Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -93%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -26 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2847%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 61x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Artificial Intelligence, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more.
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2064%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2066%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -59%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -93%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Artificial Intelligence, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -78%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -26 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2847%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 61x
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2064%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2066%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -59%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RFL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points explaining the stock movement for Rafael Holdings, Inc. (RFL) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: **1. Significant Decline in Net Income**
Rafael Holdings, Inc. experienced a substantial decrease in net income, reporting -$12.09 million USD for its most recent quarter, a significant drop from -$4.78 million USD in the preceding quarter, representing a -153.07% change.

**2. Negative Earnings Per Share (EPS)**
The company reported negative earnings per share (EPS) of ($0.28) for the quarter ending on October 29, 2025, indicating a lack of profitability.

**3. Analyst Downgrades**
Wall Street analysts downgraded Rafael Holdings, Inc. within this period, with Wall Street Zen lowering its rating from "hold" to "sell" on September 5, 2025, and Weiss Ratings reiterating a "sell (e+)" rating.

**4. Poor Financial Performance Indicators**
Rafael Holdings, Inc. exhibited weak financial health with a negative return on equity of 33.01% and a negative net margin of 3,328.24%.

**5. Stock Reaching All-Time Lows**
The stock reached an all-time low of $1.17 USD on November 25, 2025, reflecting a significant downturn in investor confidence and market valuation during this timeframe.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RFL Return31%-78%-63%-2%-10%-24%-93%
Peers Return9%6%-41%64%-3%66%81%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RFL Win Rate58%42%25%50%25%20% 
Peers Win Rate45%38%25%43%37%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RFL Max Drawdown-42%-79%-68%-22%-26%-25% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-18%-43%-8%-20%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OPEN, GBR, GYRO, LHAI, CBRE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRFLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-97.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven4285.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-53.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven117.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven259 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-46.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven86.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven454 days120 days

Compare to OPEN, GBR, GYRO, LHAI, CBRE


In The Past

Rafael's stock fell -97.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/12/2021. A -97.7% loss requires a 4285.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Rafael (RFL)

Better Bets than Rafael (RFL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RFL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.5%8.5%-5.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.5%8.5%-5.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Rafael

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RFLOPENGBRGYROLHAICBREMedian
NameRafael Opendoor.New Conc.Gyrodyne Linkhome CBRE  
Mkt Price1.256.940.769.5015.59162.288.22
Mkt Cap0.15.10.00.0-48.40.1
Rev LTM14,719051538,10410
Op Inc LTM-26-204-0-311,464-1
FCF LTM-19887-0-211,1140
FCF 3Y Avg-131,349049-78549
CFO LTM-19899-0-211,4240
CFO 3Y Avg-131,374049-1,08949

Growth & Margins

RFLOPENGBRGYROLHAICBREMedian
NameRafael Opendoor.New Conc.Gyrodyne Linkhome CBRE  
Rev Chg LTM44.0%-4.5%4.1%-1.2%215.1%15.0%9.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg46.8%-31.7%5.8%2.1%-7.9%5.8%
Rev Chg Q112.1%-33.6%8.1%-1.8%116.2%16.2%12.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM25.3%-8.9%2.0%-0.2%21.2%3.7%2.9%
Op Mgn LTM-2,847.2%-4.3%-166.9%-50.0%7.3%3.8%-27.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-8,116.7%-5.4%-141.8%-153.7%-3.5%-141.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-498.7%-0.4%-1.3%2.6%-2.0%0.2%-0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM-2,063.7%19.1%-26.5%-43.8%5.5%3.7%-11.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-2,396.8%15.2%0.0%1,138.1%-3.2%3.2%
FCF/Rev LTM-2,066.2%18.8%-26.5%-43.8%5.5%2.9%-11.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-2,406.3%14.8%0.0%1,136.7%-2.3%2.3%

Valuation

RFLOPENGBRGYROLHAICBREMedian
NameRafael Opendoor.New Conc.Gyrodyne Linkhome CBRE  
Mkt Cap0.15.10.00.0-48.40.1
P/S61.11.338.20.2-1.11.3
P/EBIT-1.7-32.7-22.9-0.5-28.5-1.7
P/E-1.8-18.7-94.623.9-38.3-1.8
P/CFO-3.06.6-144.3-0.5-29.3-0.5
Total Yield-54.5%-5.4%-1.1%4.2%-2.6%-1.1%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-25.2%60.3%0.1%3,141.7%-2.5%2.5%
D/E0.00.30.014.6-0.20.2
Net D/E-0.90.1-0.13.6-0.20.1

Returns

RFLOPENGBRGYROLHAICBREMedian
NameRafael Opendoor.New Conc.Gyrodyne Linkhome CBRE  
1M Rtn-7.4%-8.6%-17.0%-5.1%47.1%7.7%-6.2%
3M Rtn-17.8%35.3%-21.8%-6.9%83.8%2.0%-2.4%
6M Rtn-21.9%1,005.8%-22.8%15.0%-27.4%15.0%
12M Rtn-28.0%221.3%-34.4%1.7%-18.3%1.7%
3Y Rtn-32.9%305.8%-41.9%7.8%-104.8%7.8%
1M Excs Rtn-7.4%-8.5%-17.0%-5.0%47.1%7.8%-6.2%
3M Excs Rtn-19.1%11.1%-28.7%-12.5%79.8%-5.0%-8.7%
6M Excs Rtn-36.6%991.1%-37.6%0.3%-12.6%0.3%
12M Excs Rtn-46.1%183.0%-50.1%-17.8%-2.4%-17.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-106.8%208.5%-117.7%-66.1%-43.3%-66.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Real Estate00156
Healthcare00   
Infusion Technology0    
Pharmaceuticals   00
Total00156


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Real Estate001-6-1
Infusion Technology0    
Healthcare-15-61-29  
Pharmaceuticals   -30
Total-15-60-28-8-1


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity82,422
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202532.2%
Average Daily Volume101,631
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity41,212,413
Short % of Basic Shares0.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
73120251029202510-K 7/31/2025
4302025611202510-Q 4/30/2025
1312025314202510-Q 1/31/2025
103120241211202410-Q 10/31/2024
73120241107202410-K 7/31/2024
4302024614202410-Q 4/30/2024
1312024314202410-Q 1/31/2024
103120231214202310-Q 10/31/2023
73120231030202310-K 7/31/2023
4302023613202310-Q 4/30/2023
1312023314202310-Q 1/31/2023
103120221213202210-Q 10/31/2022
73120221031202210-K 7/31/2022
4302022614202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022317202210-Q 1/31/2022
103120211215202110-Q 10/31/2021