Tearsheet

Tempest Therapeutics (TPST)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.28 | Market Cap: $12.5 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Tempest Therapeutics (TPST)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.28
Market Cap: $12.5 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -143%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -158%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Oncology Treatments, Show more.
  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -43 Mil
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -171%
3   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 1336%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Oncology Treatments, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -143%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -158%
3 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -43 Mil
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -171%
6 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 1336%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TPST Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the significant stock movement for Tempest Therapeutics (TPST) between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:

1. Significant Shareholder Dilution from All-Stock Acquisition: Tempest Therapeutics announced an all-stock acquisition of Factor Bioscience's CAR-T programs in November 2025. This deal involved issuing approximately 8.27 million new shares to Factor, representing about 65% of the company's total outstanding stock, leading to substantial dilution for existing shareholders and causing the stock to plummet.

2. Strategic Pivot to Capital-Intensive Cell Therapy: The acquisition of Factor Bioscience's CAR-T programs marked a significant strategic shift for Tempest Therapeutics, moving its focus from small-molecule assets to a more capital-intensive cell therapy model. This change in strategic direction contributed to investor uncertainty regarding future operational costs and success.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TPST Return-68%147%-78%283%-81%-72%-97%
Peers Return2%-1%6%8%-0%2%17%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TPST Win Rate42%42%33%33%25%50% 
Peers Win Rate13%8%13%12%10%90% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TPST Max Drawdown-79%-57%-78%-80%-84%-95% 
Peers Max Drawdown-2%-5%0%-0%-1%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTPSTS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-99.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven10417.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-85.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven584.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven447 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-72.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven263.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven678 days120 days

Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN


In The Past

Tempest Therapeutics's stock fell -99.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/12/2021. A -99.0% loss requires a 10417.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Tempest Therapeutics (TPST)

Better Bets than Tempest Therapeutics (TPST)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TPST. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
10.0%10.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-7.7%-7.7%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.9%6.9%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.9%8.9%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Tempest Therapeutics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TPSTVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameTempest .Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Price3.27463.132.541.0711.0721.227.17
Mkt Cap0.0118.4----59.2
Rev LTM011,7230-0100
Op Inc LTM-43-92-5--93-70-70
FCF LTM-373,337-6--60-64-37
FCF 3Y Avg-312,064-10----10
CFO LTM-373,718-6--60-64-37
CFO 3Y Avg-312,419-10----10

Growth & Margins

TPSTVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameTempest .Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Rev Chg LTM-10.3%----10.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.5%----10.5%
Rev Chg Q-11.0%----11.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.7%----2.7%
Op Mgn LTM--0.8%----700.7%-350.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-26.2%----26.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%----1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-31.7%----635.6%-302.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-23.1%----23.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-28.5%----636.5%-304.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.8%----19.8%

Valuation

TPSTVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameTempest .Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Cap0.0118.4----59.2
P/S-8.5----8.5
P/EBIT-0.622.4----10.9
P/E-0.627.2----13.3
P/CFO-0.726.9----13.1
Total Yield-166.7%3.7%-----81.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1,020.7%2.3%-----509.2%
D/E0.30.0----0.2
Net D/E-0.2-0.0-----0.1

Returns

TPSTVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameTempest .Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
1M Rtn-67.4%8.7%---9.9%--9.9%
3M Rtn-68.9%16.8%--12.5%-12.5%
6M Rtn-52.6%3.9%-----24.3%
12M Rtn-71.2%1.3%-----34.9%
3Y Rtn-85.1%44.1%-----20.5%
1M Excs Rtn-67.3%8.7%---9.9%--9.9%
3M Excs Rtn-72.7%11.3%--4.5%-4.5%
6M Excs Rtn-67.3%-10.8%-----39.1%
12M Excs Rtn-87.1%-14.6%-----50.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-158.1%-25.9%-----92.0%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity153,644
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-1.6%
Average Daily Volume37,529
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.09
Basic Shares Quantity3,802,956
Short % of Basic Shares4.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024327202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023319202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022322202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022815202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022513202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021329202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211110202110-Q 9/30/2021