Inspire Medical Systems (INSP)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $131.54 | Market Cap: $3.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
Inspire Medical Systems (INSP)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $131.54Market Cap: $3.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -56% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -56% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Precision Medicine, Digital Health & Telemedicine, and Aging Population & Chronic Disease. Themes include Targeted Therapies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -69%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.1% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
INSP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Inspire Medical Systems (INSP) experienced a significant upward movement, with its stock increasing by approximately 43.64% in the month leading up to December 12, 2025. This rise reflects a notable recovery and positive market reaction to several key developments following an earlier stock drop around August 2025 related to concerns over the launch of its Inspire V system.
Here are the key points contributing to the stock's appreciation:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance.
Inspire Medical Systems reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on November 3, 2025. The company announced revenues of $224.5 million, marking a 10.5% increase year-over-year, which surpassed analysts' expectations of $220.39 million. Earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were $0.38, significantly beating the consensus estimate of -$0.15.
2. Upgraded Full-Year 2025 Earnings Per Share Guidance.
Following the strong third-quarter results, Inspire Medical Systems increased its diluted net income per share guidance for the full year 2025 to a range of $0.90 to $1.00, a substantial increase from its previous guidance of $0.40 to $0.50 per share. This upward revision in profitability outlook signals management's confidence in continued financial strength.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| INSP Return | 153% | 22% | 9% | -19% | -9% | -26% | 85% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| INSP Win Rate | 83% | 58% | 58% | 50% | 50% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| INSP Max Drawdown | -44% | -12% | -36% | -50% | -38% | -61% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GMED, PEN, MASI, NVCR, DAVI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | INSP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 160.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -53.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 116.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 86 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 63 days | 120 days |
Compare to GMED, PEN, MASI, NVCR, DAVI
In The Past
Inspire Medical Systems's stock fell -61.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/14/2023. A -61.6% loss requires a 160.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to INSP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.1% | -5.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.0% | 16.0% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11142025 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories International | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -3.7% |
| 11142025 | GDRX | GoodRx | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.1% | -5.1% | -11.8% |
| 11142025 | ASTH | Astrana Health | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.0% | 9.0% | -5.5% |
| 11142025 | SGRY | Surgery Partners | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.4% |
| 11072025 | TFX | Teleflex | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.0% | 16.0% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Inspire Medical Systems
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 130.68 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.5 |
| Rev LTM | 1,334 |
| Op Inc LTM | 133 |
| FCF LTM | 153 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 93 |
| CFO LTM | 203 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 140 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.5 |
| P/S | 2.8 |
| P/EBIT | 17.8 |
| P/E | 18.2 |
| P/CFO | 16.3 |
| Total Yield | 1.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -21.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -4.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 11.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 15.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -33.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -74.3% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2025 | 15.3% | 16.8% | 90.0% |
| 8/4/2025 | -32.4% | -38.7% | -34.1% |
| 5/5/2025 | 2.0% | -1.4% | -13.1% |
| 1/13/2025 | -13.4% | -12.2% | -9.1% |
| 11/4/2024 | 3.3% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| 7/29/2024 | 6.2% | 19.0% | 50.2% |
| 5/7/2024 | -33.5% | -35.4% | -36.3% |
| 2/6/2024 | -10.5% | -16.7% | -8.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 13 | 9 |
| # Negative | 9 | 11 | 15 |
| Median Positive | 6.8% | 5.6% | 23.4% |
| Median Negative | -12.6% | -16.7% | -13.1% |
| Max Positive | 31.8% | 39.1% | 90.0% |
| Max Negative | -33.5% | -38.7% | -36.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11032025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2102025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2092024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2152022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |