Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -32 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3149%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Artificial Intelligence, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more.
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 68x
2   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2205%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2206%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Artificial Intelligence, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Drone Technology, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -32 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -3149%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 68x
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2205%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2206%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RFL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Increased Operating and Net Losses: Rafael Holdings, Inc. reported an increased operating loss of $10.1 million and a net loss attributable to Rafael of $9.8 million, or $0.19 per share, for the three months ended October 31, 2025.

2. Sharp Rise in Research and Development Expenses: The company's research and development expenses significantly increased to $7.5 million, up from $1.3 million in the prior year, as it focuses on advancing its biotechnology portfolio.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RFL Return31%-78%-63%-2%-10%-8%-92%
Peers Return-10%23%25%-4%12%30%93%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RFL Win Rate58%42%25%50%25%25% 
Peers Win Rate47%58%57%45%62%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RFL Max Drawdown-42%-79%-68%-22%-26%-27% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-7%-2%-21%-5%-8% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RTX, LMT, NOC, GD, LHX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRFLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-97.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven4285.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-53.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven117.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven259 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-46.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven86.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven454 days120 days

Compare to OPEN, GBR, GYRO, LHAI, CBRE


In The Past

Rafael's stock fell -97.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/12/2021. A -97.7% loss requires a 4285.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Rafael (RFL)

Better Bets than Rafael (RFL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RFL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
0.3%0.3%-5.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
0.3%0.3%-5.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Rafael

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RFLRTXLMTNOCGDLHXMedian
NameRafael RTX Lockheed.Northrop.General .L3Harris. 
Mkt Price1.46178.66480.25569.76337.49286.95312.22
Mkt Cap0.1240.0111.481.590.953.786.2
Rev LTM185,98873,34940,92851,50921,37346,218
Op Inc LTM-328,8155,9974,0985,3272,3664,712
FCF LTM-234,7264,5931,8344,8122,1643,378
FCF 3Y Avg-145,5475,6342,1373,3951,8282,766
CFO LTM-237,9636,3613,4385,7192,5074,578
CFO 3Y Avg-148,6917,3863,7914,3502,2084,071

Growth & Margins

RFLRTXLMTNOCGDLHXMedian
NameRafael RTX Lockheed.Northrop.General .L3Harris. 
Rev Chg LTM47.6%8.8%2.9%-0.1%11.9%2.9%5.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg65.0%9.4%4.3%5.2%9.9%8.4%8.9%
Rev Chg Q87.5%11.9%8.8%4.3%10.6%2.4%9.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM12.2%2.9%2.1%1.1%2.5%0.6%2.3%
Op Mgn LTM-3,149.3%10.3%8.2%10.0%10.3%11.1%10.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-7,512.8%7.7%11.0%9.0%10.2%10.4%9.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-302.1%0.3%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.2%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-2,204.9%9.3%8.7%8.4%11.1%11.7%9.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-2,407.7%11.3%10.5%9.4%9.3%11.0%9.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-2,205.6%5.5%6.3%4.5%9.3%10.1%5.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-2,416.7%7.2%8.0%5.3%7.3%9.2%7.2%

Valuation

RFLRTXLMTNOCGDLHXMedian
NameRafael RTX Lockheed.Northrop.General .L3Harris. 
Mkt Cap0.1240.0111.481.590.953.786.2
P/S67.62.61.62.11.82.72.4
P/EBIT-21.619.315.816.822.619.3
P/E-2.234.127.621.721.833.724.7
P/CFO-3.128.218.225.416.122.820.5
Total Yield-45.0%4.5%5.6%5.3%6.3%4.5%4.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.5%2.0%0.7%1.7%1.6%1.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-3.7%4.8%2.8%4.4%4.2%4.2%
D/E-0.20.20.20.10.20.2
Net D/E-0.20.20.20.10.20.2

Returns

RFLRTXLMTNOCGDLHXMedian
NameRafael RTX Lockheed.Northrop.General .L3Harris. 
1M Rtn15.0%0.9%5.9%2.4%-3.4%-4.4%1.7%
3M Rtn9.0%15.1%2.7%-0.7%3.9%3.2%3.6%
6M Rtn-29.5%23.7%0.2%11.1%20.4%12.6%11.9%
12M Rtn-22.9%56.8%-0.4%20.4%30.9%30.4%25.4%
3Y Rtn-21.2%91.4%8.5%14.0%44.6%41.5%27.7%
1M Excs Rtn15.3%1.3%6.2%2.8%-3.1%-4.1%2.0%
3M Excs Rtn6.6%10.1%-1.0%-3.6%0.5%-1.0%-0.2%
6M Excs Rtn-43.7%9.4%-14.0%-3.1%6.2%-1.6%-2.3%
12M Excs Rtn-33.5%41.6%-16.7%7.6%14.2%13.6%10.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-97.2%19.5%-65.3%-62.7%-27.5%-33.2%-47.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Infusion Technology00   
Real Estate00015
Healthcare000  
Pharmaceuticals    0
Total10015


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Real Estate0001-6
Infusion Technology-10   
Healthcare-102-15-61-29 
Pharmaceuticals    -3
Total-103-15-60-28-8


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity72,743
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-11.7%
Average Daily Volume86,278
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity51,184,407
Short % of Basic Shares0.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/20250.7%-0.7%-9.0%
6/11/2025-27.7%-31.9%-22.5%
3/14/20251.1%1.6%-9.8%
11/7/20242.6%-2.1%0.5%
6/14/20243.5%-0.7%5.6%
3/14/20240.6%-0.6%5.8%
10/30/20233.5%4.6%2.3%
6/13/2023-2.3%-3.6%-4.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive1079
# Negative8119
Median Positive3.1%3.3%5.8%
Median Negative-5.3%-2.1%-17.2%
Max Positive18.2%22.9%35.0%
Max Negative-27.7%-34.1%-79.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
103120251212202510-Q 10/31/2025
73120251029202510-K 7/31/2025
4302025611202510-Q 4/30/2025
1312025314202510-Q 1/31/2025
103120241211202410-Q 10/31/2024
73120241107202410-K 7/31/2024
4302024614202410-Q 4/30/2024
1312024314202410-Q 1/31/2024
103120231214202310-Q 10/31/2023
73120231030202310-K 7/31/2023
4302023613202310-Q 4/30/2023
1312023314202310-Q 1/31/2023
103120221213202210-Q 10/31/2022
73120221031202210-K 7/31/2022
4302022614202210-Q 4/30/2022
1312022317202210-Q 1/31/2022