Rocket Lab (RKLB)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $49.94 | Market Cap: $25.7 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Rocket Lab (RKLB)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $49.94Market Cap: $25.7 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -222 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 37x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 114% | |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -222 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -44% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 37x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 114% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -22%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -40% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.5% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RKLB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Rocket Lab (RKLB) experienced movement in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025, influenced by several key factors:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance: Rocket Lab reported record third-quarter 2025 revenue of $155 million, marking a 48% year-over-year increase, which surpassed analyst estimates. This strong top-line growth, coupled with a bullish Q4 guidance of $170-180 million and improving gross margins that reached a record 37% in Q3 (projected to hit 43-45% in the next quarter), demonstrated the company's aggressive commercial scaling across its launch services and space systems.
2. Expanding Contracts and Defense Market Penetration: The company secured new contracts with significant entities like the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and various U.S. defense agencies, which broadened its market influence and exposure to national security programs. This strategic expansion included progress on initiatives like back-to-back HASTE missions and the acquisition of Geost, positioning Rocket Lab to capture larger national security and defense contracts.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RKLB Return | - | 21% | -69% | 47% | 361% | 94% | 388% |
| Peers Return | -13% | -2% | -3% | 14% | -2% | 44% | 33% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RKLB Win Rate | 100% | 42% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 17% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 5% | 31% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RKLB Max Drawdown | - | -2% | -71% | -3% | -36% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -5% | -7% | -0% | -2% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RKLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -82.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 482.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 695 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -3.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 148 days |
Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC
In The Past
Rocket Lab's stock fell -82.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/9/2021. A -82.8% loss requires a 482.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RKLB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Rocket Lab
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 29.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.6 |
| Rev LTM | 303 |
| Op Inc LTM | -110 |
| FCF LTM | -104 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -11 |
| CFO LTM | -60 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 54.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 58.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 36.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -126.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -55.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -93.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -26.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -119.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -45.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.6 |
| P/S | 19.2 |
| P/EBIT | -25.6 |
| P/E | -301.4 |
| P/CFO | -72.2 |
| Total Yield | -0.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 21.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 72.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 160.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 777.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 56.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 142.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 768.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3072023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5162022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
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