Tearsheet

Wayfair (W)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $103.79 | Market Cap: $13.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail

Wayfair (W)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $103.79
Market Cap: $13.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Broadline Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -58 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.5%
1   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 109%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 103%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%
3   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 176%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.0%
5   Key risks
W key risks include [1] its ongoing inability to achieve sustained profitability due to significant marketing and fulfillment costs, Show more.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Last-Mile Delivery.
1 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -58 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.5%
3 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 109%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 103%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%
5 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 176%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.0%
7 Key risks
W key risks include [1] its ongoing inability to achieve sustained profitability due to significant marketing and fulfillment costs, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

W Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The public company Wayfair (W) experienced a significant stock movement, with several key factors contributing to investor sentiment and the stock's valuation. While the requested period of August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, falls outside of readily available historical data, an analysis of Wayfair's recent performance and strategic initiatives in late 2024 and early 2025 provides insights into potential drivers of such a change. Here are five key points that could explain a substantial stock movement for Wayfair: 1. Stronger-than-Expected Earnings and Improved Profitability: Wayfair's stock often reacts positively to earnings reports that surpass analyst expectations, particularly regarding profitability. For example, in Q1 2024, Wayfair reported a narrower-than-expected loss per share and revenue that exceeded analyst predictions, leading to a jump in shares. The company's adjusted EBITDA also significantly improved, indicating a positive trend in operational efficiency. Similarly, Wayfair's Q3 2025 adjusted EBITDA margin was notably high, suggesting durable earnings power. Continued progress in cost-cutting initiatives and a focus on growing Adjusted EBITDA have been highlighted as crucial for future performance.

2. Revenue Growth and Market Share Gains in a Challenging Environment: Despite a challenging broader home goods market, Wayfair has demonstrated an ability to gain market share. In Q1 2024, the company's revenue decline was minimal year-over-year, marking its sixth consecutive quarter of share gain, with active customer growth also turning positive and accelerating. More recently, Q3 2025 saw 8.1% revenue growth against a flat-to-down home goods market, indicating Wayfair's strong competitive execution. This ability to grow revenue and customers amidst industry headwinds can instill investor confidence.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
W Return150%-16%-83%88%-28%126%11%
Peers Return40%32%-25%24%29%0%120%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
W Win Rate58%50%17%58%50%67% 
Peers Win Rate58%62%38%62%67%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
W Max Drawdown-74%-16%-85%-6%-39%-46% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-7%-35%-10%-6%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMZN, HD, LOW, WMT, TGT. See W Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventWS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-91.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1118.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-78.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven367.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven36 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-53.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven114.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven153 days120 days

Compare to AMZN, WMT, NSIT, BBBY, BGO


In The Past

Wayfair's stock fell -91.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/22/2021. A -91.8% loss requires a 1118.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Wayfair (W)

Better Bets than Wayfair (W)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to W. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.0%13.0%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.4%6.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.0%13.0%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.4%6.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Wayfair

Peers to compare with:

Financials

WAMZNHDLOWWMTTGTMedian
NameWayfair Amazon.c.Home Dep.Lowe's C.Walmart Target  
Mkt Price102.47221.27356.75247.96115.6698.60168.47
Mkt Cap13.32,353.6354.3138.6821.840.7246.4
Rev LTM12,241670,038166,18984,256703,061105,242135,716
Op Inc LTM-5876,19021,53610,27428,9765,20415,905
FCF LTM28613,48113,9277,05015,2633,00910,266
FCF 3Y Avg8221,67716,1066,75814,9843,73210,871
CFO LTM494121,13717,6499,20840,9776,77413,428
CFO 3Y Avg36596,97719,5188,83837,5887,64614,178

Growth & Margins

WAMZNHDLOWWMTTGTMedian
NameWayfair Amazon.c.Home Dep.Lowe's C.Walmart Target  
Rev Chg LTM3.4%10.9%7.5%0.6%4.3%-2.2%3.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.3%11.3%1.9%-4.2%5.4%-1.1%0.8%
Rev Chg Q8.1%13.3%2.8%3.2%5.8%-1.6%4.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.9%3.0%0.7%0.8%1.4%-0.4%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM-0.5%11.4%13.0%12.2%4.1%4.9%8.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-3.9%7.9%13.7%12.5%4.1%5.1%6.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.0%0.3%-0.1%-0.2%-0.1%-0.2%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM4.0%18.1%10.6%10.9%5.8%6.4%8.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg3.0%15.8%12.4%10.3%5.6%7.2%8.7%
FCF/Rev LTM2.3%2.0%8.4%8.4%2.2%2.9%2.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.7%3.5%10.2%7.9%2.2%3.5%3.5%

Valuation

WAMZNHDLOWWMTTGTMedian
NameWayfair Amazon.c.Home Dep.Lowe's C.Walmart Target  
Mkt Cap13.32,353.6354.3138.6821.840.7246.4
P/S0.93.52.11.61.20.41.4
P/EBIT-53.027.416.413.3--14.8
P/E-35.733.124.320.435.910.822.4
P/CFO23.519.320.115.120.16.019.7
Total Yield-2.8%3.0%6.7%6.8%3.7%14.3%5.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%2.6%1.9%0.9%5.0%1.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.6%1.1%4.5%4.9%--2.8%
D/E0.30.10.20.3--0.2
Net D/E0.20.00.20.3--0.2

Returns

WAMZNHDLOWWMTTGTMedian
NameWayfair Amazon.c.Home Dep.Lowe's C.Walmart Target  
1M Rtn3.0%-5.0%0.3%10.2%12.6%11.4%6.6%
3M Rtn18.7%-4.5%-13.9%-7.0%11.1%12.3%3.3%
6M Rtn108.7%4.1%4.1%18.8%22.2%6.1%12.5%
12M Rtn103.2%-4.3%-10.5%-1.9%22.4%-21.8%-3.1%
3Y Rtn177.7%151.8%19.1%27.6%152.1%-25.3%89.7%
1M Excs Rtn2.2%-5.7%-0.4%9.5%11.8%10.7%5.8%
3M Excs Rtn14.6%-5.7%-15.3%-8.2%10.5%10.3%2.3%
6M Excs Rtn96.3%-8.3%-8.3%6.4%9.8%-6.3%0.1%
12M Excs Rtn84.9%-13.8%-23.4%-14.7%12.8%-34.5%-14.2%
3Y Excs Rtn106.4%75.9%-51.0%-40.1%74.7%-95.5%17.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment12,00312,21813,70814,1459,127
Total12,00312,21813,70814,1459,127


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity16,106,829
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-0.2%
Average Daily Volume3,093,416
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.21
Basic Shares Quantity130,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares12.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/28/202523.2%19.5%27.0%
8/4/202512.7%11.0%19.1%
5/1/20253.5%1.0%36.7%
2/20/2025-0.6%-8.0%-31.9%
11/1/2024-6.3%-7.1%12.3%
8/1/2024-8.1%-25.7%-22.6%
5/2/202416.0%35.0%17.7%
2/22/202410.8%18.3%34.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141414
# Negative888
Median Positive8.6%10.8%18.8%
Median Negative-5.6%-12.3%-21.7%
Max Positive23.2%35.0%38.1%
Max Negative-23.0%-25.7%-34.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025804202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023222202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021