CareDx (CDNA)
Market Price (5/13/2026): $21.41 | Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
CareDx (CDNA)
Market Price (5/13/2026): $21.41Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.9% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.5% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -15 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.7% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0% Key risksCDNA key risks include [1] adverse Medicare reimbursement changes negatively impacting its core testing business, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -15% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.9% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.5% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -15 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3.7% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0% |
| Key risksCDNA key risks include [1] adverse Medicare reimbursement changes negatively impacting its core testing business, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Strong Q1 2026 Financial Performance and Raised Guidance. CareDx reported robust first-quarter 2026 financial results, with revenue increasing by 39% year-over-year to $118 million and a return to GAAP net income of $3 million, compared to a GAAP net loss of $10 million in the prior-year quarter. Diluted non-GAAP net income per share reached $0.34, significantly surpassing the estimated $0.11. The company's adjusted EBITDA surged to $19 million, up from $5 million in Q1 2025. Following these strong results, CareDx raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $447 million to $465 million and its adjusted EBITDA guidance to $43 million to $57 million, indicating a positive outlook for the year.
2. Strategic Divestiture and Acquisition to Focus Core Business. CareDx announced a definitive agreement to divest its Lab Products business for $170 million in cash, aiming to simplify operations and sharpen its focus on core precision testing services and digital solutions. Concurrently, the company announced the acquisition of Naveris for an upfront payment of $160 million plus potential milestones, expanding its portfolio into the viral-mediated cancer minimal residual disease (MRD) surveillance testing market. These strategic portfolio realignments are intended to drive future growth in high-value areas.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 4.1% change in CDNA stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.55 | 21.40 | 4.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 358 | 413 | 15.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 3.0 | 2.7 | -12.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 53 | 51 | 2.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 4.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CDNA | 4.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 33.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | -5.4% | 6.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 42.7% change in CDNA stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.1% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.00 | 21.40 | 42.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 341 | 413 | 21.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.4 | 2.7 | 10.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 54 | 51 | 6.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 42.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CDNA | 42.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 31.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | 2.0% | 12.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.8% change in CDNA stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 16.88 | 21.40 | 26.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 346 | 413 | 19.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.7 | 2.7 | -1.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 55 | 51 | 8.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.8% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CDNA | 26.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 23.3% |
| Sector (XLV) | 5.7% | 23.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 164.5% change in CDNA stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 97.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.09 | 21.40 | 164.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 322 | 413 | 28.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.3 | 2.7 | 97.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 54 | 51 | 4.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 164.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CDNA | 164.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 29.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 14.8% | 26.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CDNA Return | -37% | -75% | 5% | 78% | -12% | 14% | -70% |
| Peers Return | 4% | -15% | -8% | -24% | 38% | -17% | -28% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CDNA Win Rate | 50% | 17% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 56% | 53% | 47% | 42% | 42% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CDNA Max Drawdown | -43% | -76% | -57% | -37% | -46% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -41% | -42% | -35% | -16% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: A, ATEC, CERS, ALMR, POAS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/12/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CDNA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -49.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 362 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -50.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 47 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.5% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -79.0% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 377.3% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 152 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 62 days |
In The Past
CareDx's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | CDNA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 124.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -49.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 97.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 362 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -50.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 47 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.5% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -79.0% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 377.3% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 152 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -58.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 142.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 946 days | 15 days |
In The Past
CareDx's stock fell 0.0% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About CareDx (CDNA)
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Exact Sciences for transplant patient monitoring.
Epic Systems for transplant centers, combined with crucial diagnostic tests.
AI Analysis | Feedback
CareDx (CDNA) offers the following major products and services:
- AlloSure Kidney: A donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients.
- AlloMap Heart: A gene expression solution for heart transplant patients.
- AlloSure Heart: A donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for heart transplant patients.
- AlloSure Lung: A donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for lung transplant patients.
- TruSight HLA: A next-generation sequencing (NGS) based high-resolution human leukocyte antigen (HLA) typing solution.
- Olerup SSP: A solution used to type human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles based on sequence specific primer technology.
- QTYPE: A technology that enables precision in human leukocyte antigen (HLA) typing.
- Ottr: A transplant patient management software.
- AlloSeq Tx: A high-resolution human leukocyte antigen (HLA) typing solution.
- AlloSeq cfDNA: A surveillance solution to measure donor-derived cell-free DNA in blood.
- AlloSeq HCT: A solution for chimerism testing for stem cell transplant recipients.
- XynQAPI: Transplant quality tracking and waitlist management solutions.
- AlloCare: A mobile application that offers a patient-centric resource for transplant recipients.
- iBox: Software for the predictive analysis of post-transplantation kidney allograft loss, commercialized via a license agreement.
AI Analysis | Feedback
CareDx (CDNA) primarily sells its diagnostic solutions and software platforms to other companies and organizations within the healthcare sector, rather than directly to individual patients. Based on the company description, its major customers can be categorized as:- Transplant Centers and Hospitals: These institutions are the primary users of CareDx's diagnostic solutions for transplant patients (such as AlloSure, AlloMap, and HLA typing products) and its transplant patient management software (like Ottr and XynQAPI).
- Clinical Laboratories: Specialized clinical laboratories utilize CareDx's high-resolution HLA typing, chimerism testing, and surveillance solutions (e.g., TruSight HLA, AlloSeq cfDNA, AlloSeq HCT) to perform diagnostic tests.
- Third-Party Distributors and Sub-Distributors: CareDx uses a network of distributors to reach its end customers (hospitals, transplant centers, and labs) globally. These distributors are direct customers of CareDx.
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- Illumina, Inc. (Symbol: ILMN)
- Cibiltech SAS
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John W. Hanna, President and Chief Executive Officer
John W. Hanna assumed the role of President and Chief Executive Officer and became a member of the board of directors on April 15, 2024. He brings over two decades of executive leadership experience at the intersection of new technology development and revenue growth within the molecular diagnostics and life sciences tools industries. Prior to joining CareDx, Mr. Hanna served as Chief Executive Officer of Apton Biosystems, Inc., where he spearheaded the development of a high-throughput next-generation sequencing (NGS) platform. Apton Biosystems, Inc. was subsequently acquired by Pacific Biosciences of California, Inc. His previous experience also includes leadership roles at Veracyte, Inc., Humana, and IBM.
Keith Kennedy, Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer
Keith Kennedy was appointed Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer, effective February 26, 2026. He has served as CareDx's Chief Operating Officer since September 2024. Mr. Kennedy brings over 20 years of experience and executive leadership in healthcare, including global diagnostics and biopharma services. Before joining CareDx, he served as CFO at PharmaLogic Holdings Corp from April 2022 to September 2024. At Veracyte, he held various roles from December 2016 to May 2021, including Chief Operating Officer, Chief Financial Officer, and Secretary. He also held key executive positions at MCG Capital Corporation and GE Capital and served as an Officer in the U.S. Air Force. Mr. Kennedy is a Chartered Financial Analyst and Certified Public Accountant.
Marica Grskovic, Ph.D., Chief Strategy Officer
Marica Grskovic, Ph.D., was appointed Chief Strategy Officer in December 2024. Dr. Grskovic has been with CareDx since 2012 and has played a key role in leading the development of the AlloSure® product. Her background includes strong experience in operations, research and development, and pharmaceutical partnering, and she holds a Doctorate in Molecular Biology and Biochemistry.
Jessica Meng, Chief Commercial Officer
Jessica Meng was appointed Chief Commercial Officer in December 2024. She brings commercial strategy experience from her previous roles at DELFI Diagnostics and Myovant Sciences, as well as leadership positions at Veracyte and Genentech. Ms. Meng holds a dual Bachelor of Science in Finance and a Bachelor of Arts in International Relations from the University of Pennsylvania, along with an MBA from The Wharton School.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to CareDx (CDNA) largely stem from regulatory scrutiny, evolving reimbursement policies, and challenges in achieving consistent profitability amidst a competitive landscape.
- Regulatory Investigations and Litigation: CareDx faces ongoing federal investigations by the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) into its business practices, particularly concerning kidney testing and phlebotomy services. These investigations also include allegations of improper and illegal schemes to inflate revenue. The company has also been subject to securities class action lawsuits alleging failure to disclose material information. Such legal and regulatory challenges can lead to significant financial liabilities, reputational damage, and impact the company's market position.
- Regulatory Risks and Reimbursement Changes: A significant risk for CareDx involves changes in Medicare and other insurance coverage and reimbursement policies for its diagnostic products and services. Specifically, a draft local coverage determination (LCD) policy for molecular allograft testing could materially impact the company's annual revenue. Shifts in reimbursement policies present continuous risks around future revenue streams and profitability.
- Lack of Consistent Profitability and Intensifying Competition: Despite its specialized product portfolio and revenue growth, CareDx has historically struggled to achieve consistent operating profitability. The company operates in a fragmented and increasingly competitive market, with new diagnostic tests and AI-driven solutions emerging. This intensifying competition, coupled with the need for continuous innovation, poses a risk to market share, pricing power, and long-term earnings momentum.
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```htmlNatera, Inc. (NTRA) poses a clear emerging threat through its Prospera donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) test. Prospera directly competes with CareDx's AlloSure suite of products (AlloSure Kidney, AlloSure Heart, AlloSure Lung), which are central to CareDx's business in post-transplant surveillance. Natera is a well-capitalized and established diagnostics company actively expanding its market share in the transplant diagnostics space, directly challenging CareDx's leadership in this critical segment.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
CareDx, Inc. (CDNA) operates in several key areas within the transplant diagnostics and patient management markets. The addressable markets for its main products and services include:
Transplant Diagnostics (Overall Market)
The global transplant diagnostics market was valued at approximately USD 6.39 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 12.15 billion by 2033, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.45% from 2025 to 2033. North America held the largest global revenue share, accounting for 32.52% of the market in 2024. Within North America, the U.S. transplant diagnostics market was valued at USD 1.41 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 2.28 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 5.46% over the forecast period 2024-2032.
The post-transplantation monitoring segment of the global transplant diagnostics market, which is highly relevant for CareDx's AlloSure and AlloMap products, held a substantial market share in 2022, valued at around USD 2.1 billion.
Donor-Derived Cell-Free DNA (dd-cfDNA) Testing (AlloSure Kidney, AlloSure Heart, AlloSure Lung, AlloSeq cfDNA)
The global donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) testing market was valued at USD 605 million in 2024 and is projected to expand to USD 2,120 million by 2033, demonstrating a robust CAGR of 15.2% from 2025 to 2033. North America currently dominates this market. For kidney transplant dd-cfDNA testing, the addressable market for regulated transplant rejection testing is estimated at roughly $2 billion-plus (global).
Specifically for CareDx's products in the U.S.:
- The total annual market for AlloSure Kidney is estimated at approximately $437.5 million.
- Post-heart transplant testing, which includes AlloMap Heart and AlloSure Heart, could be worth up to $252 million annually.
CareDx's tests for kidney, heart, and lung operate within a broader total addressable market for organ transplants in the United States, which is estimated at $20 billion.
HLA Typing (TruSight HLA, Olerup SSP, QTYPE, AlloSeq Tx)
The global HLA typing market size was estimated at USD 1.62 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 2.69 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 6.58% during the forecast period of 2025-2032. North America accounted for the largest share of the HLA typing market in 2024. The U.S. HLA typing market size was valued at USD 0.64 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 0.98 billion by 2032.
Transplant Patient Management Software (Ottr, XynQAPI, AlloCare)
The U.S. organ donation and transplant software market was estimated at USD 57.16 million in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 90.04 million by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.9% from 2026 to 2033. This market growth is driven by increasing organ transplant volumes, the prevalence of end-stage organ diseases, and regulatory requirements for standardized data reporting.
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CareDx, Inc. (CDNA) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market dynamics:
- Increased Testing Services Volume: CareDx anticipates continued growth in the volume of its core testing services, including AlloSure Kidney, AlloMap Heart, AlloSure Heart, and AlloSure Lung. This growth is expected to be fueled by increased adoption of surveillance protocols and expanded "for-cause" utilization of these tests at transplant centers. For example, kidney testing has shown strong growth, supported by both increased surveillance protocol adoption and expanded for-cause use of AlloSure Kidney at transplant centers. The company reported approximately 53,000 tests in Q4 2025, up 17% year-over-year. Management expects testing services volume to grow in the mid-teens year-over-year in 2025.
- Expansion of Payer Coverage and Average Selling Price (ASP) Improvement: CareDx is focused on expanding insurance coverage for its diagnostic solutions, which directly contributes to increased revenue per test (ASP). In 2024, the company added or expanded coverage for 28 million lives for AlloMap Heart and 36 million new commercial covered lives for AlloSure, with continued efforts to drive ASP in future quarters through improved coverage and disciplined revenue cycle management. Increased average revenue-per-test was a factor in the improved non-GAAP gross margin in Q3 2025.
- Growth in Patient and Digital Solutions: The Patient and Digital Solutions segment, which includes transplant patient management software (Ottr, XynQAPI), transplant pharmacy services, and remote patient monitoring, is a significant growth driver. This segment has consistently shown strong year-over-year growth, with a 47% increase in Q4 2025 compared to the previous year and a 31% increase for the full year 2025.
- Introduction of New Products and Pipeline Advancement: CareDx's pipeline advancements and the potential launch of new diagnostic solutions are expected to drive future revenue. A notable example is AlloHeme, for which ACROBAT data demonstrated earlier detection of relapse, with plans for CLIA readiness in 2026 and a commercial launch in early 2027. The company emphasizes pipeline advancement as a key growth driver to sustain product innovation.
- Enhanced Go-to-Market Strategy and Sales Force Expansion: The company is leveraging its go-to-market strategy to provide comprehensive solutions to transplant centers across the care continuum. CareDx has notably expanded its sales force by approximately 50%, which is anticipated to further enhance volume growth and strengthen its competitive position.
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CareDx (CDNA) has undertaken several capital allocation decisions over the last 3-5 years across various categories.Share Repurchases
- CareDx authorized a common stock repurchase program of up to $50 million in December 2022, spanning a period of up to 24 months.
- By June 2025, the company completed a $50 million repurchase of its common stock, representing approximately 5% of outstanding shares.
- For the full year 2025, CareDx repurchased $88 million of stock. Following the completion of this program, a new share repurchase program of up to $50 million was authorized in June 2025 for the subsequent 24 months.
Outbound Investments
- CareDx has made a total of 8 acquisitions, with the most active period being 2021, when four acquisitions were completed.
- The most recent acquisition was MediGO in July 2023, a software provider specializing in organ transplantation management.
- The company's strategy includes continued investment in strategic acquisitions to advance its goals and deliver long-term shareholder value.
Capital Expenditures
- CareDx invested $3.6 million in capital expenditures during Q3 2021, primarily directed towards funding long-term assets and infrastructure.
- For 2026, the company plans strategic investments of approximately $10 million in enterprise systems, including Epic Enterprise LIMS, which are expected to contribute significantly to future growth.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 14.57 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| Rev LTM | 600 |
| Op Inc LTM | -9 |
| FCF LTM | 32 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2 |
| CFO LTM | 62 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 18.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 60.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 26.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -2.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -12.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -2.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| P/S | 2.5 |
| P/Op Inc | -48.2 |
| P/EBIT | -43.8 |
| P/E | -30.7 |
| P/CFO | 23.0 |
| Total Yield | -1.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -9.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -2.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -83.4% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $21.40 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/17/2014 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -4.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $18.92 | $17.07 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 13.1% | 25.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 72.3% | 72.8% |
| Downside Capture | 1.11 | 0.74 |
| Upside Capture | 203.57 | 141.31 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 28.2% | 23.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.30 | 1.67 | 1.64 | 1.71 | 1.39 | 1.49 |
| Up Beta | -0.61 | -0.26 | 0.27 | 0.50 | 1.33 | 1.31 |
| Down Beta | -0.25 | 1.60 | 1.45 | 0.47 | 1.06 | 0.89 |
| Up Capture | 320% | 293% | 250% | 457% | 152% | 1142% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 30 | 63 | 131 | 383 |
| Down Capture | 729% | 206% | 192% | 176% | 135% | 112% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 61 | 117 | 359 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CDNA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDNA | 47.4% | 72.9% | 0.87 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 11.9% | 15.5% | 0.53 | 20.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 28.3% | 12.5% | 1.80 | 23.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 41.3% | 26.9% | 1.26 | 11.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 47.5% | 18.0% | 2.10 | 0.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.8% | 13.5% | 0.65 | 19.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -21.0% | 41.7% | -0.46 | 16.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CDNA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDNA | -21.0% | 77.6% | 0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 5.1% | 14.6% | 0.17 | 28.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 34.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.0% | 17.9% | 0.95 | 10.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.4% | 19.1% | 0.57 | 5.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.9% | 18.8% | 0.11 | 32.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.2% | 55.9% | 0.34 | 17.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CDNA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDNA | 18.0% | 78.4% | 0.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 9.5% | 16.5% | 0.46 | 28.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 33.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 7.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 8.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 29.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.2% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 11.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/24/2026 | -4.1% | -2.3% | -6.1% |
| 11/4/2025 | 13.8% | 15.6% | 27.6% |
| 8/6/2025 | -7.9% | -7.4% | 5.5% |
| 4/30/2025 | -10.7% | -12.5% | 0.7% |
| 1/13/2025 | 6.1% | -9.3% | -3.5% |
| 10/15/2024 | -15.8% | -25.0% | -25.5% |
| 7/31/2024 | 18.0% | 21.5% | 54.6% |
| 5/9/2024 | 34.1% | 33.6% | 34.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 8 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 15 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 13.9% | 18.1% | 11.2% |
| Median Negative | -7.9% | -12.5% | -24.6% |
| Max Positive | 34.1% | 42.8% | 55.0% |
| Max Negative | -27.5% | -31.6% | -40.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 447.00 Mil | 456.00 Mil | 465.00 Mil | 5.6% | Raised | Guidance: 432.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 43.00 Mil | 50.00 Mil | 57.00 Mil | 33.3% | Raised | Guidance: 37.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 420.00 Mil | 432.00 Mil | 444.00 Mil | 15.5% | Higher New | Actual: 374.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 30.00 Mil | 37.50 Mil | 45.00 Mil | 1.4% | Higher New | Actual: 37.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novack, Jeffrey Adam | Secretary and General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 5062026 | 20.68 | 2,688 | 55,581 | 2,355,664 | Form |
| 2 | Hanna, John Walter JR | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 4202026 | 21.12 | 10,282 | 217,156 | 14,287,152 | Form |
| 3 | Novack, Jeffrey Adam | Secretary and General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 2042026 | 20.56 | 4,441 | 91,286 | 2,576,895 | Form |
| 4 | Hanna, John Walter JR | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 1232026 | 21.16 | 19,280 | 408,023 | 12,642,882 | Form |
| 5 | Hanna, John Walter JR | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 1232026 | 21.00 | 200 | 4,200 | 12,950,385 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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