Universal (UVV)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $52.28 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Tobacco
Universal (UVV)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $52.28Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Tobacco
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 5.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.6%, FCF Yield is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 79% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, Dividend Yield is 5.8%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.6%, FCF Yield is 11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Nutritional Supplements, Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 79% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
UVV Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Universal Corporation (UVV) stock experienced an approximate decline of 4.2%. Several factors contributed to this movement:
1. Anticipated Tobacco Oversupply Concerns. Universal Corporation's fiscal year 2026 Q1 earnings call on August 7, 2025, and subsequent reports, indicated an expected oversupply of flue-cured and burley tobacco by year-end. This persistent risk in its primary tobacco operations likely fueled investor apprehension regarding potential margin pressure, despite management expressing confidence in handling shifting market dynamics.
2. Mixed Fiscal Year 2026 Second Quarter Earnings. While Universal Corporation reported improved second-quarter and first-half fiscal 2026 results on November 5, 2025, with increased sales and net income that beat analyst estimates for EPS and revenue, the operating income for the quarter was slightly lower than the previous year. This mixed performance, coupled with a reported "sell signal from a pivot top point" on November 6, 2025, leading to a subsequent drop of 3.86%, suggests that some investors reacted negatively to underlying operational details or market sentiment, despite the positive headline figures.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UVV Return | -9% | 20% | 2% | 36% | -13% | 3% | 34% |
| Peers Return | 8% | 10% | -5% | 11% | 27% | 13% | 80% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UVV Win Rate | 42% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 40% | 38% | 54% | 57% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UVV Max Drawdown | -31% | -5% | -15% | -10% | -30% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -6% | -16% | -7% | -22% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PM, MO, TPB, UVV, ISPR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UVV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 438 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 360 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -43.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 159.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2871 days | 1480 days |
Compare to PM, MO, TPB, UVV, ISPR
In The Past
Universal's stock fell -30.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/1/2022. A -30.9% loss requires a 44.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| How Low Can Universal Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| Time To Buy Universal Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Why Universal Stock Moved: UVV Stock Has Gained 22% Since 2021 Fiscal End, Primarily Due To Favorable Change In Revenues | |||
| Universal (UVV) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| UVV Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Better Bet Than Altria Stock: Pay Less To Get More From UVV | August 8th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to UVV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.1% | -2.1% | -2.1% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Universal
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 58.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| Rev LTM | 2,987 |
| Op Inc LTM | 249 |
| FCF LTM | 157 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 79 |
| CFO LTM | 202 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 139 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.8 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| P/EBIT | 9.5 |
| P/E | 12.7 |
| P/CFO | 12.5 |
| Total Yield | 6.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 61.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -1.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobacco Operations | 2,439 | 2,258 | 1,836 | 1,842 | 1,887 |
| Ingredients Operations | 310 | 312 | 268 | 142 | 23 |
| Total | 2,749 | 2,570 | 2,104 | 1,983 | 1,910 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobacco Operations | 222 | 173 | 158 | 169 | 147 |
| Ingredients Operations | 4 | 11 | 17 | 0 | -9 |
| Equity in pretax earnings (loss) of unconsolidated affiliates | -1 | -2 | -6 | -3 | -4 |
| Restructuring and impairment costs | -4 | 0 | -10 | -23 | -8 |
| Other income | 0 | 3 | 4 | ||
| Total | 222 | 181 | 160 | 148 | 126 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobacco Operations | 2,452 | 2,165 | 2,110 | 2,002 | 1,986 |
| Ingredients Operations | 485 | 475 | 476 | 340 | 135 |
| Total | 2,937 | 2,639 | 2,586 | 2,342 | 2,121 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5302025 | 10-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 4212025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 4212025 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5292024 | 10-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2072024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5252023 | 10-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2082023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5272022 | 10-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2022022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |