Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD)
Market Price (5/3/2026): $3.13 | Market Cap: $29.4 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology
Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD)
Market Price (5/3/2026): $3.13Market Cap: $29.4 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Biotechnology
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -104% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -125%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -161% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -25 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -965% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -915%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -915% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -50% High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 113% Key risksTVRD key risks include [1] the recent Phase 2 clinical trial failure of its lead candidate, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -104% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Biopharmaceutical R&D, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -125%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -161% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -25 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -965% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -915%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -915% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -50% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 113% |
| Key risksTVRD key risks include [1] the recent Phase 2 clinical trial failure of its lead candidate, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Delayed Clinical Trial Results for Key Programs.
Tvardi Therapeutics experienced a setback with the updated timeline for its TTI-101 REVERT Liver Cancer trial, with preliminary topline data now anticipated in the second half of 2026, pushed from the first half of 2026 to allow for data maturation. This delay extended the period of uncertainty for a key clinical asset. Furthermore, while additional analysis from the Phase 2 REVERT IPF trial showed a 9.4% reduction in fibrosis score for TTI-101 compared to 2.4% for placebo, earlier preliminary results from this study in October 2025 indicated it did not meet its primary objectives, citing overlapping changes in forced vital capacity between groups, unexpected placebo performance, and high variability.
2. Disappointing Financial Performance and Limited Cash Runway.
The company reported a fourth-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of ($0.78), missing the consensus estimate of ($0.55) by $0.23, as announced on March 31, 2026. Looking forward, earnings for Tvardi Therapeutics are expected to decrease from ($2.01) to ($3.72) per share in the coming year, reflecting continued losses. As of December 31, 2025, Tvardi's cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments stood at $30.8 million, with the cash runway projected only into the fourth quarter of 2026, raising concerns about future financing needs.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -20.9% change in TVRD stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.9% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.97 | 3.14 | -20.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3 | 2 | -16.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 14.5 | 13.8 | -5.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 9 | 9 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -20.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TVRD | -20.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 41.6% |
| Sector (XLV) | -5.8% | 33.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -32.5% change in TVRD stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.65 | 3.14 | -32.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 2 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | 13.8 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 9 | 9 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TVRD | -32.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 34.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 1.5% | 21.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -87.4% change in TVRD stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5022026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.94 | 3.14 | -87.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 2 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | 13.8 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 9 | 9 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TVRD | -87.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 5.1% |
| Sector (XLV) | 5.2% | 9.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/2/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TVRD | ||
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 5.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 14.3% | 10.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TVRD Return | - | - | - | - | -76% | -27% | -83% |
| Peers Return | -7% | 32% | 41% | -1% | 2% | 5% | 82% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TVRD Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 67% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 67% | 58% | 50% | 67% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TVRD Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -79% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | 0% | -2% | -3% | -23% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VRTX, ALPS, AVLN, DFTX, EIKN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/1/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
TVRD has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -13.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 166 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 17.6% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 191 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -15.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 165 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 153 days | 123 days |
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -11.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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TVRD has limited trading history. Below is the Health Care sector ETF (XLV) in its place.
| Event | XLV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -27.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 767 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -11.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 13.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD)
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Imran Alibhai, Ph.D., Chief Executive Officer
Prior to becoming CEO of Tvardi, Dr. Alibhai was a Senior Vice President and Managing Director of DNAtrix, a clinical-stage biotech company focused on oncolytic viruses for cancer. During his tenure at DNAtrix, the company secured multiple financing rounds, initiated a Phase 2 immuno-oncology collaboration with Merck, and advanced a next-generation armed virus into the clinic. He previously worked as an investment banker in PJ Solomon's Healthcare Advisory Group, concentrating on M&A transactions in science-based markets. Dr. Alibhai also held roles as Senior Director at Alexandria Venture Investments, where he managed investments in emerging healthcare companies, and directed investments for MPM Capital's BioEquities hedge fund. He began his career in early-stage venture capital at the Accelerator Corp., gaining experience in company formation and management.
Dan Conn, J.D., M.B.A., Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Conn brings a comprehensive background in corporate law, finance, and business management. He started his career as an M&A and securities lawyer before transitioning to investment banking. As an investment banker, he served as an Executive Director at Morgan Stanley and a Director at PJ Solomon, where he focused on M&A, restructuring, and financing transactions across the life sciences and other sectors. Mr. Conn also worked on the buy side, investing in various industries, including life sciences, as a Vice President and Portfolio Manager at D.E. Shaw & Co and later as a Senior Vice President and Portfolio Manager at Brookfield Asset Management. His recent focus has been on operational aspects, directing the development and monetization of intellectual property rights.
John Kauh, M.D., Chief Medical Officer
Dr. Kauh is a board-certified medical oncologist with demonstrated leadership in both early and late-phase drug development. His experience includes guiding US and EU regulatory submissions for drug approval.
Joseph Chen, Ph.D., Vice President, CMC
Dr. Chen possesses 25 years of experience in the Chemistry, Manufacturing, and Controls (CMC) development of drug substances and products. He has extensive expertise in both technical leadership and management oversight for CMC development and manufacturing, both in-house and with Contract Manufacturing Organizations (CMOs). Prior to joining Tvardi, he held positions of increasing responsibility at Boehringer Ingelheim, Tanox, Johnson-Johnson, and Lexicon Pharmaceuticals, leading CMC development for numerous pharmaceutical and biological products.
Stephen O'Brien, CPA, VP, Finance and Corporate Controller
Mr. O'Brien has over 20 years of experience in accounting and financial reporting within the life sciences industry, working with both private and public companies. He was responsible for financial reporting at Eyetech Pharmaceuticals and 3-Dimensional Pharmaceuticals, where he played a role in their IPO processes and managed ongoing public reporting after their listings.
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Tvardi Therapeutics (TVRD) faces several key risks inherent to its business as a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company.Key Risks to Tvardi Therapeutics
- Clinical Trial Failure and Regulatory Approval Risk: As a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, Tvardi Therapeutics' success is heavily dependent on the successful outcome of its ongoing clinical trials and subsequent regulatory approvals for its product candidates. The company's lead product candidate, TTI-101, is currently in Phase 2 clinical trials for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A significant concern is the reported failure of the lead lung disease candidate to show clinical benefit in preliminary Phase 2 REVERT trial data, which led to a significant stock decline. Negative results from ongoing or future clinical trials, or the inability to obtain regulatory approval, would severely impact the company's viability and stock performance.
- Financial Sustainability and Funding Risk: Tvardi Therapeutics exhibits signs of financial strain, having reported a deeply negative net margin of -678.79% and a return on equity of -565.83%. These metrics raise serious concerns about the company's ability to sustain operations long enough to achieve clinical milestones and commercialize its products. The company went public in April 2025 through a merger with Cara Therapeutics, a move that provided access to critical funding required to advance its pipeline programs. However, continued heavy investment in clinical development without a clear path to profitability or sustained funding could jeopardize its long-term operations.
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| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Tvardi Therapeutics Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Can Tvardi Therapeutics Stock Recover If Markets Fall? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to TVRD.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEHC | GE HealthCare Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | UHS | Universal Health Services | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ABT | Abbott Laboratories | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | ZBIO | Zenas BioPharma | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 15.69 |
| Mkt Cap | 53.8 |
| Rev LTM | 3 |
| Op Inc LTM | -25 |
| FCF LTM | -23 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 870 |
| CFO LTM | -23 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,067 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 51.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 303.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -463.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 24.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 81.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -442.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -444.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 53.8 |
| P/S | 10.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 11.2 |
| P/EBIT | 10.9 |
| P/E | 12.5 |
| P/CFO | 14.2 |
| Total Yield | -21.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -1.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -40.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -79.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $3.14 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/31/2014 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -92.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $16.58 | $20.48 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -81.1% | -84.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 61.9% | 114.0% |
| Downside Capture | 1.21 | 0.52 |
| Upside Capture | 63.66 | -185.32 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 39.6% | 4.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.52 | 1.63 | 1.65 | 1.52 | 0.46 | -0.75 |
| Up Beta | 2.47 | 2.75 | 2.73 | 2.66 | 0.58 | 0.50 |
| Down Beta | -0.73 | 0.91 | 1.24 | 1.53 | 1.05 | 0.26 |
| Up Capture | 79% | 32% | 61% | 39% | -55% | -5% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 17 | 26 | 51 | 114 | 119 |
| Down Capture | 1143% | 221% | 189% | 152% | 101% | 50% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 25 | 35 | 65 | 128 | 131 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TVRD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TVRD | -87.6% | 113.9% | -0.75 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.2% | 16.0% | 0.13 | 9.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.6% | 12.5% | 1.88 | 5.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.5% | 27.2% | 1.20 | -8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 51.5% | 17.9% | 2.20 | -12.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.1% | 13.5% | 0.67 | 6.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.1% | 42.2% | -0.33 | 9.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TVRD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TVRD | -29.7% | 114.4% | -0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.0% | 14.6% | 0.17 | 10.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 5.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.5% | 17.9% | 0.94 | -8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.3% | 19.1% | 0.61 | -13.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.5% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 7.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.7% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 10.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TVRD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TVRD | -16.2% | 114.4% | -0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.1% | 16.5% | 0.45 | 10.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 5.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.6% | 15.9% | 0.71 | -8.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 17.7% | 0.46 | -13.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 7.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.7% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 10.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/31/2026 | -5.7% | -4.1% | -0.9% |
| 11/13/2025 | -1.9% | -7.1% | 2.2% |
| 8/14/2025 | 0.9% | 12.0% | 41.9% |
| 5/13/2025 | -0.7% | 4.5% | -1.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| # Negative | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Median Positive | 0.9% | 8.3% | 22.0% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -5.6% | -1.3% |
| Max Positive | 0.9% | 12.0% | 41.9% |
| Max Negative | -5.7% | -7.1% | -1.6% |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/31/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Cash Runway | |||||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/13/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Cash Runway | Affirmed | Guidance: 0 for Q4 2026 | |||||
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