South Bow (SOBO)
Market Price (6/18/2026): $36.09 | Market Cap: $7.5 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
South Bow (SOBO)
Market Price (6/18/2026): $36.09Market Cap: $7.5 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 5.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.9%, FCF Yield is 8.0% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.44 | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 68% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.4% Key risksSOBO key risks include [1] operational integrity issues and regulatory scrutiny on its Keystone pipeline, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 5.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.9%, FCF Yield is 8.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.44 |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 68% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.4% |
| Key risksSOBO key risks include [1] operational integrity issues and regulatory scrutiny on its Keystone pipeline, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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South Bow (SOBO) stock has gained about 15% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Positive Fiscal Q4 2025 Results and Dividend Declaration.
South Bow reported its fiscal Q4 2025 and year-end 2025 results on March 5, 2026, announcing a normalized EBITDA for Q4 2025 of approximately $252 million, an increase from the prior quarter, which contributed to initial positive sentiment for the period. The company also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns.
2. Successful Commercial Service of Blackrod Connection Project.
During fiscal Q1 2026, South Bow placed its Blackrod Connection Project into commercial service on schedule and within budget. This project is anticipated to contribute approximately $10 million in normalized EBITDA for fiscal 2026, indicating successful execution of a growth initiative and future revenue potential.
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South Bow (SOBO) stock has gained about 15% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Positive Fiscal Q4 2025 Results and Dividend Declaration.
South Bow reported its fiscal Q4 2025 and year-end 2025 results on March 5, 2026, announcing a normalized EBITDA for Q4 2025 of approximately $252 million, an increase from the prior quarter, which contributed to initial positive sentiment for the period. The company also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder returns.
2. Successful Commercial Service of Blackrod Connection Project.
During fiscal Q1 2026, South Bow placed its Blackrod Connection Project into commercial service on schedule and within budget. This project is anticipated to contribute approximately $10 million in normalized EBITDA for fiscal 2026, indicating successful execution of a growth initiative and future revenue potential.
3. Reaffirmed 2026 Guidance Despite Fiscal Q1 2026 EPS Miss.
Despite reporting fiscal Q1 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.44, which missed the consensus estimate of $0.46, South Bow reaffirmed its annual normalized EBITDA guidance for 2026 at $1.03 billion (±2%). This reiteration of a stable financial outlook, coupled with a 1.0% year-over-year revenue increase to $491 million in fiscal Q1 2026, reassured investors and supported the stock's upward trend, with shares drifting 10.0% higher in the 36 days following the May 7, 2026, earnings announcement.
4. Successful Open Season Announcement.
On May 29, 2026, South Bow announced a successful Open Season. This development signals robust market demand for the company's pipeline services and indicates potential for future capacity expansions and revenue growth, positively impacting investor confidence.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.8% change in SOBO stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 26.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.74 | 36.12 | 13.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,971 | 1,979 | 0.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.8% | 21.3% | 26.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.9 | 17.8 | -10.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 208 | 208 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SOBO | 13.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.3% | -16.5% |
| Sector (XLE) | -1.6% | 56.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 35.4% change in SOBO stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 26.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 26.68 | 36.12 | 35.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,971 | 1,979 | 0.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.8% | 21.3% | 26.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.7 | 17.8 | 6.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 208 | 208 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 35.4% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SOBO | 35.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.0% | -11.6% |
| Sector (XLE) | 22.7% | 42.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 49.0% change in SOBO stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 51.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 24.25 | 36.12 | 49.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,074 | 1,979 | -4.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.1% | 21.3% | 51.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.3 | 17.8 | 3.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 208 | 208 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 49.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SOBO | 49.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 27.2% | 0.2% |
| Sector (XLE) | 38.4% | 34.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SOBO | ||
| Market (SPY) | 84.3% | 21.8% |
| Sector (XLE) | 57.4% | 31.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SOBO Return | - | - | - | 8% | 26% | 37% | 85% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 15% | 4% | 35% | 11% | 21% | 181% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SOBO Win Rate | - | - | - | 67% | 75% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 72% | 64% | 56% | 69% | 58% | 89% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SOBO Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -19% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -24% | -17% | -12% | -14% | -8% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ENB, KMI, PBA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/17/2026 (YTD)
About South Bow (SOBO)
South Bow (SOBO) is a North American energy company dedicated to the safe and reliable delivery of critical energy supplies. The company's core business revolves around ensuring essential energy resources reach customers across the continent, emphasizing operational excellence and dependability in its services.
Beyond its primary function of energy delivery, South Bow operates with a strong commitment to corporate values, including humility, integrity, and respect. It prioritizes ethical conduct and active listening to employees, customers, and communities to continuously improve its operations. This approach underpins its vision of protecting the environment and being a responsible steward in the areas where it operates, aiming to build and maintain the trust of all stakeholders.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for South Bow (SOBO):
- It's like Enbridge for North American energy delivery, but with an unwavering commitment to ethical conduct and environmental protection.
- Think of a company like Kinder Morgan, focused on North American energy infrastructure, but built from the ground up on principles of integrity, community trust, and environmental stewardship.
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- Energy Delivery Services: South Bow safely and reliably delivers critical energy supplies for its North American customers.
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South Bow (symbol: SOBO) is an energy infrastructure company primarily involved in the safe and reliable transportation and storage of crude oil and other liquid hydrocarbons, predominantly through extensive pipeline systems across North America. As such, it sells its services primarily to other companies (B2B), rather than directly to individual consumers.
While specific customer names are typically not publicly disclosed due to the confidential nature of commercial agreements, South Bow's major customers fall into the following categories within the North American energy sector:
- Crude Oil Producers and Upstream Companies: These are companies engaged in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil. They utilize South Bow's pipelines to transport their extracted crude from production basins (e.g., Western Canada) to market hubs, storage facilities, or refineries.
- Refining and Downstream Companies: These companies own and operate oil refineries that process crude oil into various petroleum products (such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel). They rely on South Bow's infrastructure to reliably receive large volumes of crude oil feedstock for their operations, often connecting to refining centers in the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast.
- Oil Marketers and Traders: These entities specialize in the buying, selling, and logistical movement of large volumes of crude oil and other liquid hydrocarbons. They use South Bow's pipeline network for efficient transportation and delivery as part of their trading, supply chain management, and arbitrage strategies.
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Bevin Wirzba President and Chief Executive Officer
Bevin Wirzba leads South Bow as President and Chief Executive Officer, overseeing a team of over 600 professionals. Prior to South Bow, he served as Executive Vice-President at TransCanada PipeLines Limited until 2024. His extensive career also includes roles as Senior Vice-President, Business Development and Capital Markets at ARC Resources Ltd., Managing Director at RBC Dominion Securities, and various multidisciplinary positions with Chevron Corp. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering and an MBA.
Van R. Dafoe Senior Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer
Van R. Dafoe brings over 30 years of energy industry experience to his role as Senior Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer, where he is responsible for finance, accounting, tax, risk management, capital markets, and information technology. Previously, he was Senior Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer at ARC Resources Ltd. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce (Honours) Degree and is a Chartered Professional Accountant.
Richard J. Prior Senior Vice President & Chief Operating Officer
Richard J. Prior is the Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, and is also referred to as Executive Vice President & President, Liquids Pipelines. He emphasizes safety as a core principle, with over 2.5 million work hours under his oversight across various projects, including the Blackrod Connection Project, completed with zero recordable safety incidents.
Lori M. Muratta Senior Vice-President & General Counsel
Lori M. Muratta serves as the Senior Vice-President and General Counsel for South Bow.
Martha Wilmot Director of Investor Relations
Martha Wilmot is the Director of Investor Relations, actively participating in the company's earnings calls.
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The public company South Bow (SOBO), an energy infrastructure company focused on safely and reliably delivering critical energy supplies across North America, faces several key business risks. These risks include significant financial leverage, ongoing operational constraints and regulatory scrutiny related to pipeline incidents, and broader geopolitical and regulatory challenges affecting its operations and growth prospects.
Key Risks to South Bow (SOBO)
- High Financial Leverage and Debt Burden: South Bow is exposed to considerable financial risk due to its high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.19 and a low interest coverage ratio of 2.06, which is below the preferred level for financial stability. Analysts have noted that the company's liabilities, when compared to its cash and near-term receivables, exceed its market capitalization, and its net debt to EBITDA ratio stands at a high 5.8. Furthermore, its Altman Z-Score of 0.86 places the company in a "distress zone," indicating a potential bankruptcy risk within two years. Debt repayment is a top capital allocation priority for the company, and its dividend coverage has been flagged as not well supported by earnings.
- Operational Constraints and Regulatory Scrutiny: The company faces ongoing operational risks, particularly concerning its Keystone Pipeline System. Following the Milepost 171 (MP-171) incident in April 2025, which involved an oil spill caused by a fatigue crack in a weld, regulators imposed operating pressure restrictions. These restrictions limit the pipeline's capacity to transport uncommitted or spot volumes, thereby impacting potential revenue. The Keystone system has a history of leaks, making its stability a continuous concern for investors and subjecting South Bow to heightened regulatory oversight and corrective action orders.
- Geopolitical and Regulatory Challenges: South Bow operates within a complex geopolitical and regulatory landscape in North America. The company's projects, such as a potential revival of Keystone XL segments, are subject to significant regulatory and political approval risks on both sides of the Canada-U.S. border, which could lead to delays or reshaping of initiatives. Broader policy, trade, and environmental discussions add to the complexity and timing risks for its infrastructure projects. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainty and tariffs on energy exports have led to volatility in crude oil pricing differentials, potentially impacting South Bow's marketing segment and its uncommitted pipeline capacity.
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The accelerating global transition to renewable energy sources and decarbonization efforts, which could lead to reduced long-term demand for traditional critical energy supplies.
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The public company South Bow (SOBO) primarily operates as an energy infrastructure company, focusing on the transportation of crude oil through its pipeline systems across North America, including the Keystone Pipeline System. They also offer crude oil marketing services, which encompass transportation, storage, and logistics, along with ancillary terminal storage services.
The addressable market for South Bow's main products and services, primarily crude oil pipeline transportation and related logistics in North America, can be represented by the North America Oil & Gas Pipeline Market.
The North America Oil & Gas Pipeline Market was valued at approximately USD 6.52 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow to USD 9.88 billion by 2028, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.01% during that period. North America held a significant 40.0% share of the global Oil & Gas Pipeline Market in 2024.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for South Bow (SOBO) over the Next 2-3 Years:
- Blackrod Connection Project: The Blackrod Connection Project, which entered commercial service in the first quarter of 2026, is expected to be a direct contributor to revenue growth. It is projected to add approximately $10 million in normalized EBITDA in 2026, with cash flows continuing to grow into 2027.
- Marketing Segment Recovery and Growth: South Bow anticipates a recovery and increased contribution from its marketing segment. Normalized EBITDA for this segment is expected to be approximately $15 million higher in 2026 compared to 2025, reflecting a rebound from prior losses.
- Keystone Pipeline System Normalization: The phased lifting of pressure restrictions related to the Milepost 171 incident on the Keystone Pipeline System is expected to drive revenue growth. Remedial actions have been completed, and management anticipates the Corrective Action Order could be lifted by the end of 2026, allowing the pipeline to return to baseline operations and potentially increase throughput.
- Strategic Corridor Expansion: South Bow is focused on strengthening and expanding its strategic pipeline corridor to enhance competitive connections and offer greater optionality to customers in North America. This includes pursuing both organic and inorganic growth opportunities to further extend its reach and service capabilities.
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Share Issuance
- South Bow issued $9 million in common stock in 2024.
- For the trailing twelve months ending September 2025, the company issued $14 million in common stock.
- The number of shares outstanding increased by 0.69% in one year, reaching 208.25 million as of February 2026.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures totaled $37 million in 2023 and $122 million in 2024.
- In 2025, South Bow invested $103 million in the Blackrod Connection Project, with additional capital directed towards information systems and leasehold improvements for establishing the company as an independent entity.
- For 2026, planned capital expenditures include $10 million for growth initiatives and approximately $25 million (±$10 million) for maintenance, focusing on bolstering infrastructure and operational sustainability.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| South Bow (SOBO) Valuation Ratios Comparison | 05/15/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 05/19/2026 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |
| South Bow (SOBO) Valuation Ratios Comparison | |
| ARTICLES | |
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 41.16 |
| Mkt Cap | 48.3 |
| Rev LTM | 12,563 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,854 |
| FCF LTM | 1,830 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,311 |
| CFO LTM | 4,521 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,067 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 31.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 28.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 37.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.7% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $36.12 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 7.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/03/2024 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -5.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $35.23 | $28.04 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 2.5% | 28.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 23.5% | 21.1% |
| Downside Capture | -51.48 | -20.58 |
| Upside Capture | 1.69 | 28.33 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -23.8% | -1.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.02 | -0.79 | -0.35 | -0.25 | -0.00 | 0.21 |
| Up Beta | -1.25 | -0.99 | -1.07 | -0.95 | -0.64 | 0.09 |
| Down Beta | -0.79 | -0.77 | 0.47 | 0.18 | 0.48 | 0.05 |
| Up Capture | -17% | -4% | 4% | 23% | 22% | 6% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 35 | 69 | 135 | 221 |
| Down Capture | -237% | -197% | -75% | -72% | -33% | 4% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 19 | 28 | 54 | 113 | 188 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SOBO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOBO | 43.7% | 21.1% | 1.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 28.6% | 20.9% | 1.10 | 35.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 24.5% | 12.4% | 1.48 | -0.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.7% | 27.5% | 0.79 | 2.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 22.7% | 18.9% | 0.95 | 22.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.6% | 13.8% | 0.49 | 8.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -38.7% | 42.4% | -1.04 | 4.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SOBO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOBO | 12.6% | 28.7% | 1.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 18.8% | 26.1% | 0.65 | 31.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 21.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.9% | 18.3% | 0.75 | 7.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | 18.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 25.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 12.3% | 54.2% | 0.42 | 11.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SOBO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOBO | 6.1% | 28.7% | 1.22 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 9.0% | 29.6% | 0.35 | 31.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 21.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.4% | 16.1% | 0.63 | 7.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 18.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 25.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.4% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 11.7% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
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