Tearsheet

CareDx (CDNA)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.86 | Market Cap: $990.3 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services

CareDx (CDNA)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.86
Market Cap: $990.3 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Life Sciences Tools & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -21%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -29 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.1%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
 
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.1%
1 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Biotechnology & Genomics, Precision Medicine, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Advanced Diagnostics, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -21%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
6 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -29 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -8.1%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CDNA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points highlighting why CareDx (CDNA) stock moved by approximately 38% from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results: CareDx reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The company announced revenue of $100.1 million, exceeding the forecasted $95.32 million, and achieved an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.28, a substantial improvement over the expected -$0.08.

2. Raised Full-Year 2025 Guidance: Following its strong Q3 performance, CareDx raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $372-$376 million, up from the previous $367-$373 million. The company also increased its adjusted EBITDA guidance to $35-$39 million, reflecting confidence in its continued growth trajectory.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CDNA Return236%-37%-75%5%78%-19%-19%
Peers Return52%3%-11%-6%-18%41%52%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CDNA Win Rate75%50%17%50%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate50%42%40%35%31%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CDNA Max Drawdown-35%-43%-76%-57%-37%-46% 
Peers Max Drawdown-31%-15%-31%-31%-27%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: A, ATEC, CERS, AVRT, BLLN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCDNAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-94.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1851.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-50.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven102.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven47 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-71.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven256.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven119 days120 days

Compare to A, ATEC, CERS, AVRT, BLLN


In The Past

CareDx's stock fell -94.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/20/2021. A -94.9% loss requires a 1851.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About CareDx (CDNA)

Better Bets than CareDx (CDNA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CDNA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for CareDx

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CDNAAATECCERSAVRTBLLNMedian
NameCareDx Agilent .Alphatec Cerus Avertix .BillionT. 
Mkt Price18.85149.2621.231.99-102.7621.23
Mkt Cap1.042.43.20.4--2.1
Rev LTM3586,788728199--543
Op Inc LTM-291,444-74-9---19
FCF LTM361,088-30--18
FCF 3Y Avg81,308-112-15---4
CFO LTM431,495354--39
CFO 3Y Avg161,662-36-12--2

Growth & Margins

CDNAAATECCERSAVRTBLLNMedian
NameCareDx Agilent .Alphatec Cerus Avertix .BillionT. 
Rev Chg LTM14.5%4.5%27.1%13.0%--13.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.3%0.8%31.8%8.3%--6.3%
Rev Chg Q20.7%10.1%30.4%14.5%--17.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM5.0%2.4%6.7%3.5%--4.3%
Op Mgn LTM-8.1%21.3%-10.1%-4.8%---6.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-21.1%21.5%-21.8%-11.9%---16.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM4.4%-0.1%3.8%1.3%--2.6%
CFO/Rev LTM11.9%22.0%4.8%1.8%--8.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.5%24.6%-7.6%-7.5%---1.5%
FCF/Rev LTM10.2%16.0%-0.5%0.1%--5.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.0%19.4%-21.7%-9.7%---3.9%

Valuation

CDNAAATECCERSAVRTBLLNMedian
NameCareDx Agilent .Alphatec Cerus Avertix .BillionT. 
Mkt Cap1.042.43.20.4--2.1
P/S2.14.93.01.5--2.6
P/EBIT-26.222.2-19.2-42.1---22.7
P/E10.827.5-14.2-19.1---1.7
P/CFO17.922.462.885.5--42.6
Total Yield9.2%4.5%-7.0%-5.2%---0.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.8%0.0%0.0%--0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.4%3.7%-11.2%-5.1%---2.4%
D/E0.00.10.30.3--0.2
Net D/E-0.20.10.20.1--0.1

Returns

CDNAAATECCERSAVRTBLLNMedian
NameCareDx Agilent .Alphatec Cerus Avertix .BillionT. 
1M Rtn27.6%3.2%10.1%30.9%--18.8%
3M Rtn48.1%19.4%33.5%51.9%--40.8%
6M Rtn-2.3%30.4%72.9%38.2%--34.3%
12M Rtn-24.5%8.0%112.3%12.4%--10.2%
3Y Rtn42.6%-2.0%106.7%-52.0%--20.3%
1M Excs Rtn27.7%3.2%10.1%31.0%--18.9%
3M Excs Rtn38.5%11.1%22.9%44.3%--30.7%
6M Excs Rtn-17.1%15.7%58.2%23.5%--19.6%
12M Excs Rtn-36.7%-4.5%89.0%-6.0%---5.2%
3Y Excs Rtn-20.7%-72.6%50.7%-119.0%---46.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment280    
Patient and digital revenue 291094
Product revenue 29271918
Testing services revenue 264259164105
Total280322296192127


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,961,045
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120256.0%
Average Daily Volume1,503,147
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.63
Basic Shares Quantity52,507,582
Short % of Basic Shares13.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021