Simmons First National (SFNC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.705 | Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Regional Banks
Simmons First National (SFNC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.705Market Cap: $2.6 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Regional Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -83% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -80% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 54x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 831%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 754% | Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 11% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -93%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -35%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -434% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.1%, FCF Yield is 14% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 1514% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Digital Payments. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -83% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 831%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 754% |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.1%, FCF Yield is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, and Digital Payments. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -80% |
| Moderate capital ratioTier 1 Capital / Risk Wtd Assets RatioTier 1 Capital / Risk-Weighted Assets is a common measure of financial strength for a bank. It reflects how much equity there is relative to assets where assets are weighted based on riskiness. Low ratios indicate the bank is highly vulnerable to even small changes in the value of their risk assets. is 11% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 54x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -93%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -35%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -434% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 1514% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -16% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SFNC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate -8.5% stock movement for Simmons First National (SFNC) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Significant Net Loss in Q3 2025 Due to Strategic Balance Sheet Repositioning
Simmons First National reported a substantial net loss of $562.8 million for the third quarter of 2025. This was primarily attributed to a strategic repositioning of its balance sheet, which involved the sale of approximately $2.4 billion in low-yielding investment securities, resulting in a significant after-tax loss of around $626 million.
2. Missed Revenue Expectations in Q3 2025
The company's reported revenue for Q3 2025, at -$569.5 million, significantly fell short of Wall Street analyst estimates of -$150.5 million. Although adjusted revenue was closer to expectations, the GAAP revenue was substantially negative due to the aforementioned securities loss.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SFNC Return | -16% | 40% | -25% | -4% | 17% | -14% | -14% |
| Peers Return | -2% | 12% | -18% | 18% | 1% | 19% | 28% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SFNC Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 25% | 42% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 22% | 25% | 28% | 35% | 27% | 51% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SFNC Max Drawdown | -45% | 0% | -31% | -32% | -17% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -2% | -23% | -16% | -10% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SFNC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -56.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 130.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -46.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 254 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -32.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -43.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1747 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NEWT, ATLO, AVBC, LSBK, NU
In The Past
Simmons First National's stock fell -56.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/11/2021. A -56.6% loss requires a 130.6% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SFNC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 03312020 | SFNC | Simmons First National | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | -13.4% | 66.9% | -21.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.1% | -0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.7% | -7.7% | -11.0% |
| 03312020 | SFNC | Simmons First National | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | -13.4% | 66.9% | -21.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Simmons First National
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.5 |
| Rev LTM | 75 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | 12 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 16 |
| CFO LTM | 12 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 18 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 31.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 24.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 27.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.5 |
| P/S | 5.0 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/CFO | 7.2 |
| Total Yield | 8.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | -0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 1.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 5.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -70.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Community and Commercial Banking | 771 | 861 | 791 | ||
| Other | 34 | ||||
| Single Segment | 875 | 767 | |||
| Total | 806 | 875 | 767 | 861 | 791 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Community and Commercial Banking | 165 | ||||
| Other | 10 | ||||
| Total | 175 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Community and Commercial Banking | 27,339 | ||||
| Other | 7 | ||||
| Total | 27,346 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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