Wayfair (W)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $95.81 | Market Cap: $12.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
Wayfair (W)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $95.81Market Cap: $12.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -58 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.5% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 115% | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 176% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.0% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery. |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -58 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.5% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 115% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 176% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
W Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Following are key points highlighting potential factors for Wayfair's stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to today:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat: Wayfair reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results, with non-GAAP earnings per share significantly beating analyst estimates and increasing by 218.2% year over year. Net revenues for the quarter also rose 8.1% year over year, exceeding consensus expectations.
2. Enhanced Profitability and Adjusted EBITDA Expansion: The company demonstrated substantial improvements in profitability, with Adjusted EBITDA surging 74.8% year over year in Q3 2025, reaching its highest margin (6.7%) outside of the pandemic period. This highlights strong operational efficiency and cost management.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| W Return | 150% | -16% | -83% | 88% | -28% | 129% | 12% |
| Peers Return | 22% | 9% | -11% | 34% | 21% | -2% | 87% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| W Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 17% | 58% | 50% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 38% | 23% | 45% | 40% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| W Max Drawdown | -74% | -16% | -85% | -6% | -39% | -46% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -4% | -18% | -1% | -4% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, WMT, NSIT, BBBY, BGO. See W Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | W | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -91.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1118.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -78.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 367.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -53.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 120 days |
Compare to AMZN, WMT, NSIT, BBBY, BGO
In The Past
Wayfair's stock fell -91.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/22/2021. A -91.8% loss requires a 1118.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to W. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.1% | -4.1% | -4.1% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Wayfair
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 95.20 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.4 |
| Rev LTM | 12,241 |
| Op Inc LTM | 340 |
| FCF LTM | 333 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 530 |
| CFO LTM | 494 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 569 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 12.4 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 12.6 |
| P/E | 25.0 |
| P/CFO | 19.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 129.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 4.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 67.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |