Tearsheet

TrueBlue (TBI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.02 | Market Cap: $150.1 Mil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services

TrueBlue (TBI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $5.02
Market Cap: $150.1 Mil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Work. Themes include Flexible Staffing Solutions, Workforce Management Services, and Talent Acquisition & Recruiting.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -114%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -148%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -27 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.7%
1   Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.1%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Work. Themes include Flexible Staffing Solutions, Workforce Management Services, and Talent Acquisition & Recruiting.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -114%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -148%
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -27 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.7%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.1%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -20%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TBI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Weak Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.

TrueBlue reported a significant decrease in revenue for the third quarter of 2025, falling to $382 million from $473 million in the prior year period, a 19% decline. The company also transitioned from a net loss of $0 million to a net loss of $8 million in the same period, with adjusted EBITDA halving to $5 million from $10 million in the prior year. 2. Challenging Fourth Quarter 2025 Outlook.

The company's forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 anticipates an adjusted EBITDA of $3 million. This outlook also projects a notable decline in gross margin by 370 to 410 basis points, primarily attributed to adjustments in the previous year's workers' compensation reserves and shifts in business mix.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TBI Return-22%48%-29%-22%-45%-40%-79%
Peers Return38%13%2%8%11%-14%64%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TBI Win Rate42%58%42%50%42%40% 
Peers Win Rate62%58%46%50%60%45% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TBI Max Drawdown-50%-2%-42%-45%-56%-54% 
Peers Max Drawdown-49%-20%-18%-15%-17%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PAYX, BBSI, JOB, ELCG, ADP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTBIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-67.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven205.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-50.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven99.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven411 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-36.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven56.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven772 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-78.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven362.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1817 days1480 days

Compare to PAYX, BBSI, JOB, ELCG, ADP


In The Past

TrueBlue's stock fell -67.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/25/2021. A -67.3% loss requires a 205.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About TrueBlue (TBI)

Better Bets than TrueBlue (TBI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TBI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for TrueBlue

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TBIPAYXBBSIJOBELCGADPMedian
NameTrueBlue Paychex Barrett .GEE ELC Automati. 
Mkt Price5.17113.3935.480.19-260.2235.48
Mkt Cap0.240.90.90.0-105.40.9
Rev LTM1,5845,5721,224111-20,9031,584
Op Inc LTM-272,20864-4-5,47264
FCF LTM-651,70927-1-4,21027
FCF 3Y Avg-241,670182-3,84618
CFO LTM-481,90143-1-4,75843
CFO 3Y Avg11,835332-4,41033

Growth & Margins

TBIPAYXBBSIJOBELCGADPMedian
NameTrueBlue Paychex Barrett .GEE ELC Automati. 
Rev Chg LTM-5.4%5.6%9.6%-5.8%-7.1%5.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-11.8%6.5%5.7%-11.8%-7.4%5.7%
Rev Chg Q12.8%10.2%8.4%-9.3%-7.1%8.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.2%2.4%2.1%-2.2%-1.7%2.1%
Op Mgn LTM-1.7%39.6%5.3%-3.8%-26.2%5.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-1.2%40.5%5.3%-2.3%-25.8%5.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.5%-1.9%0.0%0.6%--0.1%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-3.0%34.1%3.5%-0.5%-22.8%3.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-0.1%34.7%2.9%1.3%-22.5%2.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-4.1%30.7%2.2%-0.5%-20.1%2.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-1.6%31.6%1.6%1.2%-19.6%1.6%

Valuation

TBIPAYXBBSIJOBELCGADPMedian
NameTrueBlue Paychex Barrett .GEE ELC Automati. 
Mkt Cap0.240.90.90.0-105.40.9
P/S0.18.20.90.2-5.70.9
P/EBIT-6.720.015.4-0.8-20.415.4
P/E-6.527.620.8-0.6-28.720.8
P/CFO-3.924.026.4-38.1-25.024.0
Total Yield-15.3%6.8%5.2%-169.5%-5.5%5.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%3.2%0.4%0.0%-2.1%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-14.7%3.7%2.3%3.4%-3.5%3.4%
D/E0.70.10.00.2-0.10.1
Net D/E0.60.1-0.1-0.7-0.00.0

Returns

TBIPAYXBBSIJOBELCGADPMedian
NameTrueBlue Paychex Barrett .GEE ELC Automati. 
1M Rtn10.5%-0.5%-12.4%-0.8%-1.2%-0.5%
3M Rtn-9.6%-15.6%-26.7%-1.2%--12.5%-12.5%
6M Rtn-13.7%-27.6%-14.8%-2.4%--19.4%-14.8%
12M Rtn-34.1%-19.1%-17.4%-25.7%--12.5%-19.1%
3Y Rtn-75.7%-1.4%47.0%-75.9%-2.8%-1.4%
1M Excs Rtn10.5%-0.5%-12.4%-0.7%-1.2%-0.5%
3M Excs Rtn-15.4%-22.0%-33.0%-5.7%--18.5%-18.5%
6M Excs Rtn-28.4%-42.3%-29.6%-17.1%--34.1%-29.6%
12M Excs Rtn-44.8%-33.6%-30.2%-38.1%--27.0%-33.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-148.4%-69.7%-22.4%-147.7%--65.4%-69.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
PeopleReady1,0961,2731,2711,0991,474
PeopleManagement581664640587642
PeopleSolutions229318263160252
Total1,9062,2542,1741,8462,369


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
PeopleSolutions274536538
PeopleReady2788824382
PeopleManagement716131213
Third-party processing fees for hiring tax credits-0-1-1-0 
COVID-19 government subsidies, net of fees-1  6 
PeopleReady technology upgrade costs-1-8   
Amortization of software as a service assets-4-3-3-2 
Other costs, net-6-5-4  
Executive leadership transition costs-61   
Goodwill and intangible asset impairment charge-90 -175 
Depreciation and amortization (inclusive of depreciation included in cost of services)-26-29-28-32-38
Corporate unallocated-32-31-28-21-22
COVID-19 government assistance, net 04  
Gain on deferred compensation assets 0-3-2-0
PeopleReady technology upgrade cost  -1  
Other costs   4-1
Workforce reduction costs   -13-3
Acquisition/integration costs    -2
Work Opportunity Tax Credit processing fees    -1
Total-247268-17566


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,161,059
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-0.5%
Average Daily Volume269,113
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.31
Basic Shares Quantity29,896,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251103202510-Q 9/28/2025
6302025804202510-Q 6/29/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/30/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/29/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231023202310-Q 9/24/2023
6302023724202310-Q 6/25/2023
3312023424202310-Q 3/26/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/25/2022
93020221024202210-Q 9/25/2022
6302022725202210-Q 6/26/2022
3312022425202210-Q 3/27/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/26/2021