Tearsheet

Super Micro Computer (SMCI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.68 | Market Cap: $20.1 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Super Micro Computer (SMCI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $33.68
Market Cap: $20.1 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and AI Chips.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
Short seller report
Hindenburg Research report on 8/27/2024.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and AI Chips.
1 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
2 Short seller report
Hindenburg Research report on 8/27/2024.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SMCI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock experienced a significant decline around August 2025 due to several key factors. While the requested end date is December 4, 2025, the most impactful events causing a substantial drop occurred in August 2025, primarily related to its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings and subsequent outlook. Here are the key points for why SMCI stock moved by approximately -18.9% during the specified period: 1. Fiscal Q4 2025 Earnings Missed Expectations. Supermicro reported its fiscal Q4 2025 revenue of $5.76 billion, which was below analyst expectations of $5.89 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed consensus estimates, coming in at $0.41 compared to an expected $0.44. This disappointing financial performance for the quarter, which ended June 30, 2025, significantly impacted investor confidence. 2. Lowered Full-Year FY2026 Revenue Guidance. The company's forecast for full-year FY2026 revenue, while above Wall Street's $30 billion estimate at $33 billion, was a sharp reduction from a previous projection of $40 billion made in February 2025. This "guidance reset" hit investor sentiment hard, as it indicated a significant slowdown from earlier ambitious targets.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SMCI Return32%39%87%246%7%8%1271%
Peers Return16%5%-16%34%5%3%48%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SMCI Win Rate58%58%50%58%42%60% 
Peers Win Rate45%50%33%52%42%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SMCI Max Drawdown-33%-2%-21%-14%-37%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-34%-10%-30%-6%-10%-22% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MKSI, OLED, BMI, AVT, BGIN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSMCIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-34.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven52.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven120 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-45.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven84.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven82 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-59.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven147.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven440 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-66.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven196.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven404 days1480 days

Compare to MKSI, OLED, BMI, AVT, BGIN


In The Past

Super Micro Computer's stock fell -34.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/7/2023. A -34.5% loss requires a 52.6% gain to breakeven.

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About Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SMCI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
0.9%0.9%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.8%0.8%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.3%3.3%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.1%5.1%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
4.0%4.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Super Micro Computer

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SMCIMKSIOLEDBMIAVTBGINMedian
NameSuper Mi.MKS Universa.Badger M.Avnet BGIN Blo. 
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Growth & Margins

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Valuation

SMCIMKSIOLEDBMIAVTBGINMedian
NameSuper Mi.MKS Universa.Badger M.Avnet BGIN Blo. 
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Returns

SMCIMKSIOLEDBMIAVTBGINMedian
NameSuper Mi.MKS Universa.Badger M.Avnet BGIN Blo. 
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Server and storage systems14,1856,5704,4642,7902,621
Subsystems and accessories804554732767719
Total14,9897,1235,1963,5573,339


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity88,043,720
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202514.6%
Average Daily Volume33,020,975
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.67
Basic Shares Quantity595,624,000
Short % of Basic Shares14.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025828202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-Q 12/31/2024
9302024225202510-Q 9/30/2024
6302024225202510-K 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023202202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023828202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022203202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022829202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-Q 12/31/2021

Industry Resources

Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources
The Verge
TechRadar
Tom’s Hardware
PCMag
CNET