Inspire Medical Systems (INSP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $135.28 | Market Cap: $4.0 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
Inspire Medical Systems (INSP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $135.28Market Cap: $4.0 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -113% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 47x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 49x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -56% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -56% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -57%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -113% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 47x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 49x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
INSP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested time period for the stock movement analysis, from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, falls entirely within the future from the current processing date. Analyzing historical stock performance and identifying key causal factors for a period that has not yet occurred is not possible. However, the search results provide some information about events occurring around and within this future period, as reported on December 3-4, 2025. This indicates that there are reports discussing events that *are said to have occurred* in the period leading up to or around the specified future date within the context of the search results. Specifically, there are discussions about events that *allegedly* occurred in August 2025. I will synthesize these provided events as they are presented in the search results, even though they are presented from the perspective of December 2025 looking back at earlier 2025 events. Here are key points related to Inspire Medical Systems (INSP) from the provided information: **1. Inspire V Launch Setbacks and Reduced Guidance:** Inspire Medical Systems faced significant issues with the launch of its Inspire V neurostimulation system. On August 4, 2025, the company disclosed that the Inspire V launch was experiencing an "elongated timeframe" due to factors such as many treatment centers not completing required training, contracting, and onboarding criteria. This led to a dramatic reduction in its 2025 earnings per share guidance by over 80%. **2. Stock Price Decline Following Launch News:** Following the announcement of the Inspire V launch setbacks on August 4, 2025, Inspire's stock price plummeted by more than 32%, dropping from $129.95 per share to $87.91 per share by August 5, 2025. This translated to approximately $1.2 billion in market capitalization loss. **3. Securities Fraud Lawsuits:** Multiple securities class-action lawsuits were filed against Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. and its executives. These lawsuits allege that the company misled investors about its preparedness for the Inspire V launch, concealing issues such as poor demand, excess inventory of older devices, and failures in billing software updates that affected reimbursement. Investors have until January 5, 2026, to seek to be appointed lead plaintiff. **4. Positive Momentum from Medicare Reimbursement Boost:** Despite earlier challenges, Inspire Medical Systems experienced a positive stock movement in late November/early December 2025, with shares trading higher (e.g., 7% higher on December 3, 2025, and jumping 5.3% on December 2, 2025) after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) finalized a significant increase in reimbursement rates for Inspire's sleep apnea procedures, effective in 2026. This 50% increase in Medicare reimbursement, from approximately $30,000 to $45,000 per procedure, is expected to boost procedure adoption and address margin pressure. **5. Analyst Rating Changes and Price Target Adjustments:** Analysts adjusted their ratings and price targets for INSP shares during this period. For example, in October and November 2025, some analysts decreased target prices, while others, like Wells Fargo & Company, upgraded the stock from "equal weight" to "overweight" in early November. Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $130 from $105 in December 2025. Following the Medicare reimbursement news, Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to Outperform with a $180 price target.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| INSP Return | 153% | 22% | 9% | -19% | -9% | -28% | 80% |
| Peers Return | 48% | 7% | -18% | -29% | 48% | -12% | 20% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| INSP Win Rate | 83% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 10% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 56% | 44% | 52% | 48% | 50% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| INSP Max Drawdown | -44% | -12% | -36% | -50% | -38% | -61% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -22% | -43% | -48% | -18% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GMED, PEN, MASI, NVCR, DAVI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | INSP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 160.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -53.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 116.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 86 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 120 days |
Compare to GMED, PEN, MASI, NVCR, DAVI
In The Past
Inspire Medical Systems's stock fell -61.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/14/2023. A -61.6% loss requires a 160.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to INSP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.1% | 4.1% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -9.8% | -9.8% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.0% | 6.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.7% | 9.7% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.2% | 6.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Inspire Medical Systems
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 134.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.5 |
| Rev LTM | 1,334 |
| Op Inc LTM | 133 |
| FCF LTM | 153 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 93 |
| CFO LTM | 203 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 140 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.5 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| P/EBIT | 17.8 |
| P/E | 18.2 |
| P/CFO | 16.3 |
| Total Yield | 1.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 26.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -20.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | -5.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 26.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -33.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -75.5% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2102025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2092024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2152022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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