South Bow (SOBO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $27.635 | Market Cap: $5.8 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
South Bow (SOBO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $27.635Market Cap: $5.8 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 5.3% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.9% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 12x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | Key risksSOBO key risks include [1] operational integrity issues and regulatory scrutiny on its Keystone pipeline, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 5.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.9% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 12x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14% |
| Key risksSOBO key risks include [1] operational integrity issues and regulatory scrutiny on its Keystone pipeline, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SOBO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why South Bow (SOBO) stock experienced positive movement around the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Jefferies Upgraded South Bow to Buy. On December 15, 2025, Jefferies upgraded South Bow Corp (SOBO) from a "Hold" to a "Buy" rating. The firm also increased its price target for the stock, citing strengthened confidence in the company's execution of its growth strategy after meetings with management.
2. Increased Analyst Price Targets. Several analysts revised their price targets for SOBO upwards. For instance, National Bankshares raised its price target for South Bow from $27 to $29 on December 17, 2025. This reflects a positive outlook on the stock's future performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SOBO Return | � | � | � | � | � | 23% | � |
| Peers Return | -30% | 34% | 25% | 10% | 39% | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SOBO Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 50% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 69% | 65% | 56% | 71% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SOBO Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -6% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -56% | -1% | -1% | -10% | -4% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ENB, ET, KMI, PBA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
SOBO has limited trading history. Below is the Energy sector ETF (XLE) in its place.
| Event | XLE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,201 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 137.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,858 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -26.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -26.9% loss requires a 36.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| South Bow (SOBO) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SOBO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.4% | 9.4% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.1% | 27.1% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.0% | -3.0% | -7.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.4% | 9.4% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.1% | 27.1% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.0% | -3.0% | -7.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for South Bow
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 32.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 40.5 |
| Rev LTM | 16,416 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,459 |
| FCF LTM | 2,757 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 4,735 |
| CFO LTM | 5,735 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,068 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 27.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 40.5 |
| P/S | 3.0 |
| P/EBIT | 8.4 |
| P/E | 18.0 |
| P/CFO | 9.8 |
| Total Yield | 11.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| D/E | 0.6 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 13.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 49.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -22.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3062025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |