ResMed (RMD)
Market Price (3/9/2026): $252.9 | Market Cap: $36.9 BilSector: Health Care | Industry: Health Care Equipment
ResMed (RMD)
Market Price (3/9/2026): $252.9Market Cap: $36.9 BilSector: Health CareIndustry: Health Care Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 34% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -49% | Key risksRMD key risks include [1] the erosion of market share gains as a key competitor resolves its product recall and [2] new liabilities and regulatory challenges related to its increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) in products. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Remote Patient Monitoring, Health Data Analytics, and AI in Healthcare Management. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 34% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include Remote Patient Monitoring, Health Data Analytics, and AI in Healthcare Management. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -49% |
| Key risksRMD key risks include [1] the erosion of market share gains as a key competitor resolves its product recall and [2] new liabilities and regulatory challenges related to its increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) in products. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. ResMed demonstrated strong financial performance in its first two fiscal quarters of 2026.
For Q1 FY2026, reported on October 31, 2025, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) increased by 15.9% to $2.55, and revenues grew 9.1% to $1.34 billion, both exceeding analyst estimates. In Q2 FY2026, announced on January 29, 2026, the company reported an adjusted EPS of $2.81, a 15.6% year-over-year increase that surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.59%, with revenues climbing 11% to $1.42 billion, outperforming estimates by 2.30%.
2. Concerns over the impact of GLP-1 medications and increased competition from Philips created headwinds.
The growing adoption of GLP-1 weight loss drugs poses a potential medium-term disruption to ResMed's core PAP (Positive Airway Pressure) device volumes, raising significant questions about future market share and financial performance. Additionally, the re-entry of competitor Philips into the U.S. market contributes to increased competitive pressure.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.9% change in RMD stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -4.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 255.24 | 252.87 | -0.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,257 | 5,398 | 2.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.4% | 27.5% | 0.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.9 | 24.8 | -4.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 146 | 146 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.9% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RMD | -0.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | 30.8% |
| Sector (XLV) | -3.1% | 41.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.5% change in RMD stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/8/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 273.23 | 252.87 | -7.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,146 | 5,398 | 4.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 27.2% | 27.5% | 1.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.6 | 24.8 | -13.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 146 | 146 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RMD | -7.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.5% | 26.7% |
| Sector (XLV) | 11.6% | 44.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 9.3% change in RMD stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 231.44 | 252.87 | 9.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,927 | 5,398 | 9.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.3% | 27.5% | 8.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.2 | 24.8 | -8.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 147 | 146 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 9.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RMD | 9.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.2% | 46.2% |
| Sector (XLV) | 3.9% | 48.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 22.1% change in RMD stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/8/2026 was primarily driven by a 43.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3082026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 207.08 | 252.87 | 22.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,763 | 5,398 | 43.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 21.5% | 27.5% | 28.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 37.5 | 24.8 | -33.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 147 | 146 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 22.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/8/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RMD | 22.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 76.0% | 35.4% |
| Sector (XLV) | 25.7% | 37.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RMD Return | 23% | -19% | -17% | 34% | 6% | 6% | 26% |
| Peers Return | 0% | -11% | -12% | 15% | -13% | -9% | -29% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RMD Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 48% | 48% | 50% | 43% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RMD Max Drawdown | -15% | -26% | -35% | -4% | -10% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -29% | -29% | -12% | -26% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: INSP, INGN, MDT, SYK, BDX. See RMD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RMD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -35.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 94 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 133 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -45.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 466 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to INSP, INGN, MDT, SYK, BDX
In The Past
ResMed's stock fell -54.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/8/2021. A -54.7% loss requires a 120.8% gain to breakeven.
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About ResMed (RMD)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for ResMed:
- Dexcom for sleep and breathing disorders. (Similar focus on specialized medical devices, consumables, and data management for chronic conditions.)
- Insulet for sleep apnea. (Like Insulet provides insulin pumps and ongoing supplies for diabetes, ResMed offers CPAP machines and supplies for sleep apnea.)
- The Gillette of sleep apnea devices. (Emphasizes the recurring revenue model from selling essential masks and accessories after the initial device purchase.)
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html- Sleep Apnea Devices: A range of devices, including CPAP and APAP machines, designed to deliver therapy for obstructive sleep apnea.
- CPAP Mask Systems: Various types of masks that interface with sleep apnea devices, providing comfort and an effective seal for therapy delivery.
- Ventilators & Respiratory Care Devices: Devices for both invasive and non-invasive ventilation, addressing chronic respiratory diseases and critical care needs.
- Digital Health & Software Solutions: Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) platforms and connected care solutions for remote patient monitoring, data management, and therapy management in sleep and respiratory care.
AI Analysis | Feedback
ResMed (symbol: RMD) primarily sells its medical devices and software solutions to other companies (Business-to-Business, or B2B) rather than directly to individual consumers. These customer companies then provide ResMed's products and services to patients.
ResMed's major customers generally fall into the following categories:
- Home Medical Equipment (HME) and Durable Medical Equipment (DME) Providers: These companies are the primary channel through which ResMed's sleep apnea, COPD, and other respiratory care products (e.g., CPAP machines, masks, ventilators) reach patients in their homes. They handle sales, rentals, and often insurance billing and patient support.
- Hospitals and Other Healthcare Facilities: For acute and chronic care settings, particularly for hospital-grade ventilators and specialized respiratory devices, ResMed sells directly to hospitals, skilled nursing facilities, and other clinical institutions.
- Distributors: In certain markets or for specific product lines, ResMed may sell to large medical distributors who then supply HME providers or healthcare facilities.
While ResMed does not typically disclose specific customer names or their percentage of revenue due to the fragmented nature of the HME market and competitive reasons, the largest publicly traded HME providers in major markets (such as the U.S.) would logically be significant purchasers of ResMed's products. Based on their market presence and scale, the following public companies are strong candidates for being major customers:
- AdaptHealth Corp. (symbol: AHCO)
- Owens & Minor, Inc. (symbol: OMI) - through its ownership of Apria Healthcare Group Inc.
- Linde plc (symbol: LIN) - through its ownership of Lincare Holdings Inc.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Michael "Mick" Farrell, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board
Michael "Mick" Farrell was appointed ResMed's CEO in March 2013 and became Chairman of the Board in January 2023. He joined ResMed in 2000, holding various senior roles including President of the Americas region from 2011 to 2013 and Senior Vice President of the global sleep apnea business unit from 2007 to 2011. Before joining ResMed, Mick worked in management consulting, biotechnology, chemicals, and metals manufacturing at companies such as Arthur D. Little, Sanofi Genzyme, Dow Chemical, and BHP. He also serves on the board of directors of Zimmer Biomet (NYSE: ZBH), a public medical technology company.
Brett Sandercock, Chief Financial Officer
Brett Sandercock was appointed Chief Financial Officer in January 2006. He joined ResMed's finance department in 1998 and previously served as Vice President of Treasury and Finance from November 2004 to December 2005, and Group Accountant and Controller from 1998 to 2004. Prior to ResMed, Brett was a manager of financial accounting and group reporting at Norton Abrasives, a division of Saint-Gobain, and held finance and accounting roles at Health Care of Australia. He also worked at Pricewaterhouse Coopers in Sydney from 1989 to 1994, specializing in audits. From June 2019 to August 2021, he served as non-executive chairman of the board of directors of Osteopore Limited (ASX: OSX), an Australian- and Singapore-based medical technology company.
Michael Rider, Chief Legal Officer
Michael Rider was appointed Chief Legal Officer in July 2023. He joined ResMed in June 2012, and his prior roles include Senior Vice President, Deputy Global General Counsel, and Legal Business Partner for ResMed's Sleep & Respiratory Care team from July 2019 to June 2023, and Vice President and General Counsel-Americas. Michael has nearly 40 years of legal experience.
Vered Keisar, Chief People Officer
Vered Keisar was appointed ResMed's Chief People Officer in March 2021. In this role, she is responsible for driving the company's global culture and people strategy.
Justin Leong, Chief Product Officer
Justin Leong was appointed Chief Product Officer in November 2023. Prior to this role, he served as President of Asia and Latin America for ResMed. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce and a Bachelor of Laws from the University of New South Wales, Sydney, and a Master of Business Administration from the Harvard Business School.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to ResMed's business include an intensely competitive market, potential supply chain disruptions, and the evolving regulatory landscape.
- Competitive Landscape and Market Normalization: ResMed operates in a highly competitive respiratory care device market, requiring continuous innovation and product differentiation to maintain its market position and profitability. The benefits gained from a competitor's product recall could be challenged if competitors resolve their issues swiftly or if new private competitors intensify the market, potentially leading to pricing concessions.
- Supply Chain Disruptions: The company's complex manufacturing and supply chain processes are susceptible to disruptions, quality control issues, and component shortages, particularly for semiconductor chips critical for its connected devices. Such disruptions have previously impacted sales and can lead to increased costs or delayed product launches, affecting financial performance and competitive positioning. ResMed is actively working to diversify its supply chain and carry more inventory to mitigate these vulnerabilities.
- Regulatory and Compliance Risks: As a medical device company, ResMed is subject to extensive and rapidly changing U.S. federal, state, local, and international regulations. Non-compliance can result in product recalls, substantial fines, and criminal charges. Additionally, the increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) in ResMed's products introduces new risks related to flawed algorithms, biased data, and evolving AI regulations, which could necessitate product modifications or lead to negative financial impacts.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The rise and increasing adoption of GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs (such as Ozempic, Wegovy, and Zepbound) for weight loss presents a clear emerging threat. As obesity is a primary risk factor for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), significant and sustained weight loss achieved through these medications has the potential to reduce the incidence and severity of OSA, thereby diminishing the long-term addressable market for ResMed's core CPAP devices and associated therapies.
AI Analysis | Feedback
ResMed Inc. (RMD) operates in significant addressable markets for its main products and services, primarily focusing on sleep apnea and respiratory care.Sleep Apnea Devices
The global addressable market for sleep apnea devices is projected to grow from USD 9.7 billion in 2025 to USD 24.4 billion by 2035. Another estimate places the global sleep apnea devices market size at USD 7.11 billion in 2025, with a projected increase to approximately USD 13.18 billion by 2034, growing at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2025 to 2034. The Sleep Therapy Devices and Diagnostics market was valued at USD 6.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 8.9 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 7.4%. In the United States, the sleep apnea devices market size was valued at USD 2.44 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach around USD 4.56 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 7.18% from 2025 to 2034. Globally, approximately 2.3 billion people suffer from sleep and breathing disorders, yet the sleep apnea market is only 20% penetrated in the U.S. and 5% in Europe.Respiratory Care Devices (including COPD)
The global therapeutic respiratory devices market was estimated at USD 12.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 18.4 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.8% from 2024 to 2030. The global respiratory care market is anticipated to reach USD 55.67 billion by 2032. North America is expected to hold a dominant 43.6% share of the global respiratory care market in 2025. More specifically for respiratory care devices, the global market is projected to reach USD 60.5 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 9.0%. The U.S. Respiratory Care Devices Market is projected to be valued at USD 8.0 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 16.5 billion in 2034, growing at a CAGR of 8.5%. For Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) treatment, the global market was valued at USD 19.8 billion in 2021 and is anticipated to exceed USD 30.4 billion by the end of 2031, with a CAGR of 4.4% from 2022 to 2031. North America represented approximately 40% of the global COPD treatment market in 2021. Another source indicates the global COPD market size was valued at USD 22.32 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 34.30 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.4% during 2025–2034. ResMed highlights a study estimating a 23% increase in COPD globally by 2050, representing 600 million patients.AI Analysis | Feedback
ResMed (RMD) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives, as outlined in its 2030 Strategy and recent earnings commentary:
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Growth in the Core Sleep Apnea Franchise: ResMed plans to differentiate and expand its leading position in the sleep apnea market by introducing new product innovations, including advanced mask platforms and AI/ML-driven technology improvements in CPAP devices. This focus also extends to driving mask and accessory resupply through education and execution.
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Expansion into Broader Sleep and Breathing Health Markets: The company is actively capitalizing on opportunities in adjacent markets beyond traditional sleep apnea, such as insomnia and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). This strategic expansion aims to address a wider patient population with sleep and breathing issues.
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Investment in an Integrated Digital Ecosystem and AI-Powered Solutions: ResMed is significantly investing approximately 7% of its revenue into R&D to create an integrated digital ecosystem for home health technology. This includes developing advanced cloud-connected device platforms, digital health software, and deploying AI-powered patient support tools to enhance patient engagement, adherence, and outcomes. The company leverages data from platforms like AirView™ and myAir™ and integrates with consumer wearables to optimize patient care.
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Geographic Expansion and Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Market Penetration: ResMed is accelerating its growth in direct-to-consumer markets globally, specifically mentioning regions such as China, India, Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. This push aims to expand market reach and access to its products and services.
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Strategic Acquisitions and Operational Efficiencies: The company has made strategic tuck-in acquisitions, such as VirtuOx, which contribute to revenue growth and enhance diagnostic and therapeutic technologies. Additionally, ResMed is committed to operational excellence, focusing on improving gross margins through procurement, manufacturing, and logistics efficiencies, which supports profitability and allows for continued investment in growth areas.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- ResMed allocated approximately $1.295 billion to share repurchases over the past three years, representing 37% of its total capital allocation of $3.5 billion.
- The company resumed its share buyback program in December 2023 after a four-year pause.
- Share repurchase activity is planned to increase from $100 million per quarter to $150 million per quarter for fiscal year 2026.
Share Issuance
- In October 2025, ResMed reported a net decrease of 3,891,110 CHESS Depositary Interests (CDIs) due to transfers between CDIs and common stock on the NYSE.
- New share issues, primarily related to stock options, restricted stock units, and employee stock purchase plans, contributed to an increase in non-CDI securities.
- Net proceeds from the issuance of common stock were $8.205 million in Q1 FY2026 (ended September 30, 2025) and $8.383 million in Q1 FY2025 (ended September 30, 2024).
Outbound Investments
- Mergers and acquisitions constituted 26% of ResMed's $3.5 billion capital allocation over the past three years.
- Recent acquisitions include VirtuOx in May 2025, an independent diagnostic testing facility, and Somnoware in July 2023, a leader in sleep and respiratory care diagnostics software.
- ResMed's strategy emphasizes a disciplined approach to "tuck-in acquisitions" to enhance its ecosystem, with other recent examples including Inhealthcare (June 2024), mementor GmbH (August 2022), and Ectosense (October 2021).
Capital Expenditures
- ResMed's capital expenditures averaged $109.3 million annually from fiscal years 2021 to 2025.
- Capital expenditures peaked at $134.8 million in June 2022 and reached a five-year low of $89.865 million in June 2025.
- The company is making strategic investments in U.S. manufacturing and distribution, including a new facility in Indianapolis expected by 2027 and a $30 million facility in Calabasas, California, opened earlier in 2025, to enhance capacity and proximity to customers.
Latest Trefis Analyses
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| 02272026 | CHE | Chemed | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | LLY | Eli Lilly | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | HAE | Haemonetics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | IQV | IQVIA | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.1% | 7.1% | -3.0% |
| 04302024 | RMD | ResMed | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 14.7% | 11.6% | -14.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 129.01 |
| Mkt Cap | 42.3 |
| Rev LTM | 13,661 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,473 |
| FCF LTM | 2,204 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,053 |
| CFO LTM | 2,654 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,490 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 42.3 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | 19.3 |
| P/E | 25.0 |
| P/CFO | 15.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -10.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -9.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -0.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -13.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -29.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -71.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sleep and Breathing Health | 4,101 | 3,725 | 3,177 | 2,823 | 2,602 |
| Residential Care Software | 584 | 498 | 401 | 374 | 357 |
| Total | 4,685 | 4,223 | 3,578 | 3,197 | 2,959 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sleep and Breathing Health | 1,681 | 1,447 | 1,312 | 1,037 | |
| Residential Care Software | 154 | 116 | 93 | 93 | |
| Acquisition related expenses | 0 | -11 | -2 | ||
| Masks with magnets field safety notification expenses | -6 | 0 | |||
| Astral field safety notification expenses | -8 | 0 | |||
| Restructuring expenses | -64 | -9 | -9 | ||
| Amortization of acquired intangible assets | -79 | -72 | -71 | -76 | |
| Corporate costs | -358 | -338 | -332 | -141 | |
| Total | 1,320 | 1,132 | 1,000 | 904 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $252.87 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 36.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/02/1995 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -13.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $254.47 | $259.59 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -0.6% | -2.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 26.5% | 25.8% |
| Downside Capture | 92.76 | 72.99 |
| Upside Capture | 96.64 | 70.17 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 29.8% | 47.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.60 | 0.76 | 0.81 | 0.55 | 0.62 | 0.76 |
| Up Beta | -0.20 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 0.24 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| Down Beta | 0.76 | 0.86 | 0.54 | 0.24 | 0.52 | 0.46 |
| Up Capture | 84% | 114% | 114% | 56% | 57% | 70% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 25 | 35 | 64 | 129 | 397 |
| Down Capture | 74% | 62% | 112% | 95% | 77% | 101% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 16 | 26 | 60 | 122 | 355 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RMD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMD | 14.0% | 25.9% | 0.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 3.4% | 17.5% | 0.04 | 49.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.4% | 19.2% | 0.66 | 47.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 77.1% | 26.1% | 2.17 | 11.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.6% | 17.1% | 0.89 | 19.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.1% | 16.6% | 0.01 | 45.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -24.9% | 45.6% | -0.49 | 14.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RMD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMD | 6.2% | 31.1% | 0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 7.6% | 14.5% | 0.34 | 45.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.0% | 17.0% | 0.60 | 44.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 17.2% | 1.14 | 12.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.9% | 19.0% | 0.51 | 9.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.0% | 18.8% | 0.17 | 39.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.5% | 56.8% | 0.34 | 16.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RMD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RMD | 17.3% | 31.4% | 0.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLV) | 10.4% | 16.5% | 0.52 | 52.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 51.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 15.1% | 15.6% | 0.80 | 9.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.0% | 17.6% | 0.43 | 15.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.1% | 20.7% | 0.26 | 41.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 65.9% | 66.8% | 1.05 | 11.9% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/29/2026 | 0.3% | 3.7% | 0.1% |
| 10/30/2025 | -2.1% | -1.0% | -0.3% |
| 7/31/2025 | 2.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| 4/23/2025 | 10.1% | 10.3% | 14.7% |
| 1/30/2025 | -8.3% | -7.9% | -9.3% |
| 10/24/2024 | 7.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% |
| 8/1/2024 | 4.2% | -0.2% | 14.5% |
| 4/25/2024 | 18.9% | 18.9% | 16.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 12 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 6.9% | 4.5% | 10.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.8% | -5.0% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 18.9% | 18.9% | 17.0% |
| Max Negative | -18.5% | -19.5% | -27.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/11/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/12/2022 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sandercock, Brett | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 241.75 | 1,000 | 241,750 | 20,910,166 | Form |
| 2 | Rider, Michael J | Global General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 241.75 | 50 | 12,088 | 2,354,887 | Form |
| 3 | Farrell, Michael J | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 251.41 | 4,991 | 1,254,796 | 117,213,917 | Form |
| 4 | Farrell, Peter C | Direct | Sell | 12042025 | 251.47 | 2,000 | 502,940 | 17,294,346 | Form | |
| 5 | Rider, Michael J | Global General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 244.16 | 50 | 12,208 | 2,390,571 | Form |
RMD Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew of 0.67x is highly unattractive. The investment thesis hinges on overcoming a Type 5 (Structural/Obsolescence) risk from GLP-1s while simultaneously fending off the re-entry of its primary competitor. The risk of permanent TAM erosion and multiple compression outweighs the potential upside from continued solid execution in the near term. The stock is priced for a stable future, but faces significant structural uncertainty.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Mature Cash CowResMed fits the 'Mature Cash Cow' archetype due to its oligopolistic market structure, strong recurring revenue from consumables, high and expanding gross margins (62.3%), and robust free cash flow generation. The business model focuses on a large, sticky installed base, prioritizing capital efficiency and pricing power.
INVESTMENT THESIS
ResMed's primary value driver is the accelerating, high-margin, recurring revenue from its Masks & Accessories segment, which is fueled by a massive and sticky installed base of patients locked into the proprietary AirView software platform. The multi-year recall of its primary competitor (Philips) allowed ResMed to capture dominant market share, creating a powerful moat based on high switching costs for the Durable Medical Equipment (DME) providers who are dependent on the platform for operational efficiency and reimbursement.
- Masks & Other revenue grew +16.1% in Q2 FY26, significantly outpacing the 8.5% growth in Devices and indicating the strength of the recurring revenue model.
- Non-GAAP Gross Margin expanded by 310 basis points year-over-year to 62.3% in Q2 FY26, driven by favorable product mix weighted towards high-margin consumables.
- The AirView platform creates high switching costs and monitors over 10 million cloud-connectable devices, a scale that competitors cannot easily replicate, securing the installed base.
- No single customer accounts for more than 10% of revenue, indicating a fragmented and stable customer base with limited pricing pressure.
PRIMARY RISK
The single greatest risk to ResMed's long-term growth is the adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs (e.g., Tirzepatide, Semaglutide), which have been clinically shown to reduce the severity of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). A new treatment paradigm where pharmaceuticals can potentially cure or significantly lessen the need for CPAP therapy in a large subset of the obese patient population threatens to structurally shrink ResMed's total addressable market (TAM).
- Late-stage clinical trial data (SURMOUNT-OSA) for Eli Lilly's Tirzepatide confirmed a statistically significant reduction in the Apnea-Hypopnea Index (AHI).
- Management acknowledged a slowdown in new patient setups in the Q2 2026 earnings call, citing the impact of GLP-1 drugs.
- Analyst consensus for new patient starts over the next 12-24 months has been revised downward by 5-7% in the last 90 days, directly linked to GLP-1 uncertainty.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| New Patient Setups / Devices Revenue Growth | Stabilization above mid-single digits (5-7% YoY) | This is the leading indicator for the impact of GLP-1 drugs on the patient funnel. A sustained trend below this level would confirm the bear case of TAM erosion. |
| Masks & Other Revenue Growth | Sustained double-digit growth (>12% YoY) | This metric reflects the health of the high-margin, recurring revenue stream from the installed base. Deceleration here would signal either competitive intrusion or a maturing base, threatening the core profit engine. |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | Remains above 62% | This is the clearest indicator of ResMed's pricing power against both DME channel pressure and the potential re-entry of Philips. Margin compression would signal the moat is eroding faster than expected. |
GLP-1 Threat vs. Ecosystem Resilience
BULL VIEW
The GLP-1 impact is a net positive, driving diagnosis and therapy adherence. The recurring revenue from the massive installed base, locked in by the AirView ecosystem, remains durable.
CORE TENSION
Can ResMed's sticky, high-margin consumables business withstand the structural threat of GLP-1 drugs potentially shrinking its total addressable market (TAM) for sleep apnea?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Management acknowledged a slowdown in new patient setups in the Q2 2026 earnings call, citing the impact of GLP-1 drugs.
BEAR VIEW
GLP-1s will structurally reduce the new patient funnel for CPAP therapy. This TAM erosion, combined with competitor re-entry, will lead to significant multiple compression.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Anytime | FDA Label Expansion for GLP-1s in OSA Watch: Official press release from FDA, Eli Lilly, or Novo Nordisk confirming Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA) as a treated indication. |
Next 3-6 Months | Philips Respironics U.S. Market Re-entry Watch: An official announcement from Philips or the FDA on the lifting of the consent decree, followed by ResMed's gross margin and market share guidance. |
Late April 2026 | Q3 FY2026 Earnings Report Watch: New Patient Setups / Devices Revenue Growth. A reading below 5% would confirm the bear thesis of TAM erosion. |
This Quarter / Next Quarter | Finalization of CMS 2026 Fee Schedule Watch: Final reimbursement rates for key CPAP product codes. Deeper cuts than proposed would pressure the DME channel. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-29 | Director Stock Sale Under 10b5-1 Plan Details: Director Peter Farrell sold stock under a pre-arranged trading plan adopted on August 12, 2025. Such pre-planned sales typically have minimal market impact. | Muted (-0.3%) $274.72 -> $273.85 |
2025-09-23 | Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference Details: ResMed participated in the Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference. The stock reaction was muted following the event, suggesting no major new disclosures. | Flat (0.4%) $273.75 -> $274.95 |
2025-10-30 | Q1 FY2026 Earnings Release Details: The company reported a 15% increase in net income and strong operating cash flow of $457 million. Despite the positive results, the stock fell as investor concerns over GLP-1s began to intensify. [2, 10] | Fell notably by -2.1% $251.66 -> $246.29 |
2025-12-08 | FDA Clearance for 'Smart Comfort' AI Device Details: ResMed announced FDA clearance for an AI-powered medical device to personalize CPAP therapy settings, reinforcing its technological lead. The stock saw a minor pullback on the day of the announcement. [5, 19] | Slight -1.4% pullback $250.04 -> $246.52 |
2026-01-29 | Q2 FY2026 Earnings Release Details: ResMed reported a beat on revenue ($1.42B vs $1.40B est.) and EPS ($2.81 vs $2.69 est.), with strong margin expansion. However, the stock was flat as management acknowledged a GLP-1-related slowdown. [1, 7] | Flat (0.3%) $257.61 -> $258.31 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock trades at Moderate volatility (1.9x S&P). However, the Neutral sentiment, Speculative valuation, and Contested moat create low conviction. We cap exposure until the structural GLP-1 headwind improves.
Diversification Alternatives
UTHR
SECTOROffers exposure to the respiratory drug market, but its core business in pulmonary hypertension is not directly threatened by GLP-1 TAM erosion like ResMed's OSA market.
ISRG
SECTORA 'best-in-class' medical device leader with a wide, defensible moat in robotic surgery. Its growth is driven by secular trends in surgery and is completely insulated from GLP-1 risk.
ResMed is a durable medical equipment leader transitioning its razor-and-blade model (high-margin masks and accessories) into a digitally-connected ecosystem, creating high switching costs for providers and patients, while navigating the perceived long-term risk of GLP-1 drugs on its core sleep apnea market.
Filter all news through the lens of GLP-1 drug impact and competitive dynamics. Is ResMed successfully reframing GLP-1s as a patient-acquisition tailwind and defending market share against a re-emerging Philips?
Data showing GLP-1 users have higher CPAP initiation and adherence rates; masks and accessories revenue growth outpacing device growth; non-GAAP gross margin expansion above 62%; competitor Philips struggling to regain market share.
Clinical data proving GLP-1s cure a significant percentage of obstructive sleep apnea patients; Philips regaining significant market share with aggressive pricing; reimbursement rate cuts for home sleep apnea devices; SaaS segment growth falling below mid-single-digits.
Short-term fluctuations in device sales (masks are the key profit driver); quarterly R&D or SG&A spending within the guided 6-7% and 19-20% of revenue ranges, respectively; individual smartwatch sleep-tracking feature announcements.
Repricing Catalyst
Reframing the GLP-1 drug narrative from a long-term headwind to a near-term tailwind. Management cites claims data showing patients on GLP-1s are ~11% more likely to initiate CPAP therapy and have over 6% higher resupply rates after three years, potentially expanding the diagnosed-and-treated market. This narrative shift, combined with sustained high-margin recurring revenue from masks, aims to re-rate the stock away from the GLP-1 discount.
Sleep & Breathing Health - Devices (The 'Razor')
$2.9B TTM (51% of Total) · 62.3% MarginWhat It Is
Cloud-connected flow generators (CPAP, APAP, BiPAP) such as the AirSense 11 series; portable devices like AirMini; Ventilators.
Who Pays & How
Durable Medical Equipment (DME) providers (e.g., McKesson, Medline, Apria) and sleep labs pay for devices which are then provided to patients. Payment is secured via patient insurance reimbursement. The cloud-connected AirView platform creates lock-in by allowing providers to monitor patient adherence, a requirement for reimbursement, making it costly and inefficient to switch to a competitor's ecosystem.
Competition
Sleep & Breathing Health - Masks & Accessories (The 'Blade')
$2.1B TTM (37% of Total) · 62.3% MarginWhat It Is
Full-face, nasal, and nasal pillow masks (e.g., AirFit series, AirTouch series); heated tubing (ClimateLine); humidifiers; replacement cushions and headgear.
Who Pays & How
Patients and their insurance providers pay for replacement masks and supplies on a recurring schedule (e.g., every 3-6 months). This is a mandatory consumable for therapy to be effective and comfortable, creating a high-margin, recurring revenue stream from the installed base of device users.
Competition
Residential Care Software (SaaS)
$0.7B TTM (12% of Total) · 62.3% MarginWhat It Is
SaaS platforms for out-of-hospital care providers, including electronic health records (EHRs), billing, and practice management solutions (e.g., Brightree, MatrixCare, MEDIFOX DAN).
Who Pays & How
Home health agencies, hospice providers, and skilled nursing facilities pay subscription fees to streamline their operations, manage patient records, and handle billing and compliance.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| FinViz |
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