TRX Gold (TRX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $0.7421 | Market Cap: $218.1 MilSector: Materials | Industry: Gold
TRX Gold (TRX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $0.7421Market Cap: $218.1 MilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Gold
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | Penny stockMkt Price is 0.7 |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 332x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Resource Demand. Themes include Precious Metals Mining, and Mineral Exploration & Development. | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 116%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 107% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.9% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Resource Demand. Themes include Precious Metals Mining, and Mineral Exploration & Development. |
| Penny stockMkt Price is 0.7 |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 332x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 116%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 107% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.9% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TRX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
I cannot provide an analysis of TRX Gold's stock movement for the period between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, as this falls outside the scope of available historical data. I do not have access to real-time or future market data and news necessary to explain a hypothetical 96% stock movement during that specified period.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TRX Return | 7% | -40% | -15% | 12% | -19% | 135% | 17% |
| Peers Return | 41% | -14% | -6% | -1% | 9% | 128% | 178% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TRX Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 90% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 45% | 48% | 52% | 47% | 78% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TRX Max Drawdown | -33% | -45% | -32% | 0% | -25% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -28% | -32% | -22% | -21% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TRX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -71.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 256.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -46.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -59.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 146.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 139 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -74.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 296.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 694 days | 1480 days |
Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM
In The Past
TRX Gold's stock fell -71.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -71.9% loss requires a 256.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Would You Still Hold TRX Gold Stock If It Fell 30%? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TRX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for TRX Gold
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 65.08 |
| Mkt Cap | 54.3 |
| Rev LTM | 6,057 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,146 |
| FCF LTM | 226 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 124 |
| CFO LTM | 1,310 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,056 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 32.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 24.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 30.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 41.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 26.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 42.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 36.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 54.3 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 8.1 |
| P/E | 18.7 |
| P/CFO | 10.0 |
| Total Yield | 6.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 21.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 52.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 103.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 126.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 37.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 89.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 76.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 5312025 | 7152025 | 6-K 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 4142025 | 6-K 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 1142025 | 6-K 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 11292024 | 40-F 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 7152024 | 6-K 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 4122024 | 6-K 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 1162024 | 6-K 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 11292023 | 40-F 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 7142023 | 6-K 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 4132023 | 6-K 2/28/2023 |
| 11302022 | 1172023 | 6-K 11/30/2022 |
| 8312022 | 11292022 | 40-F 8/31/2022 |
| 5312022 | 7152022 | 6-K 5/31/2022 |
| 2282022 | 4142022 | 6-K 2/28/2022 |
| 11302021 | 1142022 | 6-K 11/30/2021 |
| 8312021 | 12032021 | 20-F 8/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |