CareDx (CDNA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.86 | Market Cap: $990.3 MilSector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
CareDx (CDNA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.86Market Cap: $990.3 MilSector: Health CareIndustry: Life Sciences Tools & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -21% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -29 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.1% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -21% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -29 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.1% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CDNA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting why CareDx (CDNA) stock moved by approximately 38% from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results: CareDx reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The company announced revenue of $100.1 million, exceeding the forecasted $95.32 million, and achieved an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.28, a substantial improvement over the expected -$0.08.
2. Raised Full-Year 2025 Guidance: Following its strong Q3 performance, CareDx raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $372-$376 million, up from the previous $367-$373 million. The company also increased its adjusted EBITDA guidance to $35-$39 million, reflecting confidence in its continued growth trajectory.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CDNA Return | 236% | -37% | -75% | 5% | 78% | -19% | -19% |
| Peers Return | 52% | 3% | -11% | -6% | -18% | 41% | 52% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CDNA Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 17% | 50% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 40% | 35% | 31% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CDNA Max Drawdown | -35% | -43% | -76% | -57% | -37% | -46% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -15% | -31% | -31% | -27% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: A, ATEC, CERS, AVRT, BLLN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CDNA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -94.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1851.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -50.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 102.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 47 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -71.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 256.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 119 days | 120 days |
Compare to A, ATEC, CERS, AVRT, BLLN
In The Past
CareDx's stock fell -94.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/20/2021. A -94.9% loss requires a 1851.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CDNA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for CareDx
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 21.23 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| Rev LTM | 543 |
| Op Inc LTM | -19 |
| FCF LTM | 18 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -4 |
| CFO LTM | 39 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -6.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -16.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -3.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/EBIT | -22.7 |
| P/E | -1.7 |
| P/CFO | 42.6 |
| Total Yield | -0.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 18.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 40.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 34.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 20.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 18.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 30.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 19.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -46.6% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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