Tearsheet

South Bow (SOBO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $27.47 | Market Cap: $5.7 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation

South Bow (SOBO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $27.47
Market Cap: $5.7 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 8.8%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 99%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.4%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
 
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2%, FCF Yield is 8.8%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 99%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.4%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SOBO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The South Bow (SOBO) stock experienced a -0.7% movement in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025. This movement can be attributed to a combination of factors including mixed quarterly earnings, analyst rating adjustments, and general market dynamics.

1. Mixed Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings Report: South Bow reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 13, 2025, with an EPS of $0.47, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.38. However, revenue for the quarter was $461.00 million, missing analysts' expectations of $498.00 million and representing a 13.7% decrease year-over-year. This mixed performance, where earnings beat expectations but revenue fell short, could have contributed to a slight downward pressure on the stock.

2. Analyst Rating Adjustments: Several analysts adjusted their ratings and price targets for SOBO during this period. For example, US Capital Advisors lowered South Bow from a "strong-buy" to a "hold" rating on October 28, 2025. JPMorgan Chase & Co. also reiterated an "underweight" rating with a $27.00 price objective in August 2025. Such downgrades or maintained negative outlooks from analysts can influence investor sentiment and contribute to stock price declines.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SOBO Return-----23%23%
Peers Return-20%38%27%13%50%9%159%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SOBO Win Rate----50%70% 
Peers Win Rate43%73%65%60%72%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SOBO Max Drawdown------6% 
Peers Max Drawdown-56%-0%-1%-8%-3%-6% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ET, MPLX, ENB, WMB, KMI.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

SOBO has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven36.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven116 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven153.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven660 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-31.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1201 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-57.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven137.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1858 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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About South Bow (SOBO)

Better Bets than South Bow (SOBO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleTopic
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1South Bow (SOBO) Valuation Ratios ComparisonFinancials
Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SOBO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
11.8%11.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.7%17.7%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.7%5.7%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
25.5%25.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.7%0.7%-5.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
11.8%11.8%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.7%17.7%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.7%5.7%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
25.5%25.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.7%0.7%-5.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for South Bow

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SOBOETMPLXENBWMBKMIMedian
NameSouth BowEnergy T.MPLX Enbridge Williams.Kinder M. 
Mkt Price27.07--47.7561.5527.1737.46
Mkt Cap5.6--104.175.260.467.8
Rev LTM2,03879,75711,42064,23411,49516,41613,956
Op Inc LTM7009,2404,62611,1993,9414,4594,542
FCF LTM4775,1894,6864,0541,7222,7573,406
FCF 3Y Avg-6,0954,5896,7072,4583,3754,589
CFO LTM63310,8416,08812,8215,5405,7355,912
CFO 3Y Avg-10,2175,70813,1915,4845,9185,918

Growth & Margins

SOBOETMPLXENBWMBKMIMedian
NameSouth BowEnergy T.MPLX Enbridge Williams.Kinder M. 
Rev Chg LTM-6.5%-4.7%6.3%32.3%9.0%8.3%7.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--3.0%2.5%8.6%0.8%-4.3%0.8%
Rev Chg Q-5.4%-3.9%4.6%-1.6%10.2%12.1%1.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.5%-1.0%1.1%-0.4%2.4%2.8%0.4%
Op Mgn LTM34.3%11.6%40.5%17.4%34.3%27.2%30.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-10.8%40.6%19.1%35.5%27.6%27.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.5%0.1%-0.4%0.1%1.6%-0.5%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM31.0%13.6%53.3%20.0%48.2%34.9%33.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-12.7%52.8%25.6%49.8%37.5%37.5%
FCF/Rev LTM23.4%6.5%41.0%6.3%15.0%16.8%15.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-7.5%42.5%13.5%22.5%21.5%21.5%

Valuation

SOBOETMPLXENBWMBKMIMedian
NameSouth BowEnergy T.MPLX Enbridge Williams.Kinder M. 
Mkt Cap5.6--104.175.260.467.8
P/S2.6--1.76.73.83.2
P/EBIT7.1--8.416.714.111.3
P/E18.0--18.332.723.120.7
P/CFO8.5--8.614.011.09.8
Total Yield9.4%--12.9%6.2%8.4%8.9%
Dividend Yield3.9%--7.4%3.1%4.1%4.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg---8.3%4.7%7.2%7.2%
D/E1.1--0.90.40.50.7
Net D/E1.0--0.90.40.50.7

Returns

SOBOETMPLXENBWMBKMIMedian
NameSouth BowEnergy T.MPLX Enbridge Williams.Kinder M. 
1M Rtn5.7%--3.9%4.3%4.2%4.2%
3M Rtn0.4%--0.2%7.5%2.8%1.6%
6M Rtn4.9%--5.3%4.1%-0.9%4.5%
12M Rtn15.5%--16.4%12.6%3.4%14.0%
3Y Rtn---43.5%102.0%68.6%68.6%
1M Excs Rtn5.7%--3.9%4.3%4.2%4.3%
3M Excs Rtn-5.3%---4.8%2.5%-2.5%-3.6%
6M Excs Rtn-9.8%---9.4%-10.6%-15.7%-10.2%
12M Excs Rtn-1.2%--3.1%-4.7%-13.2%-3.0%
3Y Excs Rtn----31.4%38.1%0.7%0.7%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,127,652
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120255.7%
Average Daily Volume882,682
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.07
Basic Shares Quantity208,200,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202580720256-K 6/30/2025
331202551520256-K 3/31/2025
12312024306202540-F 12/31/2024