Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%
Penny stock
Mkt Price is 0.7
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 332x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Resource Demand. Themes include Precious Metals Mining, and Mineral Exploration & Development.
Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 116%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 107%
3  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%
4  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.9%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 29%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Global Resource Demand. Themes include Precious Metals Mining, and Mineral Exploration & Development.
3 Penny stock
Mkt Price is 0.7
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 332x
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 116%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 107%
6 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TRX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

I cannot provide an analysis of TRX Gold's stock movement for the period between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, as this falls outside the scope of available historical data. I do not have access to real-time or future market data and news necessary to explain a hypothetical 96% stock movement during that specified period.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TRX Return7%-40%-15%12%-19%135%17%
Peers Return41%-14%-6%-1%9%128%178%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TRX Win Rate50%25%42%42%50%90% 
Peers Win Rate48%45%48%52%47%78% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TRX Max Drawdown-33%-45%-32%0%-25%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-28%-32%-22%-21%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTRXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-71.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven256.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-46.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven85.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-59.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven146.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven139 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-74.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven296.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven694 days1480 days

Compare to B, FNV, FSM, NEM, AEM


In The Past

TRX Gold's stock fell -71.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -71.9% loss requires a 256.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About TRX Gold (TRX)

Better Bets than TRX Gold (TRX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TRX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for TRX Gold

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TRXBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameTRX Gold Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Mkt Price0.7340.50202.459.5589.65169.1865.08
Mkt Cap0.269.539.02.998.385.054.3
Rev LTM4813,8241,5461,35221,50310,5686,057
Op Inc LTM105,3511,0694269,3595,2233,146
FCF LTM-1--8562266,1223,645226
FCF 3Y Avg-1--161242,6362,041124
CFO LTM14-1,3104559,2245,8371,310
CFO 3Y Avg14-1,0563395,6163,8831,056

Growth & Margins

TRXBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameTRX Gold Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Rev Chg LTM30.0%16.9%41.1%68.1%26.6%35.2%32.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg107.4%5.9%7.7%26.7%23.9%26.0%24.9%
Rev Chg Q22.9%16.4%76.9%38.3%20.0%41.9%30.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.1%3.9%15.9%5.4%4.5%9.4%5.3%
Op Mgn LTM20.7%38.7%69.1%31.5%43.5%49.4%41.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg23.3%29.4%64.1%22.0%23.9%36.0%26.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.8%3.2%0.8%2.9%4.5%3.6%3.1%
CFO/Rev LTM29.0%-84.7%33.7%42.9%55.2%42.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg36.7%-81.3%35.4%32.6%45.6%36.7%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.5%--55.4%16.7%28.5%34.5%16.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-1.9%-4.6%11.7%13.8%22.7%11.7%

Valuation

TRXBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameTRX Gold Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
Mkt Cap0.269.539.02.998.385.054.3
P/S2.12.627.82.04.38.03.4
P/EBIT7.46.336.75.98.916.28.1
P/E331.512.946.711.912.924.618.7
P/CFO7.1-32.86.010.014.510.0
Total Yield0.3%9.2%2.4%8.4%9.0%4.9%6.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.4%0.3%0.0%1.2%0.8%0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.6%-0.4%6.2%3.6%3.9%3.6%
D/E0.10.00.00.10.10.00.0
Net D/E-0.00.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0

Returns

TRXBFNVFSMNEMAEMMedian
NameTRX Gold Barrick .Franco-N.Fortuna .Newmont Agnico E. 
1M Rtn23.0%23.0%7.8%16.2%10.2%4.3%13.2%
3M Rtn77.9%50.0%6.8%22.8%19.6%14.0%21.2%
6M Rtn115.6%103.1%14.8%41.7%63.2%37.6%52.4%
12M Rtn106.8%134.8%66.7%92.2%119.3%99.3%103.0%
3Y Rtn108.4%155.4%43.6%144.9%102.1%250.1%126.6%
1M Excs Rtn23.0%23.1%7.8%16.2%10.2%4.4%13.2%
3M Excs Rtn75.0%44.0%1.2%20.0%14.7%8.9%17.4%
6M Excs Rtn100.9%88.4%0.1%27.0%48.5%22.8%37.7%
12M Excs Rtn90.5%122.9%53.2%86.2%103.8%89.4%89.9%
3Y Excs Rtn31.6%109.7%-22.8%103.2%49.2%204.6%76.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Mineral exploration and development3815   
Total3815   


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Mineral exploration and development  573841
Total  573841


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,086,627
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-12.4%
Average Daily Volume1,168,799
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.79
Basic Shares Quantity293,920,641
Short % of Basic Shares0.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
531202571520256-K 5/31/2025
228202541420256-K 2/28/2025
1130202411420256-K 11/30/2024
83120241129202440-F 8/31/2024
531202471520246-K 5/31/2024
229202441220246-K 2/29/2024
1130202311620246-K 11/30/2023
83120231129202340-F 8/31/2023
531202371420236-K 5/31/2023
228202341320236-K 2/28/2023
1130202211720236-K 11/30/2022
83120221129202240-F 8/31/2022
531202271520226-K 5/31/2022
228202241420226-K 2/28/2022
1130202111420226-K 11/30/2021
83120211203202120-F 8/31/2021