Sleep Number (SNBR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.85 | Market Cap: $157.3 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Household Appliances
Sleep Number (SNBR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.85Market Cap: $157.3 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Household Appliances
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Health & Wellness Trends, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Wearable Health Devices, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -150% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 583% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -20% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -53% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 102% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine, Health & Wellness Trends, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Wearable Health Devices, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -84%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -150% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 583% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -20% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.0%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -53% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 102% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 29% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SNBR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Significant Q3 2025 Earnings and Revenue Miss: Sleep Number's third-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of -$1.73 sharply missed the forecasted $0.15, and revenue of $343 million fell short of the expected $362.48 million, leading to a substantial pre-market stock drop of 27.82% on November 5, 2025.
2. Steep Decline in Net Sales: The company experienced a 19.6% year-over-year decrease in net sales for Q3 2025, reaching $343 million, attributed to lower sales volume, a reduced store footprint, decreased marketing spend, and product portfolio challenges.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SNBR Return | 66% | -6% | -66% | -43% | 3% | -56% | -86% |
| Peers Return | -15% | 131% | -21% | 44% | 2% | 4% | 137% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SNBR Win Rate | 83% | 33% | 25% | 42% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 22% | 28% | 27% | 40% | 28% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SNBR Max Drawdown | -68% | -9% | -68% | -64% | -42% | -76% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -5% | -28% | -5% | -7% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: SCS, HNI, TTSH, ALH, XWIN. See SNBR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SNBR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1471.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -74.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 284.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 195 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -99.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 10441.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1036 days | 1480 days |
Compare to SCS, HNI, TTSH, ALH, XWIN
In The Past
Sleep Number's stock fell -93.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -93.6% loss requires a 1471.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SNBR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 03312022 | SNBR | Sleep Number | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -33.8% | -40.0% | -51.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 03312022 | SNBR | Sleep Number | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | -33.8% | -40.0% | -51.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Sleep Number
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 11.45 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| Rev LTM | 1,441 |
| Op Inc LTM | 15 |
| FCF LTM | -1 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 18 |
| CFO LTM | 10 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 32 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -5.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 1.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -1.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.1 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 2.5 |
| P/E | 5.5 |
| P/CFO | 17.8 |
| Total Yield | 3.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -12.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 54.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -26.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -15.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3072025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 1/1/2022 |
External Quote Links
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