Tearsheet

TMC The Metals (TMC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.81 | Market Cap: $2.9 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

TMC The Metals (TMC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.81
Market Cap: $2.9 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Critical Battery Raw Materials, Show more.
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -76 Mil
2  Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 767%
3  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.7%
4  High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 128%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Battery Technology & Metals, Renewable Energy Transition, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Critical Battery Raw Materials, Show more.
1 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -76 Mil
3 Stock price has recently run up significantly
12M Rtn12 month market price return is 767%
4 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -9.7%
5 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 128%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TMC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of TMC The Metals (symbol: TMC) moved by 44% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, driven by several key developments and market sentiments:

1. Publication of Robust Economic Studies and Declaration of Mineral Reserves: The company released economic studies highlighting a combined Net Present Value (NPV) of $23.6 billion and declared 51 million tonnes of probable mineral reserves for its NORI-D project. These studies underpinned the project's economic potential and contributed to de-risking the venture.

2. Significant Strategic Investments: TMC secured substantial strategic investments, including an $85.2 million equity investment from Korea Zinc, a prominent leader in non-ferrous metal refining. These investments, along with $37 million from other partners, bolstered the company's financial standing and provided validation for its deep-sea mining initiatives.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TMC Return--81%-63%43%2%561%-31%
Peers Return65%13%-4%14%-22%-1%58%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TMC Win Rate67%42%42%42%42%80% 
Peers Win Rate32%27%28%30%33%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TMC Max Drawdown--84%-74%-14%-34%-6% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-12%-24%-9%-26%-40% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IIIN, FRD, AQMS, CRML, NEXM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTMCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-95.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2164.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-6.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven7.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven37 days148 days

Compare to IIIN, FRD, AQMS, CRML, NEXM


In The Past

TMC The Metals's stock fell -95.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/13/2021. A -95.6% loss requires a 2164.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About TMC The Metals (TMC)

Better Bets than TMC The Metals (TMC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TMC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for TMC The Metals

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TMCIIINFRDAQMSCRMLNEXMMedian
NameTMC The .Insteel .Friedman.Aqua Met.Critical.NexMetal. 
Mkt Price7.7231.4219.597.298.283.818.00
Mkt Cap2.80.60.10.0--0.4
Rev LTM06484650-00
Op Inc LTM-765411-16--46-16
FCF LTM-401911-14--45-14
FCF 3Y Avg-515725-18--40-18
CFO LTM-402717-11--43-11
CFO 3Y Avg-517634-9--31-9

Growth & Margins

TMCIIINFRDAQMSCRMLNEXMMedian
NameTMC The .Insteel .Friedman.Aqua Met.Critical.NexMetal. 
Rev Chg LTM-22.4%-5.8%-100.0%---5.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--5.9%8.6%---1.4%
Rev Chg Q-32.1%17.7%---24.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-7.1%4.5%---5.8%
Op Mgn LTM-8.4%2.4%---5.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-5.8%2.9%---4.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.7%1.8%---1.8%
CFO/Rev LTM-4.2%3.7%---3.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-12.4%6.6%---9.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-2.9%2.5%---2.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-9.2%4.9%---7.0%

Valuation

TMCIIINFRDAQMSCRMLNEXMMedian
NameTMC The .Insteel .Friedman.Aqua Met.Critical.NexMetal. 
Mkt Cap2.80.60.10.0--0.4
P/S-1.20.2---0.7
P/EBIT-18.913.98.2-0.0--4.1
P/E-18.418.213.5-0.0--6.7
P/CFO-61.227.56.7-0.0--3.3
Total Yield-5.4%8.2%7.7%-6,283.9%--1.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.8%0.2%0.0%--0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-9.0%8.9%26.5%-1,328.0%---0.1%
D/E0.00.00.31.3--0.2
Net D/E-0.0-0.00.3-3.0---0.0

Returns

TMCIIINFRDAQMSCRMLNEXMMedian
NameTMC The .Insteel .Friedman.Aqua Met.Critical.NexMetal. 
1M Rtn20.7%4.1%-12.4%-0.1%-24.3%-4.5%-2.3%
3M Rtn36.2%-14.1%-7.2%92.3%41.5%-30.6%14.5%
6M Rtn82.1%-8.7%17.0%-8.1%471.0%-17.0%
12M Rtn767.4%9.4%24.5%-67.9%7.3%-9.4%
3Y Rtn817.6%31.3%124.4%-95.1%--77.9%
1M Excs Rtn20.8%4.1%-12.4%-0.1%-24.2%-4.5%-2.3%
3M Excs Rtn45.4%-21.9%-12.5%84.5%39.2%-34.3%13.3%
6M Excs Rtn67.4%-23.5%2.3%-22.8%456.3%-2.3%
12M Excs Rtn796.8%-3.1%16.3%-83.0%8.0%-8.0%
3Y Excs Rtn775.6%-35.6%47.3%-168.3%--5.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity25,500,730
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120252.1%
Average Daily Volume6,721,670
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.79
Basic Shares Quantity366,626,500
Short % of Basic Shares7.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025814202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025514202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024327202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241115202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024814202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024513202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023325202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023814202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023511202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022327202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022815202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022509202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021325202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211115202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0ILVES ErikaChief Strategy Officer9242025Sell5.771,591,4859,182,8686,611,220Form
1May Brendan6272025Sell7.8025,000195,0751,886,687Form
2O'Sullivan AnthonyChief Development Officer5212025Sell4.49164,317738,2605,057,509Form
3Shesky CraigChief Financial Officer4022025Sell1.66353,702585,5181,896,620Form
4May Brendan3062025Sell1.678,91614,890180,970Form