Tearsheet

Innovate (VATE)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.01 | Market Cap: $65.9 Mil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Construction & Engineering

Innovate (VATE)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.01
Market Cap: $65.9 Mil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Construction & Engineering

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 27%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -131%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 970%
1   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -14%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -23%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -116%
3   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 117%
4   Significant short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 15.15
0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 27%
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -131%
2 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 970%
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -14%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -23%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -116%
5 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 117%
6 Significant short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 15.15

Valuation, Metrics & Events

VATE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Innovate Corp (VATE) experienced several key events between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, that could have influenced its stock movement. While a precise -7.9% drop explanation across the entire period isn't explicitly detailed in a single source, the following points highlight significant developments:

1. Innovate Corp reported a net loss of $9.4 million, or $0.71 per share, in its Third Quarter 2025 results, though this was an improvement from a $15.3 million loss in the prior year quarter. However, the stock price reportedly rose by 3.55% to close at $5.5 following the Q3 2025 earnings announcement on November 12, 2025.

2. The company's Second Quarter 2025 results, released on August 5, 2025, showed a revenue decline of 22.7% to $242.0 million from $313.1 million in Q2 2024, and a net loss of $22.0 million ($1.67 per share) compared to a net income of $14.1 million ($1.03 per share) in the prior year quarter. Following the Q2 2025 earnings report, the stock price went up 2.377%.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
VATE Return50%13%-49%-34%-60%1%-77%
Peers Return9%25%6%17%30%39%206%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VATE Win Rate42%50%50%42%25%30% 
Peers Win Rate28%32%35%37%35%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VATE Max Drawdown-38%-6%-82%-46%-73%-17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-43%-5%-14%-8%-6%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DY, FLR, GVA, LGN, MGN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventVATES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-85.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven598.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-68.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven216.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven365 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-72.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven266.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days

Compare to DY, FLR, GVA, LGN, MGN


In The Past

Innovate's stock fell -85.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/10/2021. A -85.7% loss requires a 598.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Innovate (VATE)

Better Bets than Innovate (VATE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
0DASHBOARDS 
1How Low Can Innovate Stock Really Go?Return
Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to VATE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Innovate

Peers to compare with:

Financials

VATEDYFLRGVALGNMGNMedian
NameInnovate Dycom In.Fluor Granite .Legence Megan  
Mkt Price4.98352.8044.05106.9945.962.0745.00
Mkt Cap0.110.27.14.7--5.9
Rev LTM9954,99315,5884,2362,094-4,236
Op Inc LTM17381-22625788-88
FCF LTM1812323734622-123
FCF 3Y Avg1244240204--124
CFO LTM3939730646244-306
CFO 3Y Avg32284355333--309

Growth & Margins

VATEDYFLRGVALGNMGNMedian
NameInnovate Dycom In.Fluor Granite .Legence Megan  
Rev Chg LTM-27.1%12.6%-1.8%6.9%--2.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-14.0%13.0%4.7%8.7%--6.7%
Rev Chg Q-22.7%14.5%-17.7%12.4%---2.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-6.7%3.6%-4.5%3.9%---0.4%
Op Mgn LTM1.7%7.6%-1.4%6.1%4.2%-4.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg2.3%7.5%0.6%3.9%--3.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.1%0.5%-3.3%0.7%---0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM3.9%8.0%2.0%10.9%2.1%-3.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg2.7%6.2%2.2%8.3%--4.5%
FCF/Rev LTM1.8%2.5%1.5%8.2%1.1%-1.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.1%0.9%1.5%4.9%--1.3%

Valuation

VATEDYFLRGVALGNMGNMedian
NameInnovate Dycom In.Fluor Granite .Legence Megan  
Mkt Cap0.110.27.14.7--5.9
P/S0.11.40.41.1--0.8
P/EBIT3.617.3-57.315.1--9.3
P/E-0.927.12.026.3--14.2
P/CFO1.717.822.310.4--14.1
Total Yield-112.1%3.7%49.7%4.0%--3.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg37.2%0.6%2.8%4.7%--3.7%
D/E10.20.20.20.3--0.2
Net D/E9.70.2-0.30.2--0.2

Returns

VATEDYFLRGVALGNMGNMedian
NameInnovate Dycom In.Fluor Granite .Legence Megan  
1M Rtn-5.1%23.3%-8.3%4.4%10.9%25.5%7.6%
3M Rtn-12.0%41.7%2.8%1.3%-83.2%2.8%
6M Rtn-11.2%49.2%2.7%19.6%-83.2%19.6%
12M Rtn-15.6%84.9%-19.5%8.6%-83.2%8.6%
3Y Rtn-64.7%287.3%23.5%201.3%-83.2%83.2%
1M Excs Rtn-5.1%23.3%-8.3%4.4%11.0%25.5%7.7%
3M Excs Rtn-15.5%33.6%0.9%-6.5%-77.8%0.9%
6M Excs Rtn-26.0%34.5%-12.0%4.9%-68.5%4.9%
12M Excs Rtn-31.4%81.2%-35.1%-5.3%-69.6%-5.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-131.0%222.8%-39.3%145.9%-10.4%10.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Infrastructure1,3971,5941,160677713
Spectrum2239424042
Life Sciences344  
Non-operating Corporate0    
Other and Eliminations0   -10
Insurance    332
Other    0
Total1,4231,6371,2057171,077


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Infrastructure6458352045
Other and Eliminations-3   -10
Spectrum-3-4-1-2-11
Life Sciences-15-20-20-17-9
Non-operating Corporate-16-20-23-27-25
Other -1-2-3-2
Insurance    37
Total2713-11-2825


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Infrastructure851879786476530
Spectrum177188199214258
Life Sciences815222128
Non-operating Corporate715253027
Other and Eliminations0  -38-96
Other 54486,021598
Insurance    5,612
Total1,0441,1521,0816,7246,958


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity338,035
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120250.1%
Average Daily Volume22,315
Days-to-Cover Short Interest15.15
Basic Shares Quantity13,146,750
Short % of Basic Shares2.6%

Returns Analyses

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024331202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023306202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022314202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021309202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211104202110-Q 9/30/2021