Virgin Galactic (SPCE)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $3.16 | Market Cap: $187.2 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Virgin Galactic (SPCE)
Market Price (12/17/2025): $3.16Market Cap: $187.2 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -139%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -170% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -307 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -18453% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 138x | ||
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -82%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.2% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16177%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27712% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 607% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24% | ||
| Key risksSPCE key risks include [1] its precarious financial health, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -139%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -170% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -307 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -18453% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 138x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -82%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.2% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -16177%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27712% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 607% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24% |
| Key risksSPCE key risks include [1] its precarious financial health, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SPCE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Virgin Galactic (SPCE) experienced significant downward pressure on its stock from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025, driven by several key factors. These factors contributed to substantial stock price declines, though the cumulative impact far exceeded the stated -0.3% in the given timeframe, with the stock dipping by nearly half year-to-date as of December 2025. **1. Delayed Commercial Operations and Minimal Revenue.** Virgin Galactic continued to face investor concerns regarding the extended timeline to commercial operations, which are targeted to commence in Q4 2026. This prolonged pre-commercial phase meant the company reported minimal revenue, such as $0.4 million for Q3 2025, primarily from access fees related to future astronaut bookings. **2. Disappointing Q3 2025 Financial Results.** On November 13, 2025, Virgin Galactic announced its third-quarter financial results, revealing a net loss of $64 million, despite an improvement from the previous year. Following this earnings release, the stock closed at $3.62, representing an 8.15% decline, reflecting investor apprehension about the company's financial performance during its development phase. **3. Capital Realignment Transactions.** Virgin Galactic's announcement on December 9, 2025, of capital realignment transactions related to its 2027 convertible notes, aimed at repurchasing and retiring approximately $355 million of debt, led to a significant stock drop. For instance, on December 16, 2025, shares fell 17% following the announcement of this plan. **4. Plans for Common Stock Sale.** A separate announcement on December 9, 2025, regarding plans to sell up to $45.6 million worth of common stock through an open market agreement, caused the stock to plunge by 16.4%. This move likely triggered investor concerns over potential share dilution. **5. Continued High Cash Burn.** The company reported a negative free cash flow of $108 million for the third quarter of 2025, despite a modest improvement from the prior year. Management also projected a free cash flow burn between $90 million and $100 million for Q4 2025, highlighting the continued substantial capital expenditure required during its development phase.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SPCE Return | 105% | -44% | -74% | -30% | -88% | -49% | -99% |
| Peers Return | � | 14% | 6% | 10% | 76% | 44% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SPCE Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 33% | 50% | 17% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 57% | 45% | 53% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SPCE Max Drawdown | -9% | -45% | -75% | -60% | -89% | -60% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -8% | -24% | -16% | -20% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BA, LMT, NOC, RTX, RKLB. See SPCE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SPCE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -97.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 4205.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -71.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 256.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 313 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 120 days |
Compare to BA, LMT, APEX, BETA, DFSC
In The Past
Virgin Galactic's stock fell -97.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -97.7% loss requires a 4205.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SPCE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Virgin Galactic
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 193.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 96.0 |
| Rev LTM | 57,138 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,934 |
| FCF LTM | 801 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 983 |
| CFO LTM | 1,667 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,851 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -1.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 0.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 1.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -1.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 96.0 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/EBIT | 17.5 |
| P/E | 10.5 |
| P/CFO | 8.7 |
| Total Yield | 1.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -0.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 12.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 9.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -58.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/13/2025 | 10.9% | 3.6% | |
| 8/6/2025 | -9.5% | -19.6% | -14.8% |
| 5/15/2025 | 43.3% | 9.9% | -8.7% |
| 2/26/2025 | -0.3% | -9.1% | -15.4% |
| 11/6/2024 | -11.8% | -0.6% | -9.0% |
| 8/7/2024 | 14.0% | 17.8% | 10.8% |
| 5/7/2024 | -1.5% | 25.7% | -18.0% |
| 2/27/2024 | -7.9% | -15.8% | -23.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 10 | 7 |
| # Negative | 13 | 14 | 17 |
| Median Positive | 7.4% | 14.1% | 22.4% |
| Median Negative | -9.5% | -16.1% | -20.7% |
| Max Positive | 43.3% | 40.4% | 95.9% |
| Max Negative | -17.6% | -28.3% | -53.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11132025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |