TON Strategy (TONX)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $3.0 | Market Cap: $3.0 MilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
TON Strategy (TONX)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $3.0Market Cap: $3.0 MilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -173% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -12 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1301% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1321% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -979%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1027% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -152% | |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 85% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -173% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1321% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -12 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1301% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -979%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1027% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -152% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 85% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TONX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. TON Strategy reported a significant net income of $84.7 million for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, a substantial improvement from a net loss in the prior year. This turnaround was largely attributed to a $120.4 million net gain on crypto assets and the successful initiation of its TON Treasury Strategy in August 2025, which involved acquiring Toncoin ($TON) using proceeds from a $558 million private placement. Revenue also saw a notable increase to $3.6 million, including $707,000 from new staking activities.
2. The company launched a $250 million stock buyback program and began staking a significant portion of its Toncoin reserves. TON Strategy authorized the repurchase of up to $250 million in stock and has been actively buying back shares below its treasury asset value per share. Simultaneously, the company initiated staking 82% of its Toncoin reserves by September 29, 2025, with an estimated potential to generate approximately $24 million in annualized staking revenues, intended to fund future share repurchases.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TONX Return | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Return | 13% | -2% | -7% | 5% | 55% | 897% | 1587% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TONX Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 13% | 10% | 9% | 30% | 44% | 36% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TONX Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -5% | -4% | -8% | -15% | -8% | -51% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADSK, HIT, BMR, BTTC, CCC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
TONX has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 278 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1183 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Would You Still Hold TON Strategy Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TONX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.3% | 8.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.7% | 14.7% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.3% | 8.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.7% | 14.7% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.9% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for TON Strategy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 3.12 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.0 |
| Rev LTM | 31 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1 |
| FCF LTM | 127 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 216 |
| CFO LTM | 156 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 271 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 35.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 54.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.0 |
| P/S | 8.6 |
| P/EBIT | 37.2 |
| P/E | 22.0 |
| P/CFO | 29.9 |
| Total Yield | 0.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -39.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -20.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -19.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 56.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -45.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -35.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -16.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARKET.live | 0 | ||||
| Corporate | 0 | ||||
| Go Fund Yourself | 0 | ||||
| Single Segment | 0 | ||||
| Non-digital revenue | 2 | ||||
| Other digital revenue | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) recurring subscription revenue | 7 | 5 | 3 | ||
| Design, printing, fulfillment, and shipping | 3 | ||||
| Design, printing, and fulfillment | 4 | ||||
| Shipping | 1 | ||||
| Total | 0 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Go Fund Yourself | 0 | ||||
| MARKET.live | -5 | ||||
| Corporate | -9 | ||||
| Total | -14 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/12/2025 | 14.3% | -2.2% | |
| 12/15/2023 | |||
| 11/18/2022 | |||
| 8/18/2022 | |||
| 4/1/2022 | |||
| 11/17/2021 | |||
| 8/18/2021 | |||
| 4/1/2021 | |||
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 14.3% | ||
| Median Negative | -2.2% | ||
| Max Positive | 14.3% | ||
| Max Negative | -2.2% | ||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12312024 | 3252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4012024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5222023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8152022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3312022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
| 6302021 | 8162021 | 10-Q 6/30/2021 |
| 3312021 | 5132021 | 10-Q 3/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |