South Bow (SOBO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $27.47 | Market Cap: $5.7 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
South Bow (SOBO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $27.47Market Cap: $5.7 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 8.8% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 99% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.4% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 8.8% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 99% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.4% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SOBO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The South Bow (SOBO) stock experienced a -0.7% movement in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. This movement can be attributed to a combination of factors including mixed quarterly earnings, analyst rating adjustments, and general market dynamics.
1. Mixed Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings Report: South Bow reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 13, 2025, with an EPS of $0.47, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.38. However, revenue for the quarter was $461.00 million, missing analysts' expectations of $498.00 million and representing a 13.7% decrease year-over-year. This mixed performance, where earnings beat expectations but revenue fell short, could have contributed to a slight downward pressure on the stock.
2. Analyst Rating Adjustments: Several analysts adjusted their ratings and price targets for SOBO during this period. For example, US Capital Advisors lowered South Bow from a "strong-buy" to a "hold" rating on October 28, 2025. JPMorgan Chase & Co. also reiterated an "underweight" rating with a $27.00 price objective in August 2025. Such downgrades or maintained negative outlooks from analysts can influence investor sentiment and contribute to stock price declines.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SOBO Return | - | - | - | - | - | 23% | 23% |
| Peers Return | -20% | 38% | 27% | 13% | 50% | 9% | 159% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SOBO Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 50% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 73% | 65% | 60% | 72% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SOBO Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -56% | -0% | -1% | -8% | -3% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ET, MPLX, ENB, WMB, KMI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
SOBO has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.
| Event | XLE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1201 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1858 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| South Bow (SOBO) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SOBO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 25.5% | 25.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 11.8% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.7% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 25.5% | 25.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.7% | 0.7% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for South Bow
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 37.46 |
| Mkt Cap | 67.8 |
| Rev LTM | 13,956 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,542 |
| FCF LTM | 3,406 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 4,589 |
| CFO LTM | 5,912 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,918 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 30.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 27.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 67.8 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/EBIT | 11.3 |
| P/E | 20.7 |
| P/CFO | 9.8 |
| Total Yield | 8.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 14.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 68.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -10.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 0.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3062025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |