Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 34x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 77x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 307x
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.6%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Freight Technology, and Advanced Air Mobility.
 
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 68%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 46%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Freight Technology, and Advanced Air Mobility.
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 34x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 77x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 307x
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

VSEC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining VSE Corporation's (VSEC) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. VSE reported robust third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 27, 2025, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $0.99, surpassing the analysts' consensus estimate of $0.84. Additionally, the company's quarterly revenue increased by 38.9% year-over-year, reaching $282.91 million, which also exceeded consensus expectations.

2. Upward Revision of Full-Year 2025 Guidance. Following its strong Q3 performance, VSE raised its full-year 2025 guidance for the Aviation segment. The company increased its revenue growth forecast to 38%-40% from the previous 35%-40%, and its adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to 17%-17.25% from 16.5%-17%. This positive outlook on future performance likely contributed to investor confidence.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
VSEC Return3%60%-22%39%48%80%370%
Peers Return-13%-2%-3%14%-2%47%36%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VSEC Win Rate58%67%25%67%67%90% 
Peers Win Rate17%8%10%12%5%31% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VSEC Max Drawdown-64%-10%-45%-12%-11%-5% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-5%-7%-0%-2%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventVSECS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-47.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven92.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven526 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-63.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven175.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven267 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-59.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven145.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven889 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-66.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven196.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1876 days1480 days

Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC


In The Past

VSE's stock fell -47.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/12/2021. A -47.9% loss requires a 92.1% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About VSE (VSEC)

Better Bets than VSE (VSEC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to VSEC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for VSE

Peers to compare with:

Financials

VSECFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameVSE Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Mkt Price168.5818.5551.72-29.503.5429.50
Mkt Cap3.5-1.8---2.7
Rev LTM1,332101831--4466
Op Inc LTM124-21150---921
FCF LTM27-19951---99
FCF 3Y Avg-36-8---11-11
CFO LTM45-16574---918
CFO 3Y Avg-17-22---10-10

Growth & Margins

VSECFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameVSE Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Rev Chg LTM67.8%-6.2%--166.4%67.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg41.3%-19.5%--94.3%41.3%
Rev Chg Q38.9%-3.8%--330.2%38.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.3%-0.9%--35.8%6.3%
Op Mgn LTM9.3%-209.3%6.0%---209.1%-101.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.6%-2.2%---699.5%2.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.5%-1.7%--86.7%1.7%
CFO/Rev LTM3.4%-164.1%8.9%---212.3%-80.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-2.9%-2.5%---716.7%-2.9%
FCF/Rev LTM2.0%-197.5%6.1%---216.3%-97.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-5.0%-0.8%---777.8%-5.0%

Valuation

VSECFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameVSE Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Mkt Cap3.5-1.8---2.7
P/S2.6-1.9---2.3
P/EBIT34.3-32.3---33.3
P/E307.0--523.2----108.1
P/CFO76.9-22.0---49.4
Total Yield0.6%--0.2%---0.2%
Dividend Yield0.2%-0.0%---0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.9%--0.5%----2.2%
D/E0.1-0.2---0.2
Net D/E0.1-0.2---0.2

Returns

VSECFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameVSE Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
1M Rtn-6.8%-22.0%6.1%---10.6%-8.7%
3M Rtn4.1%-58.2%40.5%--19.6%11.9%
6M Rtn28.7%-61.1%---44.9%
12M Rtn47.2%-215.2%---131.2%
3Y Rtn239.5%-466.5%---353.0%
1M Excs Rtn-6.8%-22.0%6.1%---10.6%-8.7%
3M Excs Rtn-2.9%-62.0%27.1%--13.0%5.1%
6M Excs Rtn14.0%-46.4%---30.2%
12M Excs Rtn30.7%-206.7%---118.7%
3Y Excs Rtn184.1%-493.7%---338.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aviation544408248165225
Fleet316261234242215
Corporate/unallocated expenses0    
Federal and Defense  269254314
Total860669751662753


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aviation7136-14-3618
Fleet3124202730
Corporate/unallocated expenses-14-7-4-4-6
Federal and Defense  202618
Total8854221460


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aviation950638580479522
Fleet274218182161170
Corporate/unallocated expenses12633647364
Assets held-for-sale 111   
Federal and Defense  936789
Total1,3501,000919780846


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,518,629
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-3.2%
Average Daily Volume246,519
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.16
Basic Shares Quantity20,681,203
Short % of Basic Shares7.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251027202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023308202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022310202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021311202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0BRITT ANITA D 5122025Sell129.382,869371,191496,431Form