American International (AIG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $77.06 | Market Cap: $42.6 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Multi-line Insurance
American International (AIG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $77.06Market Cap: $42.6 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Multi-line Insurance
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.6%, FCF Yield is 6.5% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -39% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.2% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -64% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Digital & Alternative Assets, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.7%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.6%, FCF Yield is 6.5% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -64% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%, CFO LTM is 2.8 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include AI in Financial Services, Digital & Alternative Assets, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include AI for Fraud Detection, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -39% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.2% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AIG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The search results provide information about AIG in the latter half of 2025, including earnings reports, analyst ratings, and some price information. Critically, snippet mentions that "At around $77 per share, AIG has slipped back in recent weeks as the latest results refocused attention on earnings quality." and "[...] American International Group (AIG) beat expectations on adjusted Q3 2025 earnings, but the stock slipped as investors focused on weaker GAAP results, softer net premiums written, and investment and Corebridge related losses." The date of this article is December 4, 2025. Snippet also shows a price of $77.07 on December 3, 2025, and mentions "AIG Earnings: Positive Momentum Continues" from Nov 4, 2025. Snippet from November 26, 2025, indicates that "CoinCodex projects AIG stock will likely lose value in 2025, although there is a small chance that shares will slightly increase based on the highest price target." and mentions AIG has a "2025 YTD: 4%" return, but also shows a "Current Stock Overview" with a market cap of $41.97 billion, a trailing P/E of 13.62, and a 1-year return of 1%. Snippet from December 4, 2025, also states "AIG shows mixed signals with strong EPS growth forecast for 2025 (121.2%) but a modest 5% return on equity. The company offers a 2.2% dividend yield and substantial capital return plans, though profitability concerns remain." And further down: "American International Group (NYSE:AIG) represents a turnaround story with more cautious upside at $76.80. Despite analyst targets averaging $88.05, WarrenAI's fair value analysis indicates a potential 3.4% downside risk." This seems to indicate a recent downturn. Given the information, I can formulate some key points. I need to find specific events that could explain a -4.4% drop. The information suggests a "slip back in recent weeks" rather than a single event causing a -4.4% drop. The approximate time period is 8/31/2025 to today (12/5/2025). Let's look for specific dates and price changes or events between August 31, 2025, and December 5, 2025. Snippet shows a price of $77.07 on Dec 3, 2025. It also refers to Q3 2025 earnings reported on Nov 4, 2025, with a conference call on Nov 5, 2025. Snippet directly mentions: "American International Group (AIG) beat expectations on adjusted Q3 2025 earnings, but the stock slipped as investors focused on weaker GAAP results, softer net premiums written, and investment and Corebridge related losses." This is a strong candidate for explaining a stock dip. This article is dated December 4, 2025. To pinpoint the -4.4% movement, I need to find the stock price around August 31, 2025, and compare it to the price around December 5, 2025, and then attribute the movement to events. Snippet also mentions "Price vs Fair Value. View History. Price. $77.07. Dec 3, 2025. Fair Value. Aug 8, 2025." This does not give me the price on Aug 31, 2025. However, snippet directly talks about a slip: "At around $77 per share, AIG has slipped back in recent weeks as the latest results refocused attention on earnings quality." This implies a recent drop leading up to Dec 4, 2025. If AIG was at $77.07 on Dec 3, 2025, and it slipped by -4.4%, it would have been higher previously. For a 4.4% drop, if the current price is $77.07, then the previous price was roughly $77.07 / (1 - 0.044) = $77.07 / 0.956 = $80.62. Let's try to find an AIG price close to $80.62 around late August or early September 2025. The search results do not provide a clear stock price for AIG around August 31, 2025. However, they do provide reasons for a recent slip. I will focus on the reasons for the "slip back in recent weeks" (leading up to December 4, 2025) as potential explanations for the -4.4% movement. I will assume the -4.4% movement happened within the specified period. Key points based on search results for AIG's stock movement in late 2025: 1. **Mixed Q3 2025 Earnings:** American International Group (AIG) beat expectations on adjusted Q3 2025 earnings, but the stock experienced a slip as investors concentrated on weaker Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) results, softer net premiums written, and losses related to investments and Corebridge. 2. **Profitability Concerns:** Despite a strong EPS growth forecast for 2025 (121.2%), AIG showed a modest 5% return on equity and faced ongoing profitability concerns. 3. **Potential Downside Risk in Fair Value:** WarrenAI's fair value analysis indicated a potential 3.4% downside risk for AIG, with the stock trading at $76.80 compared to analyst targets averaging $88.05. 4. **Implied Volatility in Options Market:** The options market showed surging implied volatility for AIG, with the Jan 16, 2026 $25 Call having some of the highest implied volatility, suggesting that the market is expecting a significant move in the future, possibly a big rally or a huge sell-off. These points seem to cover the "slipping back" described in the articles.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AIG Return | -23% | 54% | 14% | 10% | 10% | 8% | 75% |
| Peers Return | -5% | 30% | 14% | 5% | 31% | 9% | 109% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AIG Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 67% | 58% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 58% | 60% | 62% | 65% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AIG Max Drawdown | -63% | -2% | -15% | -25% | -1% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -48% | -3% | -8% | -21% | -1% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TRV, ALL, MET, HIG, PRU. See AIG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AIG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 243 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -65.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 190.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 513 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -45.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1828 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -100.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 306440.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to TRV, ALL, MET, HIG, PRU
In The Past
American International's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/6/2023. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AIG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.5% | -2.5% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.2% | -6.2% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for American International
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 121.06 |
| Mkt Cap | 47.4 |
| Rev LTM | 53,168 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 7,250 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 6,318 |
| CFO LTM | 7,407 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,432 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 47.4 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 8.1 |
| P/E | 12.0 |
| P/CFO | 6.3 |
| Total Yield | 10.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 15.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 47.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -26.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America Commercial | 10,233 | ||||
| International Commercial | 7,964 | ||||
| Global Personal | 6,894 | ||||
| Net investment income | 3,446 | ||||
| Net results of businesses in run-off | 475 | ||||
| Other income | 6 | 49 | 46 | ||
| Net impact from elimination of international reporting lag | 3 | ||||
| Elimination and consolidations | -5 | ||||
| Net realized gains (losses) | -1,078 | -148 | 395 | ||
| General Insurance | 28,361 | 28,361 | 26,587 | 29,882 | |
| Life and Retirement | 19,574 | 19,594 | 17,275 | 16,356 | |
| Other Operations | 347 | 347 | 823 | 3,060 | |
| Changes in the fair value of equity securities | 200 | 158 | |||
| Changes in the fair values of equity securities and American International Group, Inc (AIG's) | 56 | 228 | |||
| Net investment income on Fortitude Re funds withheld assets | 1,053 | ||||
| Net realized gains (losses) on Fortitude Re funds withheld embedded derivative | -2,645 | ||||
| Net realized losses on Fortitude Re funds withheld assets | 463 | ||||
| Non-operating litigation reserves and settlements | 23 | 9 | |||
| American International Group Consolidation and elimination | -388 | ||||
| Total | 27,938 | 48,282 | 48,302 | 43,736 | 49,746 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
| Financials Resources |
| Federal Reserve Economic Data |
| Federal Reserve |
| FDIC Data |
| American Banker |
| The Banker |
| Banking Technology |
| Multi-line Insurance Resources |
| Insurance Business America |
| A.M. Best |
| National Underwriter |
| Insurance News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |