Rocket Lab (RKLB)
Market Price (5/10/2026): $106.18 | Market Cap: $64.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Rocket Lab (RKLB)
Market Price (5/10/2026): $106.18Market Cap: $64.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -226 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -33% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 94x Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 104%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 414% Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -47% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6% Key risksRKLB key risks include [1] launch failures or manufacturing delays for its core Electron rocket and [2] the successful development and execution of its critical next-generation Neutron rocket program. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -226 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -33% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 94x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 104%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 414% |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -24%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -47% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.6% |
| Key risksRKLB key risks include [1] launch failures or manufacturing delays for its core Electron rocket and [2] the successful development and execution of its critical next-generation Neutron rocket program. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Record-breaking Financial Performance and Upbeat Guidance.
Rocket Lab reported record first-quarter 2026 revenue of $200.3 million, marking a 63.5% year-over-year increase and surpassing analyst estimates. Additionally, the company provided an optimistic second-quarter 2026 revenue guidance ranging from $225 million to $240 million, exceeding Wall Street forecasts and signaling continued growth momentum.
2. Significant New Contract Wins and Substantial Backlog Growth.
Rocket Lab secured its largest launch contract in company history, a multi-launch agreement with a confidential customer for five Neutron and three Electron missions spanning 2026-2029. This contributed to a record total backlog exceeding $2.2 billion, representing a 108% year-over-year increase and demonstrating robust demand for its launch and space systems. The company also booked 31 new launch contracts in Q1 2026, surpassing its total launch sales for all of 2025.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.7% change in RKLB stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 23.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 80.07 | 105.47 | 31.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 555 | 680 | 22.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 76.3 | 94.0 | 23.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 529 | 605 | -12.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 31.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RKLB | 31.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 57.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.0% | 38.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 67.5% change in RKLB stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 46.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 62.98 | 105.47 | 67.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 504 | 680 | 34.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 64.3 | 94.0 | 46.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 515 | 605 | -14.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 67.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RKLB | 67.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 54.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.4% | 43.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 384.0% change in RKLB stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 274.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.79 | 105.47 | 384.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 436 | 680 | 55.8% |
| P/S Multiple | 25.1 | 94.0 | 274.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 502 | 605 | -17.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 384.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RKLB | 384.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 43.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 33.8% | 40.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2590.6% change in RKLB stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.92 | 105.47 | 2590.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 680 | 0.0% |
| P/S Multiple | � | 94.0 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 448 | 605 | -26.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RKLB | 2590.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 43.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 81.1% | 42.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RKLB Return | 21% | -69% | 47% | 361% | 174% | 13% | 677% |
| Peers Return | -5% | -3% | -3% | 111% | 81% | 21% | 313% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 95% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RKLB Win Rate | 42% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 67% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 51% | 47% | 45% | 62% | 58% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RKLB Max Drawdown | -2% | -71% | -3% | -36% | -36% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -24% | -23% | -11% | -25% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LMT, NOC, LHX, PL, RDW.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/8/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RKLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -10.7% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.0% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 341 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 47 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -69.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 228.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 861 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Rocket Lab's stock fell -36.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 58.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | RKLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 341 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 47 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -69.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 228.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 861 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Rocket Lab's stock fell -36.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 58.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Rocket Lab (RKLB)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Analogies:
- SpaceX for small and medium-sized satellites.
- An integrated space manufacturer, like a 'Boeing for rockets and satellites'.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Rocket Lab (RKLB) offers the following major products and services:
- Electron Launch Vehicle: A small orbital launch vehicle used for deploying satellites into space.
- Neutron Launch Vehicle: A medium-class launch vehicle currently under development, designed for launching heavier payloads.
- Photon Satellite Platforms: A family of satellite platforms designed and manufactured for various on-orbit missions.
- Spacecraft Components: Designs and manufactures a range of components and subsystems for spacecraft and broader merchant applications.
- Launch Services: Provides comprehensive services for launching customer payloads into orbit, including remote launch activities.
- Space Systems Solutions: Offers integrated services covering spacecraft engineering, design, manufacturing, and on-orbit management.
- Constellation Management Services: Provides services for managing and operating satellite constellations for commercial, aerospace, and government customers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Customers of Rocket Lab (RKLB)
Based on the provided information, Rocket Lab (RKLB) serves the following major categories of customers:
- Commercial customers
- Aerospace prime contractors
- Government customers
The background information does not list specific names of customer companies within these categories.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlSir Peter Beck, President and Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board
Peter Beck founded Rocket Lab in 2006. He has served as President and CEO since July 2013 and was appointed Chairman of the Board in May 2021. Prior to founding Rocket Lab, he began his career in 1993 with an apprenticeship as a precision engineer at Fisher & Paykel. He later worked at a government research institute from 2003, focusing on advanced composite structures and materials. Beck is a self-taught rocket engineer and did not attend university. Rocket Lab received early funding from venture capital firms to support its initial growth.
Adam Spice, Chief Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer
Adam Spice has served as Rocket Lab's Chief Financial Officer since May 2018. Before joining Rocket Lab, he was the Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at MaxLinear, Inc. from 2011 to 2018. From 2009 to 2010, Mr. Spice was the Chief Financial Officer of Symwave Corporation, a venture-backed semiconductor company, until its sale to Standard Microsystems Corporation (SMSC). He also held various financial and operational executive roles at Broadcom Corporation from 2000 to 2009 and worked as a finance manager for Intel from 1996 to 2000.
Arjun Kampani, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Arjun Kampani joined Rocket Lab in April 2022. He leads the company's legal and regulatory affairs. Before Rocket Lab, Mr. Kampani was the Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Secretary at Aerojet Rocketdyne. Prior to that, he spent ten years at General Dynamics Corporation, where he served as its top mergers and acquisitions lawyer, completing over 30 acquisitions and divestitures. He also served as Vice President, General Counsel & Secretary for General Dynamics Land Systems.
Frank Klein, Chief Operations Officer
Frank Klein serves as the Chief Operations Officer at Rocket Lab.
Shaun O'Donnell, Chief Engineer-Special Programs
Shaun O'Donnell is the Chief Engineer-Special Programs at Rocket Lab, a position he assumed in October 2022 to focus on the Neutron launch vehicle development and other significant technical projects. Previously, he was the Executive Vice President, Global Operations, and was responsible for the day-to-day operations of Rocket Lab New Zealand.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Rocket Lab's business are primarily centered around the successful development and deployment of its next-generation rocket, its ongoing financial performance and path to profitability, and the inherent operational challenges and competitive pressures within the space industry.
- Neutron Rocket Development and Launch Success: Rocket Lab is making significant investments in the development of its Neutron rocket, a critical component of its strategy to expand into the medium-lift launch market and compete with larger players. Delays in testing or launch, or a failure during a test or commercial flight, could severely impact the company's credibility, jeopardize future contracts, and negatively affect its stock price and valuation. The Neutron's timeline has already seen delays, underscoring the technical and operational challenges involved.
- Financial Health and Path to Profitability: Rocket Lab currently experiences significant net losses and a high cash burn rate, driven by heavy investments in new technologies like the Neutron rocket and its vertical integration strategy. While these investments are aimed at long-term growth, the company's operating costs are increasing faster than its revenues, and achieving consistent profitability remains a challenge that may still be several years away. A failure to generate sufficient revenue to offset these expenses could adversely affect its financial condition.
- Operational Execution, including Launch Failures and Competition: As a space company, Rocket Lab faces inherent risks associated with the design, manufacturing, and launch of its rockets and spacecraft. These include potential manufacturing delays, damage during pre-launch operations, or launch failures, any of which could materially and adversely affect its operations, revenue, and financial results. Furthermore, the space launch market is increasingly competitive, with established companies like SpaceX and emerging players vying for market share. This intense competition could lead to pricing pressures and impact Rocket Lab's ability to secure contracts and maintain its market position, particularly as launch services potentially become more commoditized in the long term.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The development and potential operationalization of highly-reusable, very large launch vehicles like SpaceX's Starship, which could drastically lower the cost per kilogram to orbit and fundamentally reshape the launch market by offering an order of magnitude different cost structure for space access.
The increasing trend of vertical integration by major satellite mega-constellation operators, where they develop and launch their own satellites using proprietary launch vehicles (e.g., SpaceX's Starlink, Amazon's Project Kuiper potentially with Blue Origin), thereby reducing the addressable market for Rocket Lab's third-party launch services and satellite bus platforms.AI Analysis | Feedback
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) operates in several significant addressable markets within the global space industry, encompassing launch services and space systems solutions.
Launch Services
The company's Electron rocket is a small orbital launch vehicle, and its upcoming Neutron vehicle will serve the medium-lift segment. The global market for small launch vehicles was valued at approximately USD 1.6 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 5.1 billion by 2034, demonstrating a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12.1% from 2025 to 2034. More broadly, the global space launch services market was estimated at USD 15.2 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow to USD 35 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of around 14% during the period of 2025-2030. Another report values the global space launch services market at USD 14.94 billion in 2023, with a projection to reach USD 41.31 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 14.6% from 2024 to 2030.
Space Systems Solutions
Rocket Lab's space systems solutions include spacecraft engineering and design, spacecraft components, spacecraft manufacturing (such as the Photon satellite platforms), and on-orbit management. The global satellite manufacturing market, which includes the production of spacecraft, was estimated at USD 22.52 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 57.18 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 16.1% from 2025 to 2030. Another estimate places the global satellite manufacturing market at USD 26.26 billion in 2025, expected to reach approximately USD 101.43 billion by 2034. The global market for satellite parts and components is another key area, with an estimated size of USD 40.66 billion in 2025, forecasted to reach USD 68.05 billion by 2031. The global satellite and spacecraft subsystem market was valued at USD 30.40 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach USD 45.00 billion by 2030.
Constellation Management Services
The company also provides constellation management services. The global commercial satellite constellations market was valued at USD 12.6 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 43.1 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 13.09% from 2023 to 2032. Similarly, the global satellite mega constellations market size was valued at USD 5.56 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 40.72 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 24.11% from 2026–2034.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Rocket Lab (RKLB) is poised for significant future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Expansion of Space Systems Segment: The Space Systems segment, encompassing spacecraft manufacturing (such as the Photon satellite platform), components, and on-orbit management solutions, is increasingly becoming a substantial revenue generator. This diversification beyond launch services allows Rocket Lab to tap into higher-margin opportunities within the expanding space economy and capture a greater share of the value chain.
- Introduction and Commercialization of the Neutron Rocket: Despite a recent delay pushing its maiden launch to Q4 2026, the Neutron medium-lift reusable rocket is anticipated to be a pivotal driver of growth. The Neutron will enable Rocket Lab to compete for larger and more lucrative contracts in the medium-lift launch market, serving customers deploying larger satellite constellations and expanding its addressable market significantly.
- Increased Electron Launch Cadence and Demand: Rocket Lab expects to continue increasing the launch frequency of its Electron rocket, which has established a strong reputation for reliability and rapid turnaround times in the small satellite launch market. Strong demand from both commercial and government customers, particularly for responsive launch services through programs like HASTE, is contributing to a growing backlog of Electron missions.
- Growth in Government and National Security Contracts: The company has secured significant contracts, including an $816 million prime contract from the Space Development Agency (SDA) for missile-tracking satellite constellations. Rocket Lab is actively positioning itself as a credible defense prime, which provides substantial and consistent revenue streams from national security space programs.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Vertical Integration: Rocket Lab's strategy includes targeted acquisitions and continued vertical integration to expand its manufacturing capabilities and enhance its service offerings. This approach strengthens its supply chain, allows for greater control over production, and facilitates the development of comprehensive space solutions, which can lead to new revenue opportunities and improved margins.
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Share Repurchases
Rocket Lab has not reported significant share repurchases over the last 3-5 years. The company's share buybacks were $0.00 as of February 24, 2026.
Share Issuance
- Rocket Lab went public in August 2021 through a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) merger, which added $777 million in gross cash.
- In September 2025, the company launched an at-the-market stock offering program, authorizing the sale of up to $750 million in shares to fund expansion in launch operations and semiconductor manufacturing.
- Shares outstanding have increased year-over-year, reaching 0.531 billion in December 2025, a 7% increase from 2024.
Inbound Investments
- The company gained $777 million in gross cash from its SPAC merger in August 2021.
- Rocket Lab received a $24.35 million grant from the United States Space Force in September 2021 and a $23.9 million grant from the U.S. Department of Commerce in November 2024.
- In February 2024, Rocket Lab raised $355 million in an undisclosed funding round to strengthen financial stability and support ongoing projects.
Outbound Investments
- Rocket Lab acquired Advanced Solutions, Inc. (ASI) in October 2021 for $40 million, Planetary Systems Corporation (PSC) in December 2021 for $81.4 million, and SolAero Holdings, Inc. in January 2022 for $80 million. These acquisitions focused on vertical integration to reduce lead times and unit costs for components like flight software, separation systems, and solar power products.
- In March 2025, Rocket Lab acquired Mynaric AG, a developer of optical communication terminals, and in August 2025, it acquired GEOST, LLC for $275 million to enhance payload abilities.
Capital Expenditures
- Rocket Lab's capital expenditures for fiscal year 2024 were $67.1 million, marking a significant increase of 2264.06% from the previous year.
- The company allocated between $250 million and $300 million of the cash from its public listing towards the development of its Neutron 8-ton payload class launch vehicle.
- Capital expenditures also include significant investments in infrastructure, such as breaking ground for a Neutron manufacturing facility and launch infrastructure at Wallops Island, Virginia, in April 2022, and opening an engine test facility for the Archimedes engine at NASA's Stennis Space Center in November 2022.
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 202.56 |
| Mkt Cap | 59.9 |
| Rev LTM | 11,578 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,069 |
| FCF LTM | 1,320 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 983 |
| CFO LTM | 1,594 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,231 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 26.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -10.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -6.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 59.9 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 3.2 |
| P/EBIT | 2.6 |
| P/E | 5.0 |
| P/CFO | 16.3 |
| Total Yield | 2.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 40.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 27.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 167.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -9.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 21.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 103.6% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $105.47 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 60.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/24/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $73.96 | $63.01 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 42.6% | 67.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 107.2% | 90.4% |
| Downside Capture | 1.21 | 1.21 |
| Upside Capture | 368.35 | 367.74 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 57.5% | 43.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.51 | 3.43 | 3.30 | 3.77 | 2.93 | 2.30 |
| Up Beta | 2.26 | 1.41 | 1.86 | 1.40 | 1.85 | 1.65 |
| Down Beta | 13.37 | 5.36 | 3.94 | 4.55 | 3.76 | 2.25 |
| Up Capture | 317% | 510% | 451% | 1037% | 1362% | 29280% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 25 | 34 | 66 | 140 | 395 |
| Down Capture | 163% | 319% | 308% | 259% | 180% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 18 | 30 | 58 | 110 | 350 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RKLB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKLB | 336.8% | 90.7% | 2.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 31.0% | 15.6% | 1.53 | 40.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.0% | 12.5% | 1.83 | 44.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.8% | 27.0% | 1.22 | 17.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.6% | 18.0% | 2.21 | 2.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.0% | 13.5% | 0.66 | 17.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.4% | 42.1% | -0.34 | 33.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RKLB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKLB | 56.1% | 78.9% | 0.90 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.7% | 17.4% | 0.57 | 40.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 43.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.9% | 17.9% | 0.95 | 11.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 13.8% | 19.1% | 0.59 | 7.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 29.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.0% | 0.34 | 25.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RKLB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKLB | 25.8% | 78.0% | 0.88 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.9% | 20.0% | 0.61 | 39.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 43.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.69 | 11.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 17.8% | 0.44 | 6.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.8% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 28.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.8% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 23.8% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | 34.2% | ||
| 2/26/2026 | -4.9% | -3.6% | -16.1% |
| 11/10/2025 | -1.3% | -16.6% | 22.4% |
| 8/7/2025 | 1.1% | -3.2% | 8.0% |
| 5/8/2025 | -11.2% | 9.2% | 28.3% |
| 2/27/2025 | 3.3% | -5.9% | -6.1% |
| 11/12/2024 | 28.4% | 39.8% | 54.0% |
| 8/8/2024 | 12.6% | 22.2% | 28.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 12.3% | 5.5% | 22.4% |
| Median Negative | -2.6% | -7.2% | -12.0% |
| Max Positive | 37.3% | 39.8% | 54.0% |
| Max Negative | -11.2% | -16.6% | -20.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/11/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saintil, Merline | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 75.04 | 18,126 | 1,360,171 | 19,653,149 | Form | |
| 2 | Klein, Frank | Chief Operations Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 71.95 | 36,768 | 2,645,441 | 78,298,150 | Form |
| 3 | Kampani, Arjun | SVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 71.95 | 23,711 | 1,705,907 | 28,633,566 | Form |
| 4 | Spice, Adam C | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 69.59 | 62,744 | 4,366,349 | 90,245,865 | Form |
| 5 | Klein, Frank | Chief Operations Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 69.59 | 44,482 | 3,095,499 | 78,289,012 | Form |
RKLB Trade Sentinel
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Rocket Lab scores a 6, reflecting a 'Market Weight' position. The investment thesis offers compelling, asymmetric upside driven by the transformative Neutron rocket catalyst. This is supported by the exceptionally strong and accelerating backlog, a clear leading indicator of robust demand. However, the high conviction is tempered by the speculative nature of the valuation, which is entirely predicated on the successful, on-time execution of this single binary event. The position is a hold, with a plan to accumulate should any non-thesis-breaking volatility occur.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Primary: 'Binary Innovator' (Type D) / Secondary: 'High-Beta Compounder' (Type A)The company's valuation and investment thesis are overwhelmingly dependent on a single future catalyst: the successful launch of the Neutron rocket (Type D). This binary event is required to unlock the subsequent high-growth, compounding phase, which is driven by the rapidly expanding and higher-margin Space Systems segment (Type A).
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for a significant re-rating is the successful inaugural launch of the medium-lift, reusable Neutron rocket. This validates the company's expansion strategy, unlocks a larger addressable market for satellite constellation deployment, and allows the company to better leverage its vertically integrated Space Systems division. A successful launch de-risks the business model from a niche small-launch provider to a diversified, end-to-end space infrastructure company.
- Record total backlog of $2.2 billion as of Q1 2026, indicating strong underlying demand for services.
- Space Systems revenue grew to 68% of total Q1 2026 revenue, with non-GAAP gross margins of 44.3% in the prior quarter, proving the viability of the high-margin, integrated model.
- The company has already secured five dedicated launch contracts for Neutron before its first flight, signaling early commercial adoption.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant risk is a failure to meet the Q4 2026 target for Neutron's first launch. The development of a new medium-lift rocket is exceptionally complex and capital-intensive. A material delay would postpone access to the larger TAM, increase cash burn, and allow competitors (SpaceX, Firefly) to further solidify their market positions and secure long-term contracts, potentially rendering Neutron's value proposition less competitive upon arrival.
- Management has described the Q4 2026 timeline as an 'aggressive schedule'.
- Development costs are substantial at ~$15M per quarter, and a delay would extend this period of heavy cash burn.
- The Neutron program has already been delayed from its original 2024 target, indicating the complexity of the project.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Neutron First Launch Timeline | On track for Q4 2026 | This is the single most important catalyst for the investment thesis. Any slip directly impacts the company's ability to address its larger TAM and is the primary bear case. |
| Total Backlog Growth | >$2.5B | The backlog is the best leading indicator of future revenue and market share gains across both segments. Continued acceleration de-risks forward estimates. |
| Space Systems Gross Margin | Sustained > 40% | Confirms that the company's primary profit engine is scaling effectively, which is critical for achieving future profitability and funding the capital-intensive launch business. |
The Neutron Rocket: Binary Catalyst vs. Balance Sheet Anchor
BULL VIEW
A successful Neutron launch validates the growth thesis, expands the TAM, and accelerates the path to profitability, justifying the current speculative valuation.
CORE TENSION
Bulls see the Q4 2026 Neutron launch as a valuation-unlocking catalyst. Bears see it as a high-risk project burning cash with a history of delays.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Management has already delayed Neutron from 2024 to Q4 2026 and describes the current timeline as an 'aggressive schedule', giving the Bear case more weight.
BEAR VIEW
Further delays to Neutron beyond Q4 2026 will extend heavy cash burn, damage credibility, and allow competitors to capture the medium-lift market.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Early August 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Any change to Neutron's 'Q4 2026' first launch timeline. Language shifting to 'no earlier than Q1 2027' would be a material negative signal. |
June 2026 | Competitor Launch: Firefly Aerospace 'VICTUS HAZE' Mission Watch: Successful orbital insertion of Firefly's Alpha Block 2. A success would validate a key competitor's ability to compete for NSSL contracts. |
Early November 2026 | Q3 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Watch for Q3 Space Systems gross margin to stay above 35% and for FY2026 revenue guidance to be maintained or raised from Q2 levels. |
H2 2026 | NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 Task Order Announcement Watch: Binary outcome: whether Rocket Lab is named as a launch provider in the next tranche of NSSL task orders for FY27 missions. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Nov 10, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Details: Company reported EPS of -$0.03, beating estimates of -$0.05, on revenue of $155.08M, also a beat. The muted reaction suggests results were in line with expectations. [16] | Flat (0.5%) $51.64 -> $51.90 |
Dec 19, 2025 | Major Government Contract Award Details: The significant stock move was likely due to the announcement of a large government contract, such as the $515M Space Development Agency deal mentioned in filings. | Surged +17.7% $59.92 -> $70.52 |
Jan 6, 2026 | Positive Development Announcement Details: Stock likely reacted to a significant company announcement, such as a milestone in the Neutron development program or a major customer agreement. | Surged +10.1% $78.14 -> $86.03 |
Feb 26, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Details: Reported record of 7 launches in the quarter and 44.3% non-GAAP gross margin for Space Systems. Negative reaction suggests concerns over forward guidance or cash burn. | Fell notably by 4.9% $72.65 -> $69.10 |
Apr 16, 2026 | Major Contract Win Speculation Details: Stock surged on high volume, likely driven by the announcement of a significant new contract, consistent with data mentioning a record Q1 for new deals. | Surged +12.7% $73.60 -> $82.93 |
May 7, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Details: Reported record revenue of $200.3M (+63.5% YoY) and a record backlog of $2.2B. Despite the beat, the stock fell, likely on profitability concerns. | Crashed 7.2% $84.65 -> $78.58 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (7.0x S&P). The Bearish sentiment driven by cash burn and execution risk forces a Conservative sizing to manage drawdown risk.
Diversification Alternatives
NOC
SECTORUnlike RKLB, Northrop Grumman is highly profitable, diversified across multiple defense segments, and not dependent on a single binary product launch for its thesis. [2]
LMT
SECTORLockheed Martin is a blue-chip defense leader, highly profitable, and a direct competitor via its ULA joint venture. It offers exposure to space with less volatility. [1, 6]
Rocket Lab is re-rating from a niche small-satellite launcher into a vertically integrated, end-to-end space company, driven by the expansion of its high-margin Space Systems segment and the anticipated debut of its much larger, reusable Neutron rocket.
Filter all news through the lens of the Neutron rocket's development timeline and the growth and margin expansion of the Space Systems business.
Successful first launch of Neutron rocket; major contract wins for Neutron from commercial constellation or government customers; Space Systems revenue growth >50% YoY with sustained gross margins >40%; evidence of successful vertical integration from recent acquisitions (Mynaric, Motiv) driving cost savings or new capabilities.
Further significant delays to Neutron's first launch beyond Q4 2026; major launch failure of Electron impacting customer confidence; significant decline in the $2.2B backlog; evidence that SpaceX's rideshare pricing is aggressively taking share in the small satellite market.
Quarterly fluctuations in the number of Electron launches; minor delays in individual satellite component deliveries; competitor announcements of new small launch vehicles that have not yet reached orbit; general market commentary on the 'space economy' without specific company impact.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful development and inaugural launch of the medium-lift, reusable Neutron rocket, targeted for Q4 2026, which is designed to capture the satellite constellation deployment market. The company has already secured five dedicated Neutron launch contracts before its first flight, indicating strong commercial demand. A successful launch would significantly expand Rocket Lab's addressable market beyond the capabilities of its small Electron rocket.
Space Systems (Satellite Components & Buses)
$546800.0B TTM (68% of Total) · 44% MarginWhat It Is
Photon satellite buses, star trackers, reaction wheels, solar panels, flight software, separation systems, laser communication terminals (via Mynaric acquisition), robotic arms (via Motiv acquisition).
Who Pays & How
Government (e.g., U.S. Space Force, NASA) and commercial constellation operators (e.g., BlackSky, Varda Space Industries) pay for high-performance, flight-proven satellite components and complete spacecraft solutions to reduce their own R&D and manufacturing overhead. Vertical integration provides customers a one-stop-shop, de-risking their missions.
Competition
Launch Services (Electron & Neutron Rockets)
$254800.0B TTM (32% of Total) · % MarginWhat It Is
Electron small launch vehicle, HASTE suborbital testbed rocket, and the developmental Neutron medium-lift reusable rocket.
Who Pays & How
Commercial satellite operators and government agencies (NASA, NRO, Anduril) pay ~$7.5M per launch for dedicated, reliable access to specific orbits for their small satellites, avoiding the delays and orbit compromises of ridesharing on larger rockets.
Competition
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