Tearsheet

Inspire Medical Systems (INSP)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $131.54 | Market Cap: $3.9 Bil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment

Inspire Medical Systems (INSP)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $131.54
Market Cap: $3.9 Bil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Health Care Equipment

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
 
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -56%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Show more.
  
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -56%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine, Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

INSP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Inspire Medical Systems (INSP) experienced a significant upward movement, with its stock increasing by approximately 43.64% in the month leading up to December 12, 2025. This rise reflects a notable recovery and positive market reaction to several key developments following an earlier stock drop around August 2025 related to concerns over the launch of its Inspire V system. Here are the key points contributing to the stock's appreciation: 1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance.

Inspire Medical Systems reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on November 3, 2025. The company announced revenues of $224.5 million, marking a 10.5% increase year-over-year, which surpassed analysts' expectations of $220.39 million. Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were $0.38, significantly beating the consensus estimate of -$0.15. 2. Upgraded Full-Year 2025 Earnings Per Share Guidance.

Following the strong third-quarter results, Inspire Medical Systems increased its diluted net income per share guidance for the full year 2025 to a range of $0.90 to $1.00, a substantial increase from its previous guidance of $0.40 to $0.50 per share. This upward revision in profitability outlook signals management's confidence in continued financial strength.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
INSP Return153%22%9%-19%-9%-26%85%
Peers Return
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
INSP Win Rate83%58%58%50%50%25% 
Peers Win Rate 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
INSP Max Drawdown-44%-12%-36%-50%-38%-61% 
Peers Max Drawdown 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GMED, PEN, MASI, NVCR, DAVI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventINSPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-61.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven160.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-53.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven116.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven86 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-35.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven53.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven63 days120 days

Compare to GMED, PEN, MASI, NVCR, DAVI


In The Past

Inspire Medical Systems's stock fell -61.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/14/2023. A -61.6% loss requires a 160.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Inspire Medical Systems (INSP)

Better Bets than Inspire Medical Systems (INSP)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to INSP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.1%-5.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.0%16.0%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-5.1%-5.1%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.0%9.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
2.3%2.3%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.0%16.0%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Inspire Medical Systems

Peers to compare with:

Financials

INSPGMEDPENMASINVCRDAVIMedian
NameInspire .Globus M.Penumbra Masimo NovoCure Davion H. 
Mkt Price130.6886.70312.02138.3413.32-130.68
Mkt Cap3.811.712.27.51.5-7.5
Rev LTM8832,7701,3342,182642-1,334
Op Inc LTM37434173133-177-133
FCF LTM99570153168-65-153
FCF 3Y Avg4833111193-78-93
CFO LTM134715203208-34-203
CFO 3Y Avg80444140147-45-140

Growth & Margins

INSPGMEDPENMASINVCRDAVIMedian
NameInspire .Globus M.Penumbra Masimo NovoCure Davion H. 
Rev Chg LTM16.8%11.7%14.6%38.5%11.2%-14.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg37.7%45.6%17.2%11.4%6.2%-17.2%
Rev Chg Q10.5%22.9%17.8%8.2%7.8%-10.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.5%5.5%4.2%1.3%1.9%-2.5%
Op Mgn LTM4.2%15.7%13.0%6.1%-27.5%-6.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-0.9%13.9%8.6%8.9%-33.2%-8.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%2.4%0.5%2.0%-0.1%-0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM15.1%25.8%15.2%9.5%-5.4%-15.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.1%19.7%11.6%8.1%-8.1%-10.1%
FCF/Rev LTM11.2%20.6%11.4%7.7%-10.1%-11.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.9%14.3%9.2%5.3%-13.8%-5.9%

Valuation

INSPGMEDPENMASINVCRDAVIMedian
NameInspire .Globus M.Penumbra Masimo NovoCure Davion H. 
Mkt Cap3.811.712.27.51.5-7.5
P/S2.52.87.43.72.3-2.8
P/EBIT46.917.852.9-46.7-11.4-17.8
P/E48.818.260.4-14.0-8.1-18.2
P/CFO16.310.848.738.3-41.9-16.3
Total Yield2.0%5.5%1.7%-7.1%-12.3%-1.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.8%4.2%1.3%1.1%-4.8%-1.3%
D/E0.00.00.00.10.6-0.0
Net D/E-0.1-0.0-0.00.0-0.2--0.0

Returns

INSPGMEDPENMASINVCRDAVIMedian
NameInspire .Globus M.Penumbra Masimo NovoCure Davion H. 
1M Rtn51.3%2.7%11.4%-8.5%17.7%-11.4%
3M Rtn63.2%47.6%14.4%-6.2%9.6%-14.4%
6M Rtn2.8%47.2%21.6%-14.2%-24.1%-2.8%
12M Rtn-30.4%5.2%27.1%-21.5%-60.1%--21.5%
3Y Rtn-48.9%19.8%39.4%-4.1%-82.1%--4.1%
1M Excs Rtn44.1%2.7%11.7%-7.3%17.6%-11.7%
3M Excs Rtn58.6%45.7%15.4%-8.3%1.5%-15.4%
6M Excs Rtn-11.5%33.0%7.4%-28.4%-38.3%--11.5%
12M Excs Rtn-44.1%-8.5%15.7%-33.9%-68.3%--33.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-116.6%-49.8%-31.7%-74.3%-155.9%--74.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment62540823311582
Total62540823311582


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,481,719
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-5.2%
Average Daily Volume1,923,965
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.81
Basic Shares Quantity29,332,376
Short % of Basic Shares11.9%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/3/202515.3%16.8%90.0%
8/4/2025-32.4%-38.7%-34.1%
5/5/20252.0%-1.4%-13.1%
1/13/2025-13.4%-12.2%-9.1%
11/4/20243.3%4.8%2.2%
7/29/20246.2%19.0%50.2%
5/7/2024-33.5%-35.4%-36.3%
2/6/2024-10.5%-16.7%-8.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive15139
# Negative91115
Median Positive6.8%5.6%23.4%
Median Negative-12.6%-16.7%-13.1%
Max Positive31.8%39.1%90.0%
Max Negative-33.5%-38.7%-36.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251103202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025804202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024210202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023209202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022210202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021215202210-K 12/31/2021