Gentherm (THRM)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $37.15 | Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Gentherm (THRM)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $37.15Market Cap: $1.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.4% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116% | Key risksTHRM key risks include [1] its largest customer, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.4% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -116% |
| Key risksTHRM key risks include [1] its largest customer, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
THRM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Gentherm (THRM) stock movement during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, was influenced by several key factors.
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance: Gentherm reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 23, 2025, announcing non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.73, which surpassed the estimated $0.65. The company also achieved a record quarterly revenue of $387 million.
2. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgrade: On December 17, 2025, Gentherm Inc. stock was upgraded to a "Buy Candidate." The company holds a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating from analysts, with an average 12-month price target of $39.0, representing a potential upside of 5.58% from recent prices.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| THRM Return | 47% | 33% | -25% | -20% | -24% | -7% | -17% |
| Peers Return | 37% | 9% | -19% | 15% | -25% | 15% | 20% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| THRM Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 53% | 38% | 47% | 35% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| THRM Max Drawdown | -36% | -6% | -43% | -40% | -27% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -63% | -9% | -41% | -14% | -37% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PATK, VC, CVGI, APTV, MGA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | THRM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 151.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 228 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -27.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 436 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -89.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 852.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,701 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to PATK, VC, CVGI, APTV, MGA
In The Past
Gentherm's stock fell -60.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/14/2022. A -60.2% loss requires a 151.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to THRM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Gentherm
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 65.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.2 |
| Rev LTM | 3,816 |
| Op Inc LTM | 300 |
| FCF LTM | 275 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 274 |
| CFO LTM | 398 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 378 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.2 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 9.2 |
| P/E | 15.7 |
| P/CFO | 8.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 19.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -21.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -93.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automotive | 1,423 | 1,162 | 1,005 | 870 | 920 |
| Medical | 46 | 43 | 42 | 43 | 51 |
| Corporate and other unallocated expenses | 0 | ||||
| Total | 1,469 | 1,205 | 1,046 | 913 | 972 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automotive | 186 | 118 | 163 | 138 | 141 |
| Medical | -22 | -4 | -2 | 1 | -6 |
| Corporate and other unallocated expenses | -86 | -66 | -46 | -50 | -51 |
| Total | 77 | 48 | 115 | 89 | 84 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | 8.2% | 7.9% | -4.8% |
| 7/24/2025 | 2.7% | 1.8% | 8.3% |
| 2/19/2025 | -7.7% | -6.5% | -15.8% |
| 10/30/2024 | 1.6% | 6.9% | 1.4% |
| 7/31/2024 | 9.7% | -0.3% | -0.2% |
| 2/21/2024 | 20.0% | 15.8% | 9.4% |
| 10/26/2023 | -15.6% | -25.6% | -11.7% |
| 8/1/2023 | 10.5% | 8.3% | 2.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 6.2% | 8.1% | 10.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -5.9% | -5.9% |
| Max Positive | 20.0% | 15.8% | 28.3% |
| Max Negative | -15.6% | -25.6% | -37.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7242025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |