Volato (SOAR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.28 | Market Cap: $3.3 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Airport Services
Volato (SOAR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.28Market Cap: $3.3 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Airport Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -92% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -150%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -172% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.8% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 291% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 237% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -72% | |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 1623% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -92% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 291% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -150%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -172% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 16% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.8% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 237% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -72% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 1623% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SOAR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points highlighting why Volato (SOAR) stock experienced a significant negative movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Shift in Business Model and Divestiture of Core Aviation Assets
On October 7, 2025, flyExclusive announced the strategic acquisition of Volato's aircraft sales division, the Vaunt Platform, and Mission Control Software. This marked a substantial pivot for Volato away from its traditional private aviation operations, which likely introduced investor uncertainty regarding the company's future revenue streams and core business focus.
2. Nature of Q3 2025 Profitability Driven by Non-Operating Factors
While Volato reported its third consecutive quarterly profit for Q3 2025, with net income of $7.1 million and diluted EPS of $1.26, the company's revenue for the quarter was notably low at $0.4 million. This profitability was primarily driven by negotiated settlements and liability expirations rather than robust operating revenue, which could have raised concerns among investors about the sustainability and quality of its earnings.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SOAR Return | - | - | - | -63% | -94% | -80% | -100% |
| Peers Return | 8% | -15% | -35% | -13% | -43% | -17% | -76% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SOAR Win Rate | - | - | 82% | 92% | 17% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 27% | 50% | 56% | 31% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SOAR Max Drawdown | - | - | - | -65% | -95% | -98% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -33% | -41% | -48% | -61% | -49% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JOBY, UP, ASLE, SOAR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SOAR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -89.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 806.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to JOBY, UP, ASLE, SOAR
In The Past
Volato's stock fell -89.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/29/2023. A -89.0% loss requires a 806.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SOAR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Volato
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 3.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 216 |
| Op Inc LTM | -135 |
| FCF LTM | -152 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -363 |
| CFO LTM | -60 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -278 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 144.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -13.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6,813.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 17.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -16.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -15.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -12.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -21.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -23.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -29.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | -1.9 |
| P/E | -2.6 |
| P/CFO | -6.1 |
| Total Yield | -17.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -15.5% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -16.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -23.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -15.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -32.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -77.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -16.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -26.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -30.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -49.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -149.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3312025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11192024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5152024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 11132023 | 424B3 12/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |