Tearsheet

Super Micro Computer (SMCI)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $32.75 | Market Cap: $19.5 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Super Micro Computer (SMCI)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $32.75
Market Cap: $19.5 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and AI Chips.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -30%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 86x
1  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15%
2   Short seller report
Hindenburg Research report on 8/27/2024.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and AI Chips.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -30%
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 86x
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15%
5 Short seller report
Hindenburg Research report on 8/27/2024.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SMCI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

During the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 15, 2025, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) experienced a notable decline in its stock value, dropping by approximately 22.2%. Several key factors contributed to this downward movement: 1. Disappointing Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Report: Super Micro Computer reported weaker-than-expected results for its first fiscal quarter of 2026 (ending September 30, 2025), which were announced around early November 2025. The company missed analyst estimates for both earnings per share ($0.35 reported versus $0.46 expected) and revenue ($5.02 billion reported versus $6.48 billion expected), marking a 15.5% year-over-year revenue decrease. 2. Revenue Shift and Data Center Readiness Delays: A significant portion of the revenue miss for Q1 FY2026 was attributed to a shift of approximately $1.5 billion in sales from the September quarter to the December quarter. This delay was primarily due to last-minute configuration upgrades requested by customers for complex GPU racks, which required intricate integration, testing, and validation. Additionally, delays in data center readiness were cited as a bottleneck.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SMCI Return32%39%87%246%7%12%1316%
Peers Return14%55%-19%52%45%21%284%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SMCI Win Rate58%58%50%58%42%58% 
Peers Win Rate55%72%38%62%65%63% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SMCI Max Drawdown-33%-2%-21%-14%-37%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-38%-4%-34%-7%-6%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DELL, HPE, ANET, CSCO, NTAP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSMCIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-34.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven52.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven120 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-45.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven84.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven82 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-59.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven147.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven440 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-66.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven196.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven404 days1480 days

Compare to MKSI, OLED, BMI, AVT, BGIN


In The Past

Super Micro Computer's stock fell -34.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/7/2023. A -34.5% loss requires a 52.6% gain to breakeven.

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About Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

Better Bets than Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SMCI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.7%11.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.8%5.8%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.6%11.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.7%11.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.8%5.8%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.6%11.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Super Micro Computer

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SMCIDELLHPEANETCSCONTAPMedian
NameSuper Mi.Dell Tec.Hewlett .Arista N.Cisco Sy.NetApp  
Mkt Price32.33129.9823.87124.7677.80115.6696.73
Mkt Cap19.395.131.6156.9307.823.663.4
Rev LTM21,053104,09033,0758,44857,6966,63727,064
Op Inc LTM9266,9242,0353,62312,9911,5002,829
FCF LTM2184,4492254,04612,7331,6762,861
FCF 3Y Avg-5684,7811,4712,91113,8791,3602,191
CFO LTM3337,0962,4844,14113,7441,8603,312
CFO 3Y Avg-4657,4744,0862,96414,7361,5343,525

Growth & Margins

SMCIDELLHPEANETCSCONTAPMedian
NameSuper Mi.Dell Tec.Hewlett .Arista N.Cisco Sy.NetApp  
Rev Chg LTM11.9%10.8%14.0%27.8%8.9%2.5%11.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg63.1%0.2%5.9%29.4%3.7%0.6%4.8%
Rev Chg Q-15.5%10.8%18.5%27.5%7.5%2.8%9.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-4.2%2.6%4.5%6.3%1.8%0.7%2.2%
Op Mgn LTM4.4%6.7%6.2%42.9%22.5%22.6%14.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg7.4%6.1%7.6%40.8%24.2%20.8%14.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.3%0.2%-0.8%-0.3%0.4%0.8%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM1.6%6.8%7.5%49.0%23.8%28.0%15.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-0.8%7.8%13.6%41.7%26.1%23.8%18.7%
FCF/Rev LTM1.0%4.3%0.7%47.9%22.1%25.3%13.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-1.4%5.0%5.0%41.0%24.6%21.1%13.1%

Valuation

SMCIDELLHPEANETCSCONTAPMedian
NameSuper Mi.Dell Tec.Hewlett .Arista N.Cisco Sy.NetApp  
Mkt Cap19.395.131.6156.9307.823.663.4
P/S1.40.90.821.75.33.62.5
P/EBIT28.9-13.150.619.7-24.3
P/E36.018.321.754.629.820.025.8
P/CFO85.713.410.944.322.412.717.9
Total Yield2.8%7.0%7.1%1.8%5.5%6.8%6.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.5%2.5%0.0%2.1%1.8%1.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.8%-5.8%2.5%6.0%-4.1%
D/E0.2-0.90.00.1-0.1
Net D/E0.0-0.7-0.10.0-0.0

Returns

SMCIDELLHPEANETCSCONTAPMedian
NameSuper Mi.Dell Tec.Hewlett .Arista N.Cisco Sy.NetApp  
1M Rtn-11.2%-2.8%4.6%-5.0%-0.3%5.7%-1.5%
3M Rtn-28.2%4.3%-3.5%-10.5%17.6%-6.3%-4.9%
6M Rtn-22.2%19.5%37.0%35.1%22.9%16.2%21.2%
12M Rtn-11.3%11.7%12.3%11.0%36.1%-3.2%11.4%
3Y Rtn301.2%251.4%63.8%297.4%76.4%101.7%176.6%
1M Excs Rtn-14.4%-7.3%2.0%-7.2%5.5%4.0%-2.6%
3M Excs Rtn-32.0%-0.3%-7.1%-17.4%13.6%-9.6%-8.4%
6M Excs Rtn-36.4%5.3%22.7%20.9%8.6%1.9%7.0%
12M Excs Rtn-33.4%0.2%-1.3%5.9%22.8%-15.8%-0.5%
3Y Excs Rtn201.9%156.6%-11.7%220.1%2.7%23.0%89.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Server and storage systems14,1856,5704,4642,7902,621
Subsystems and accessories804554732767719
Total14,9897,1235,1963,5573,339


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity86,506,444
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-1.8%
Average Daily Volume26,013,262
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.33
Basic Shares Quantity595,624,000
Short % of Basic Shares14.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/23/2025-8.7%0.4%-39.9%
8/5/2025-18.3%-18.9%-28.9%
4/29/2025-11.5%-8.5%14.3%
2/11/20252.8%56.0%1.2%
11/5/2024-18.1%-21.7%48.5%
8/6/2024-20.1%-8.0%-32.8%
4/30/2024-14.0%-4.6%-3.6%
1/18/202435.9%52.7%157.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111316
# Negative13118
Median Positive12.5%16.9%23.5%
Median Negative-10.2%-7.7%-18.1%
Max Positive35.9%56.0%157.9%
Max Negative-20.1%-21.7%-39.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025828202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-Q 12/31/2024
9302024225202510-Q 9/30/2024
6302024225202510-K 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023202202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023828202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022203202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022829202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-Q 12/31/2021

Industry Resources

Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources
The Verge
TechRadar
Tom’s Hardware
PCMag
CNET