Rivian Automotive (RIVN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $18.32 | Market Cap: $22.4 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
Rivian Automotive (RIVN)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $18.32Market Cap: $22.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -100% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.4 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -58% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include EV Manufacturing, EV Charging Infrastructure, and Autonomous Driving Technology. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -24% | |
| Key risksRIVN key risks include [1] a history of significant financial losses and high cash burn as it scales operations, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include EV Manufacturing, EV Charging Infrastructure, and Autonomous Driving Technology. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -100% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.4 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -58% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -24% |
| Key risksRIVN key risks include [1] a history of significant financial losses and high cash burn as it scales operations, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RIVN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points that contributed to the movement of Rivian Automotive (RIVN) stock during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Stronger-than-Expected Q3 2025 Financial Results: Rivian reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results, with consolidated revenue reaching approximately $1.6 billion, surpassing analyst expectations. The company also achieved its second consecutive quarterly gross profit, totaling $24 million, indicating improved operational efficiency and a significant turnaround from previous losses.
2. Increased Production and Delivery Figures: The company announced positive production and delivery figures for Q3 2025, producing 10,720 vehicles and delivering 13,201, which marked its highest delivery quarter for the year. Rivian also narrowed its full-year 2025 delivery guidance to a range of 41,500 to 43,500 vehicles.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RIVN Return | � | � | -82% | 27% | -43% | 35% | � |
| Peers Return | � | 127% | -58% | 22% | 18% | 16% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RIVN Win Rate | � | 0% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 65% | 29% | 46% | 52% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RIVN Max Drawdown | � | � | -83% | -35% | -64% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -7% | -62% | -22% | -29% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TSLA, F, GM, LCID.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RIVN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1333.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to OSK, THO, HOG, EMPD, SBLX
In The Past
Rivian Automotive's stock fell -93.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -93.0% loss requires a 1333.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RIVN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Rivian Automotive
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 17.63 |
| Mkt Cap | 53.0 |
| Rev LTM | 95,633 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,619 |
| FCF LTM | -489 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -2,949 |
| CFO LTM | 15,748 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 14,130 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 53.0 |
| P/S | 3.1 |
| P/EBIT | 7.3 |
| P/E | 10.1 |
| P/CFO | 2.4 |
| Total Yield | 0.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.8% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 15.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 30.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 19.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 39.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 13.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 18.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 11.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -43.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 23.4% | 44.2% | 43.6% |
| 8/5/2025 | -4.2% | -1.5% | 12.8% |
| 5/6/2025 | -5.8% | 10.1% | 2.1% |
| 2/20/2025 | -4.7% | -14.8% | -14.8% |
| 11/7/2024 | 5.4% | 2.6% | 43.8% |
| 8/6/2024 | -6.9% | -8.5% | -7.2% |
| 5/7/2024 | 0.2% | 9.2% | 14.5% |
| 2/21/2024 | -25.6% | -26.6% | -27.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 5.4% | 9.7% | 12.8% |
| Median Negative | -6.9% | -9.8% | -7.2% |
| Max Positive | 23.4% | 44.2% | 43.8% |
| Max Negative | -25.6% | -26.6% | -32.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3312022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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