VSE (VSEC)
Market Price (5/23/2026): $171.67 | Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
VSE (VSEC)
Market Price (5/23/2026): $171.67Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Freight Technology, and Advanced Air Mobility. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 48x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 416x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 95x Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.5% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% Key risksVSEC key risks include [1] challenges integrating its strategic acquisitions and [2] its significant debt load and the related potential for goodwill and asset write-downs. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -18% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Freight Technology, and Advanced Air Mobility. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 48x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 416x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 95x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.5% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.9% |
| Key risksVSEC key risks include [1] challenges integrating its strategic acquisitions and [2] its significant debt load and the related potential for goodwill and asset write-downs. |
Qualitative Assessment
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VSE (VSEC) stock has lost about 20% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. High Valuation and Profit-Taking Following Strong Performance.
VSE's stock reached an all-time high of $227.68 on February 20, 2026, and despite beating earnings per share (EPS) estimates in both Q4 2025 ($1.16 actual vs. $0.89 estimated) and Q1 2026 ($1.17 actual vs. $0.90 estimated), the stock was widely considered overvalued. For instance, as of May 8, 2026, VSEC was trading at $199.45, approximately 48.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of $134.66. This elevated valuation likely triggered significant profit-taking by investors, particularly after the Q1 2026 earnings release on May 5, 2026, where the stock initially surged by 23.4% but then declined 5.73% in pre-market trading due to profit-taking. The stock experienced an 8.6% drop on April 29, 2026, and a 21% decline in the week preceding April 25, 2026, contributing to the overall approximate 25% loss since January 31, 2026, and specifically a 25.39% decline over the 30 days leading up to May 18, 2026.
2. Financing Strategy for Precision Aviation Group (PAG) Acquisition.
In February 2026, VSE undertook significant public offerings to finance a portion of its $2.025 billion acquisition of Precision Aviation Group (PAG). These offerings included approximately $750 million in common stock and $400 million in tangible equity units, generating about $1.3 billion in net proceeds. Additionally, the company secured a new $900 million term loan B facility to complete the acquisition. While the acquisition, completed on May 5, 2026, is strategic for VSE's transformation into a pure-play aviation business, the substantial equity offerings likely raised concerns among investors regarding potential share dilution, and the increased debt from the term loan added leverage to the company's balance sheet. The stock saw an initial drop of 1.2% on February 2, 2026, following the announcement of these capital raises.
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1. High Valuation and Profit-Taking Following Strong Performance.
VSE's stock reached an all-time high of $227.68 on February 20, 2026, and despite beating earnings per share (EPS) estimates in both Q4 2025 ($1.16 actual vs. $0.89 estimated) and Q1 2026 ($1.17 actual vs. $0.90 estimated), the stock was widely considered overvalued. For instance, as of May 8, 2026, VSEC was trading at $199.45, approximately 48.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of $134.66. This elevated valuation likely triggered significant profit-taking by investors, particularly after the Q1 2026 earnings release on May 5, 2026, where the stock initially surged by 23.4% but then declined 5.73% in pre-market trading due to profit-taking. The stock experienced an 8.6% drop on April 29, 2026, and a 21% decline in the week preceding April 25, 2026, contributing to the overall approximate 25% loss since January 31, 2026, and specifically a 25.39% decline over the 30 days leading up to May 18, 2026.
2. Financing Strategy for Precision Aviation Group (PAG) Acquisition.
In February 2026, VSE undertook significant public offerings to finance a portion of its $2.025 billion acquisition of Precision Aviation Group (PAG). These offerings included approximately $750 million in common stock and $400 million in tangible equity units, generating about $1.3 billion in net proceeds. Additionally, the company secured a new $900 million term loan B facility to complete the acquisition. While the acquisition, completed on May 5, 2026, is strategic for VSE's transformation into a pure-play aviation business, the substantial equity offerings likely raised concerns among investors regarding potential share dilution, and the increased debt from the term loan added leverage to the company's balance sheet. The stock saw an initial drop of 1.2% on February 2, 2026, following the announcement of these capital raises.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -21.3% change in VSEC stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -76.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 218.47 | 171.88 | -21.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,038 | 1,181 | 13.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.1% | 4.2% | 290.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 403.5 | 95.0 | -76.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 21 | 27 | -24.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -21.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VSEC | -21.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.1% | 61.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.1% | 77.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.8% change in VSEC stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -71.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 180.51 | 171.88 | -4.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,038 | 1,181 | 13.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.1% | 4.2% | 290.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 333.4 | 95.0 | -71.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 21 | 27 | -24.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VSEC | -4.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 56.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 11.5% | 70.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 50.6% change in VSEC stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 116.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 114.15 | 171.88 | 50.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 786 | 1,181 | 50.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.9% | 4.2% | 116.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 150.0 | 95.0 | -36.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 20 | 27 | -26.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 50.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VSEC | 50.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 36.0% | 49.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 32.7% | 63.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 312.7% change in VSEC stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 400.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 41.65 | 171.88 | 312.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 740 | 1,181 | 59.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.8% | 4.2% | 11.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.0 | 95.0 | 400.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 13 | 27 | -53.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 312.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VSEC | 312.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.3% | 43.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 79.6% | 53.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VSEC Return | 60% | -22% | 39% | 48% | 82% | 1% | 367% |
| Peers Return | 7% | 8% | 41% | 21% | 28% | 5% | 163% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VSEC Win Rate | 67% | 25% | 67% | 67% | 75% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 58% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VSEC Max Drawdown | -18% | -46% | -30% | -22% | -18% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -26% | -13% | -17% | -21% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TDG, HEI, AIR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VSEC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -12.3% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.0% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 94 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -45.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 489 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -16.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -15.7% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.6% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 6 days |
In The Past
VSE's stock fell -3.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 4.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | VSEC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 94 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -45.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 489 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 117.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -39.4% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 15 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -23.8% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.3% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 104 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 146.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 314 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -26.7% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.4% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 47 days |
In The Past
VSE's stock fell -3.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 4.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About VSE (VSEC)
VSE Corporation operates as a diversified aftermarket products and services company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Aviation, Fleet, and Federal and Defense. The Aviation segment provides international parts supply and distribution, supply chain solutions, and component and engine accessory maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services. This segment serves commercial airlines, regional airlines, cargo transporters, MRO integrators and providers, aviation manufacturers, corporate and private aircraft owners, and fixed-base operators. The Fleet segment offers parts supply, inventory management, e-commerce fulfillment, logistics, and other services to assist aftermarket commercial and federal customers with their supply chain management. This segment also provides sale of vehicle parts and supply chain services to support client truck fleets, as well as sustainment solutions and managed inventory services to government and commercial truck fleets. The Federal and Defense segment offers aftermarket refurbishment and sustainment services to extend and maintain the life cycle of military vehicles, ships, and aircraft for the United States Department of Defense (DoD). This segment also provides foreign military sales services, engineering, logistics, maintenance, configuration management, prototyping, technology, and field support services to the DoD and other customers. In addition, this segment offers energy consulting services and IT solutions to various DoD, federal civilian agencies, and commercial clients. The company also provides vehicle and equipment maintenance and refurbishment, logistics, engineering support, energy services, and IT and health care IT solutions, as well as consulting services. VSE Corporation was incorporated in 1959 and is headquartered in Alexandria, Virginia.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for VSE Corporation (VSEC):
- Like a specialized **Grainger** providing comprehensive aftermarket parts, maintenance, and supply chain solutions for aircraft, commercial truck fleets, and military equipment.
- Similar to the extensive parts and service network of **Caterpillar**, but for a wider range of aircraft, commercial trucks, and military vehicles from various manufacturers.
- The **'Accenture for physical asset sustainment'** for the Department of Defense and other federal agencies, managing the lifecycle of military vehicles, ships, and aircraft.
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*Major Products and Services of VSE Corporation (VSEC)
- Aviation Aftermarket Services: Provides international parts supply and distribution, supply chain solutions, and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services for aircraft components and engines.
- Fleet Solutions: Offers parts supply, inventory management, e-commerce fulfillment, logistics, and sustainment solutions for commercial and government truck fleets.
- Federal & Defense Sustainment: Delivers aftermarket refurbishment, sustainment, engineering, logistics, and maintenance services to extend the life cycle of military vehicles, ships, and aircraft for the DoD.
- Foreign Military Sales Support: Provides specialized services supporting foreign military sales for defense customers.
- IT and Consulting Services: Offers IT solutions (including healthcare IT), energy consulting, and general consulting services to various federal, defense, and commercial clients.
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VSE Corporation (VSEC) primarily serves other companies and government entities rather than individuals. Based on the provided description, its major customers fall into the following categories:
- United States Government Entities: This includes the Department of Defense (DoD) and various federal civilian agencies, which are served across its Federal and Defense segment and for sustainment solutions in the Fleet segment.
- Commercial Aviation Sector Companies: Customers in this category include commercial airlines, regional airlines, cargo transporters, MRO integrators and providers, aviation manufacturers, corporate and private aircraft owners, and fixed-base operators.
- Commercial Fleet Operators: This comprises commercial truck fleets and other aftermarket commercial customers requiring supply chain management, vehicle parts, and sustainment solutions.
The provided company description does not list specific names of customer companies.
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- Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE: HON)
- Triumph Group (NYSE: TGI)
- Parker Hannifin Corporation (NYSE: PH)
- Safran S. A. (OTC: SAFRY)
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```htmlJohn A. Cuomo, President & Chief Executive Officer
John A. Cuomo was appointed Chief Executive Officer and President of VSE Corporation in April 2019. He brings over 20 years of experience in the aerospace distribution and services market industry. Prior to joining VSE, he served as Vice President and General Manager of Boeing Distribution Services Inc. Before Boeing's 2018 acquisition of the Aerospace Solutions Group of KLX Inc., John was its Vice President and General Manager, Consumables Management business, starting in July 2014. He also held multiple leadership roles at B/E Aerospace (the parent company of KLX, Inc. until 2014) from April 2000 to 2014, including Vice President & General Manager and Senior Vice President, Global Sales, Marketing & Business Development. Notably, John led and facilitated the $4.25 billion acquisition of KLX by Boeing. Before his time in aerospace, he practiced commercial law, mergers and acquisitions, and litigation as an attorney.
Adam Cohn, Chief Financial Officer
Adam Cohn joined VSE as Chief Financial Officer in September 2024. He is a seasoned executive finance leader with over 15 years of aerospace and finance-related experience. Adam previously served as Chief Financial Officer for Valence Surface Technologies, an aerospace supplier backed by ATL Partners and British Columbia Investment Management Corporation. Prior to his role at Valence, he held numerous senior leadership positions with Triumph (NYSE: TGI), a publicly traded aerospace manufacturer, including Treasurer and Vice President of Mergers and Acquisitions. In these roles, Adam executed multiple financing transactions, including replacing credit facilities, raising new bonds, and issuing equity, as well as several mergers, acquisitions, and divestiture transactions.
Ben Thomas, Chief Operating Officer
Ben Thomas was promoted to Chief Operating Officer for VSE Corporation in February 2025. He joined VSE in October 2020 as Group President, where he played a pivotal role in growing the Aviation business segment into a global market leader. In his current role, Ben leads all revenue channels, including Distribution, Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO), and OEM Solutions, as well as enterprise-wide Information Technology for the company.
Krista Stafford, Chief Human Resources & Administrative Officer
Krista Stafford joined VSE Corporation in January 2020 as Senior Vice President and Chief Human Resource Officer and was promoted to Chief Human Resources and Administrative Officer in February 2025. She specializes in organizational development, culture transformation, executive compensation, organizational design, and employee engagement, driving business results through people. Previously, Krista was the Vice President, Human Resources at Boeing Distribution Services.
Garry Snow, Chief Growth Officer
Garry Snow joined VSE as Chief Growth Officer in September 2024. He brings over 20 years of aerospace sales, business development, and distribution experience to the role. Most recently, Garry served as Head of Sales and Marketing for Business and General Aviation for Boeing Global Services. He also held numerous leadership roles over 15 years with Boeing Global Services and the Boeing-acquired KLX Aerospace Solutions business.
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```htmlKey Risks to VSE Corporation (VSEC):
- Dependence on U.S. Government Spending and Contract Awards: A significant portion of VSE's Federal and Defense segment revenue is derived from contracts with the United States Department of Defense (DoD) and other federal agencies. Changes in government defense spending, budgetary priorities, political factors, or the loss of key contracts could materially impact this segment's financial performance.
- Economic Sensitivity of Commercial Aviation and Fleet Markets: VSE's Aviation and Fleet segments are susceptible to economic downturns and cyclical spending patterns. Reduced air travel, lower demand for new aircraft, or decreased commercial fleet utilization can lead to reduced demand for parts, MRO services, and supply chain solutions, thereby affecting the company's revenue and profitability in these segments.
- Supply Chain Disruptions: As a provider of parts supply, distribution, and supply chain solutions across all its segments, VSE is exposed to risks associated with global supply chain disruptions. Issues such as raw material shortages, manufacturing delays, logistics challenges, or geopolitical events could impact the company's ability to source and deliver products and services, leading to increased costs or customer dissatisfaction.
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- Accelerated electrification of commercial and government fleets, which could significantly reduce the demand for traditional internal combustion engine vehicle parts and associated maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services offered by VSE's Fleet segment. Electric vehicles have fewer and different mechanical components compared to their fossil-fuel counterparts, thereby altering VSE's core aftermarket parts supply and sustainment business for truck fleets.
- The increasing adoption of additive manufacturing (3D printing) technologies across the aviation, fleet, and defense sectors. This technology enables the on-demand production of parts, potentially reducing the reliance on traditional parts distribution networks, inventory management, and certain aftermarket refurbishment services that VSE provides across its segments.
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VSE Corporation operates across diverse aftermarket products and services in the Aviation, Fleet, and Federal and Defense segments. The addressable markets for its main offerings are substantial:
Aviation Segment
- The global aviation Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) market was valued at approximately USD 90.73 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to around USD 145.28 billion by 2034. Another estimate places the global aircraft MRO market at USD 120.3 billion in 2025, anticipated to reach around USD 172.73 billion by 2035.
- The global aircraft aftermarket parts market was valued at USD 48.71 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 93.52 billion by 2032. North America held a significant share of this market, at 33.02% in 2023.
- The global aircraft component MRO market was valued at USD 20.36 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 28.42 billion by 2034. North America accounted for 30.70% of this market in 2025.
- The Aircraft Parts Distributors market in the U.S. is projected to reach USD 68.0 billion in 2025.
Fleet Segment
- The U.S. fleet management market size was valued at USD 12.20 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 28.93 billion by 2032. Other estimates indicate the U.S. market could reach USD 32.63 billion by 2034.
- The global commercial vehicle spare parts aftermarket was valued at USD 107,837.2 million in 2024 and is projected to exceed USD 141,542.27 million by 2034.
- The global heavy-duty automotive aftermarket market size was valued at USD 150.1 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 195.4 billion by 2034. North America currently holds 40.5% of this market in 2025.
Federal and Defense Segment
- The global military aviation MRO market was valued at approximately USD 42.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 61.7 billion by 2031. North America held the largest market share at 38.7% in 2024.
- The defense logistics market in the United States generated a revenue of USD 45,865.2 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 65,373.0 million by 2030. Globally, the defense logistics market was estimated at USD 165.2 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow. North America dominated the global defense logistics market with 35.0% revenue share in 2023.
- The global military vehicle sustainment market size was valued at USD 21.86 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 38.80 billion by 2032. North America's military vehicle sustainment market share stood at 34.68% in 2024, valued at USD 7.58 billion.
- The U.S. federal government software market was valued at USD 13.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 30.5 billion by 2033. North America holds approximately 55% of this market. Additionally, the U.S. federal government allocated around USD 24.4 billion for major federal IT investments in fiscal year 2023.
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VSE Corporation (VSEC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies primarily focused on its aviation aftermarket business.
Here are 4-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for VSE Corporation:
- Strategic Acquisitions and Integration: A major driver of future revenue growth for VSE is its strategy of strategic acquisitions and their successful integration. The company recently announced the transformative $2 billion acquisition of Precision Aviation Group (PAG), which is expected to significantly expand its scale and enhance its engine and component service capabilities across the aviation maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market, as well as distribution services. Additionally, VSE anticipates continued contributions and synergy realization from recent acquisitions such as Turbine Weld, Aero 3, and TCI, which are projected to contribute to revenue growth in 2026 and beyond.
- Organic Expansion in Aviation Distribution and MRO Services: VSE is focused on generating organic revenue growth within its Aviation segment. This includes the expansion of existing OEM partnerships, strong execution of new and existing distribution programs, and the introduction of new product lines and repair capabilities. The company is also prioritizing increased MRO activity and the expansion of its MRO capacity to meet growing demand.
- Market Share Gains and Targeted Growth in Commercial and Business & General Aviation (B&GA) Markets: VSE aims to increase its market share by focusing on both the commercial and Business & General Aviation sectors. This strategy includes leveraging new program awards, developing proprietary content, and expanding its presence in underserved market niches within B&GA with specialized distribution and MRO offerings. International expansion for MRO and distribution services is also identified as a growth opportunity.
- Sustained Demand and Strategic Pricing in the Aviation Aftermarket: The underlying strength and continued demand in the global aviation aftermarket are expected to contribute significantly to VSE's revenue growth. Factors such as increased air travel and sustained aircraft utilization support ongoing needs for aftermarket parts and services. While aggressive pricing increases seen in previous years have moderated, management expects a balanced contribution from both price and volume to overall market growth, indicating continued strategic pricing as a revenue component.
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Share Issuance
- In February 2026, VSE priced public offerings of common stock and tangible equity units totaling approximately $1.11 billion in net proceeds, or up to $1.28 billion if underwriters exercise their options. These proceeds are primarily for funding a portion of the Precision Aviation Group (PAG) acquisition.
- To fund the acquisition of Aero 3, VSE completed a public offering of 2,352,941 shares of common stock at $170.00 per share, raising approximately $441.6 million in net proceeds.
- An approximately 10% stock dilution was associated with the Aero 3 acquisition, involving the intended sale of 2.4 million shares at $170 per share.
Outbound Investments
- In January 2026, VSE entered a definitive agreement to acquire Precision Aviation Group, Inc. (PAG) for approximately $2.025 billion, comprising upfront cash and equity, plus potential earn-out consideration. The acquisition is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026.
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, VSE agreed to acquire Aero 3, Inc. for $350 million in cash to expand its global presence in the aircraft wheel and brake aftermarket.
- VSE completed the acquisition of Turbine Weld in 2025 and Kellstrom Aerospace in 2024, as part of its strategy to deepen capabilities and product lines in the aviation segment.
Capital Expenditures
- In the fourth quarter of 2025, purchases of property, plant and equipment (capital spending) amounted to $6.8 million, representing a 107.3% increase year-over-year.
- For the full year 2025, capital expenditures were reported as -$21.28 million as part of free cash flow calculation.
- An initial inventory investment of approximately $45 million is required for a new APU components distribution agreement in 2026, which is expected to impact free cash flow.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| 9-Day Sell-Off Sends VSE Stock Down 24% | 05/20/2026 | |
| VSE Stock Slides 19% With A 8-Day Losing Spree | 05/19/2026 | |
| 7-Day Sell-Off Sends VSE Stock Down 18% | 05/16/2026 | |
| VSE Stock Plummets 20% With 11-Day Losing Streak | 03/25/2026 | |
| VSE Stock Plummets 19% With 10-Day Losing Streak | 03/24/2026 | |
| VSE Stock Shares Sink 13% In A Day, Should You Buy The Stock? | 02/03/2026 | |
| With VSE Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | 02/03/2026 | |
| VSE Earnings Notes | 12/29/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| VSE Stock 9-Day Losing Spree: Stock Falls -24% | 05/20/2026 | |
| VSE Stock In Shambles: Down -19% With 8-Day Losing Streak | 05/19/2026 | |
| VSE Stock Plummets -18% With 7-Day Losing Streak | 05/16/2026 | |
| VSE Stock Plummets -20% With 11-Day Losing Streak | 03/25/2026 | |
| VSE Stock Slides -19% With A 10-Day Losing Spree | 03/24/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to VSEC.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 236.46 |
| Mkt Cap | 23.3 |
| Rev LTM | 3,884 |
| Op Inc LTM | 659 |
| FCF LTM | 439 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 337 |
| CFO LTM | 502 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 388 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 21.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 21.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 36.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 28.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 23.3 |
| P/S | 5.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 27.5 |
| P/EBIT | 27.8 |
| P/E | 46.4 |
| P/CFO | 45.5 |
| Total Yield | 2.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 24.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 93.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 7.5% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $171.88 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/18/1995 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -24.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $187.36 | $182.92 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -8.3% | -6.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 76.4% | 53.6% |
| Downside Capture | 436.04 | 195.82 |
| Upside Capture | 206.98 | 173.37 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 64.5% | 49.7% |
VSEC Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 4.97 | 3.05 | 2.44 | 2.34 | 1.89 | 1.35 |
| Up Beta | 5.26 | 5.01 | 4.57 | 3.73 | 2.62 | 1.41 |
| Down Beta | 22.05 | 1.52 | 2.28 | 1.84 | 1.84 | 1.31 |
| Up Capture | 181% | 160% | 124% | 222% | 211% | 375% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 14 | 27 | 55 | 126 | 399 |
| Down Capture | 1071% | 311% | 183% | 172% | 133% | 104% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 29 | 37 | 70 | 126 | 353 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VSEC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VSEC | 33.4% | 53.5% | 0.72 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 23.3% | 15.4% | 1.16 | 64.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.5% | 12.0% | 1.86 | 49.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.5% | 26.8% | 1.11 | 27.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 42.9% | 18.7% | 1.77 | -17.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.2% | 13.1% | 0.82 | 42.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.5% | 41.7% | -0.73 | 21.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VSEC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VSEC | 32.5% | 46.0% | 0.76 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.2% | 17.4% | 0.54 | 55.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.0% | 0.64 | 47.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 18.0% | 0.85 | 12.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.4% | 19.4% | 0.42 | 6.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.8% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 38.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.2% | 55.3% | 0.42 | 19.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VSEC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VSEC | 19.0% | 46.9% | 0.54 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.0% | 20.0% | 0.62 | 53.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.7% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 46.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | 4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 17.9% | 0.35 | 14.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 39.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.2% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 12.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | 16.9% | 2.6% | |
| 1/29/2026 | 5.6% | -6.0% | 10.2% |
| 10/27/2025 | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| 7/30/2025 | 10.6% | 10.4% | 14.3% |
| 2/27/2025 | 0.6% | -1.9% | -1.0% |
| 10/15/2024 | 17.6% | 13.0% | 35.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | -6.6% | -1.8% | 10.5% |
| 3/1/2024 | -0.6% | 1.7% | 2.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 8 | 6 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 5.3% | 2.6% | 8.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -4.6% | -2.5% |
| Max Positive | 17.6% | 13.0% | 35.0% |
| Max Negative | -6.9% | -9.3% | -11.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/27/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/10/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 57.0% | 59.0% | 61.0% | 181.0% | 38.0% | Raised | Guidance: 21.0% for 2026 |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 18.1% | 18.3% | 18.5% | 7.3% | 1.2% | Raised | Guidance: 17.05% for 2026 |
| 2026 Adjusted Net Leverage | 3 | ||||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 19.0% | 21.0% | 23.0% | -46.2% | -18.0% | Lower New | Actual: 39.0% for 2025 |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | 16.8% | 17.05% | 17.3% | -0.4% | -0.1% | Lower New | Actual: 17.13% for 2025 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Britt, Anita D | Direct | Sell | 5122025 | 129.38 | 2,869 | 371,191 | 496,431 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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