steady stream of recurring revenue.
- Increased Demand from Data Centers and AI Infrastructure: The booming construction of data centers and AI infrastructure is generating strong demand for Caterpillar's turbines and generators, particularly within its Energy & Transportation segment. This trend is viewed as a less cyclical driver of sales growth, with expectations for continued contributions through 2026 and 2027 as new capacity ramps up.
- Benefits from Infrastructure Spending: Significant infrastructure projects, notably those spurred by the U.S. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, are expected to bolster equipment demand. Strong global infrastructure demand, particularly in North America, Africa, and the Middle East, is poised to drive above-trend sales growth in late 2025 and into 2026.
- Investment in Advanced Technology, Automation, and Sustainable Solutions: Caterpillar is aggressively investing in advanced technology, including digital transformation, automation (such as autonomous mining fleets), and sustainable solutions across its product lines. The company aims to develop new products, technologies, and services that support climate-related objectives, improve equipment performance, and enhance operational efficiency, making machines smarter, safer, and more productive.
- Strong Order Backlog: The company reported a record order backlog of $39.8 billion, reflecting robust order rates and growth across all three primary segments: Construction Industries, Resource Industries, and Energy & Transportation. This substantial backlog provides a solid foundation for anticipated sales growth in the coming quarters and into 2025.
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Share Repurchases
- In June 2024, Caterpillar announced an additional $20 billion to its existing share repurchase program, bringing the total authorization to $21.8 billion with no expiry date.
- Caterpillar deployed $5.1 billion for share repurchases and dividends in Q1 2024.
- In Q3 2025, the company returned $1.1 billion to shareholders, including $400 million in share repurchases.
Share Issuance
- No information available.
Inbound Investments
- No information available.
Outbound Investments
- Caterpillar Ventures makes strategic, minority interest investments in early-stage start-ups (Series A and B), typically ranging from $0.5 million to $5.0 million.
- Caterpillar has made 41 investments across sectors such as Manufacturing Tech, Construction Tech, and Industrial Robotics.
- Recent investments include Equipmake (April 2025), MagnusMetal, and Redwood Materials, and the company has an agreement to acquire the Australian mining software provider RPMGlobal Holdings Limited.
Capital Expenditures
- Caterpillar's capital expenditures were $2.115 billion in 2020, $2.472 billion in 2021, $2.599 billion in 2022, $3.092 billion in 2023, and $3.215 billion in 2024. The latest twelve months capital expenditures (as of June 2025) reached $3.633 billion.
- The company announced a $725 million capital expansion at its large engine facility in Lafayette, Indiana, to significantly increase engine production.
- This expansion and other investments are focused on meeting growing power demands, particularly from AI, data centers, and critical infrastructure, and on enhancing manufacturing capacity.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to CAT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 17.7% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.4% | 4.4% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.3% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 6.3% | 6.3% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Caterpillar
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 298.94 |
| Mkt Cap | 65.0 |
| Rev LTM | 31,556 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,560 |
| FCF LTM | 2,736 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,299 |
| CFO LTM | 4,113 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,618 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 65.0 |
| P/S | 2.1 |
| P/EBIT | 15.3 |
| P/E | 24.1 |
| P/CFO | 14.7 |
| Total Yield | 5.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 31.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 71.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 8.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 15.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -7.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Products Segment | 35,685 | 34,269 | 34,860 | 34,278 | 35,813 |
| Liabilities included in segment assets | 11,781 | 12,519 | 10,777 | 8,466 | 8,541 |
| Energy & Transportation | 10,555 | 9,455 | 9,253 | 8,582 | 8,548 |
| Property, plant and equipment - net and other assets | 6,548 | 4,234 | 4,056 | 2,833 | 2,529 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 6,106 | 6,042 | 8,428 | 8,822 | 7,299 |
| Resource Industries | 5,742 | 5,775 | 5,962 | 6,035 | 6,505 |
| Construction Industries | 5,384 | 5,168 | 4,547 | 4,259 | 4,601 |
| Goodwill and intangible assets | 4,452 | 4,248 | 4,859 | 4,847 | 4,435 |
| Deferred income taxes | 2,668 | 2,098 | 1,735 | 1,413 | 1,294 |
| All Other Segment | 1,890 | 1,828 | 1,678 | 1,717 | 1,728 |
| Other | -166 | -630 | -706 | -392 | -414 |
| Inventory methodology differences | -3,169 | -3,063 | -2,656 | -2,536 | -2,426 |
| Total | 87,476 | 81,943 | 82,793 | 78,324 | 78,453 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $583.76 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 274.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1962 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -6.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $565.63 | $428.28 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 3.2% | 36.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.9% | 32.0% |
| Downside Capture | 148.25 | 117.77 |
| Upside Capture | 222.11 | 148.22 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 47.5% | 68.7% |
CAT Betas & Captures as of 11/30/2025
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.31 | 1.08 | 1.11 | 1.19 | 1.09 | 1.12 |
| Up Beta | 1.12 | -0.10 | 0.18 | 0.64 | 0.94 | 0.98 |
| Down Beta | 1.86 | 1.34 | 1.46 | 1.32 | 1.13 | 1.14 |
| Up Capture | 115% | 207% | 214% | 210% | 162% | 213% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 38 | 73 | 141 | 426 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 23 | 36 | 73 | 129 | 402 |
| Down Capture | 135% | 81% | 58% | 84% | 107% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 16 | 24 | 52 | 107 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 18 | 26 | 52 | 119 | 348 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Comparison of CAT With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAT | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 64.4% | 20.9% | 19.2% | 71.9% | 8.9% | 6.0% | -10.4% |
| Annualized Volatility | 31.8% | 18.8% | 19.5% | 19.3% | 15.3% | 17.1% | 35.0% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.58 | 0.87 | 0.78 | 2.69 | 0.36 | 0.18 | -0.12 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 75.6% | 68.7% | 1.9% | 24.8% | 42.1% | 29.9% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Comparison of CAT With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAT | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 29.0% | 14.0% | 14.9% | 18.7% | 11.7% | 4.8% | 32.6% |
| Annualized Volatility | 29.3% | 17.2% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 18.9% | 48.7% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.90 | 0.66 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 0.51 | 0.17 | 0.59 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 72.7% | 56.6% | 10.1% | 33.2% | 39.9% | 24.0% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Comparison of CAT With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAT | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 27.1% | 13.4% | 14.7% | 14.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 69.2% |
| Annualized Volatility | 30.4% | 19.9% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.8% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.85 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.83 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 0.90 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 76.3% | 64.3% | 1.4% | 38.1% | 43.8% | 15.8% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 11.6% | 4.4% | 9.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 0.1% | -5.8% | -4.3% |
| 4/30/2025 | 0.6% | 4.4% | 14.4% |
| 1/30/2025 | -4.6% | -8.7% | -12.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | -2.1% | -1.1% | 4.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | 3.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | -7.0% | -8.9% | -3.5% |
| 2/5/2024 | 2.0% | 0.7% | 5.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 15 | 12 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -4.2% | -4.3% |
| Max Positive | 11.6% | 8.9% | 19.7% |
| Max Negative | -7.0% | -8.9% | -12.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11032021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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