Tearsheet

Wayfair (W)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $95.81 | Market Cap: $12.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail

Wayfair (W)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $95.81
Market Cap: $12.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Broadline Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -58 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.5%
1   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 115%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%
3   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 176%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.0%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery.
1 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -58 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.5%
3 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 115%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 176%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.0%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

W Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Following are key points highlighting potential factors for Wayfair's stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to today:

1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat: Wayfair reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results, with non-GAAP earnings per share significantly beating analyst estimates and increasing by 218.2% year over year. Net revenues for the quarter also rose 8.1% year over year, exceeding consensus expectations.

2. Enhanced Profitability and Adjusted EBITDA Expansion: The company demonstrated substantial improvements in profitability, with Adjusted EBITDA surging 74.8% year over year in Q3 2025, reaching its highest margin (6.7%) outside of the pandemic period. This highlights strong operational efficiency and cost management.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
W Return150%-16%-83%88%-28%129%12%
Peers Return22%9%-11%34%21%-2%87%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
W Win Rate58%50%17%58%50%70% 
Peers Win Rate33%38%23%45%40%38% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
W Max Drawdown-74%-16%-85%-6%-39%-46% 
Peers Max Drawdown-15%-4%-18%-1%-4%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, NSIT, BBBY, BGO. See W Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventWS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-91.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1118.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-78.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven367.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven36 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-53.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven114.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven153 days120 days

Compare to AMZN, WMT, NSIT, BBBY, BGO


In The Past

Wayfair's stock fell -91.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/22/2021. A -91.8% loss requires a 1118.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Wayfair (W)

Better Bets than Wayfair (W)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to W. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Wayfair

Peers to compare with:

Financials

WAMZNWMTNSITBBBYBGOMedian
NameWayfair Amazon.c.Walmart Insight .Bed Bath.Bialgo C. 
Mkt Price95.20232.38114.4188.696.59-95.20
Mkt Cap12.42,471.8912.82.80.4-12.4
Rev LTM12,241670,038693,1538,2721,074-12,241
Op Inc LTM-5876,19028,988340-105-340
FCF LTM28613,48113,753333-95-333
FCF 3Y Avg8221,67714,986530-121-530
CFO LTM494121,13738,438365-72-494
CFO 3Y Avg36596,97736,707569-91-569

Growth & Margins

WAMZNWMTNSITBBBYBGOMedian
NameWayfair Amazon.c.Walmart Insight .Bed Bath.Bialgo C. 
Rev Chg LTM3.4%10.9%4.2%-6.7%-27.2%-3.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.3%11.3%5.7%-7.6%-20.0%--0.3%
Rev Chg Q8.1%13.3%4.8%-4.0%-17.4%-4.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.9%3.0%1.2%-1.0%-4.8%-1.2%
Op Mgn LTM-0.5%11.4%4.2%4.1%-9.8%-4.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-3.9%7.9%4.0%4.6%-9.3%-4.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.0%0.3%-0.1%0.0%2.4%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM4.0%18.1%5.5%4.4%-6.7%-4.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg3.0%15.8%5.5%6.3%-6.7%-5.5%
FCF/Rev LTM2.3%2.0%2.0%4.0%-8.9%-2.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.7%3.5%2.3%5.9%-8.9%-2.3%

Valuation

WAMZNWMTNSITBBBYBGOMedian
NameWayfair Amazon.c.Walmart Insight .Bed Bath.Bialgo C. 
Mkt Cap12.42,471.8912.82.80.4-12.4
P/S0.93.51.10.40.5-0.9
P/EBIT-53.027.425.112.6-3.5-12.6
P/E-35.733.136.525.0-4.1-25.0
P/CFO23.519.320.39.7-8.2-19.3
Total Yield-2.8%3.0%3.6%4.0%-24.5%-3.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.6%1.1%2.8%10.7%--2.0%
D/E0.30.10.10.50.0-0.1
Net D/E0.20.00.10.3-0.2-0.1

Returns

WAMZNWMTNSITBBBYBGOMedian
NameWayfair Amazon.c.Walmart Insight .Bed Bath.Bialgo C. 
1M Rtn-7.8%-8.5%12.6%-9.5%-13.6%--8.5%
3M Rtn20.0%2.8%15.1%-29.3%-22.9%-2.8%
6M Rtn114.9%12.1%15.4%-31.9%--13.8%
12M Rtn95.2%8.9%23.5%-44.6%--16.2%
3Y Rtn126.1%146.9%132.8%-13.3%--129.4%
1M Excs Rtn-7.8%-8.5%12.7%-9.4%-13.6%--8.5%
3M Excs Rtn9.6%-6.7%8.0%-35.2%-30.1%--6.7%
6M Excs Rtn100.2%-2.6%0.7%-46.6%---0.9%
12M Excs Rtn92.3%-1.8%11.3%-56.9%--4.8%
3Y Excs Rtn122.2%74.5%59.5%-85.9%--67.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment12,00312,21813,70814,1459,127
Total12,00312,21813,70814,1459,127


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity16,130,993
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-12.8%
Average Daily Volume3,699,965
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.36
Basic Shares Quantity130,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares12.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025804202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021