Intuitive Machines (LUNR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.18 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Intuitive Machines (LUNR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.18Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -24% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -70% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -32 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -18% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.3x | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Space Economy. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Lunar Logistics & Services, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 105% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -24% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Space Economy. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Lunar Logistics & Services, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -70% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -32 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -18% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.3x |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 105% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LUNR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the potential 16.3% stock movement for Intuitive Machines (LUNR) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strategic Acquisitions Bolstering Market Position: Intuitive Machines made significant strategic moves, including the completion of the KinetX acquisition on October 1, 2025, and the announcement of the acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems on November 4, 2025. These acquisitions are aimed at expanding the company's capabilities and market presence in the commercial, civil, and national security space sectors, creating a "Next-Generation Commercial, Civil, and National Security Space Prime."
2. New Contracts and Program Progress: The company secured an $8.2 million contract extension from the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) on October 30, 2025, to advance in-space nuclear power technology. Additionally, Intuitive Machines continued to progress with its proposal for NASA's Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) program, with an award decision anticipated in the second half of 2025, indicating potential future revenue streams.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LUNR Return | - | - | 4% | -74% | 611% | -48% | -2% |
| Peers Return | -13% | -2% | -3% | 14% | -2% | 47% | 36% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LUNR Win Rate | - | 0% | 75% | 33% | 67% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 17% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 5% | 31% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LUNR Max Drawdown | - | - | -0% | -76% | -17% | -64% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -5% | -7% | -0% | -2% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LUNR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -97.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 3274.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC
In The Past
Intuitive Machines's stock fell -97.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/22/2023. A -97.0% loss requires a 3274.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LUNR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Intuitive Machines
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.55 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.5 |
| Rev LTM | 138 |
| Op Inc LTM | -20 |
| FCF LTM | -25 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -11 |
| CFO LTM | -14 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -10 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 50.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 56.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 20.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -113.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -25.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -87.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -24.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -110.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -44.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.5 |
| P/S | 4.6 |
| P/EBIT | -3.7 |
| P/E | -264.6 |
| P/CFO | -21.4 |
| Total Yield | -8.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -12.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 20.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 26.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 93.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 234.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 14.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 11.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 77.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 212.0% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5132025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11152024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5142024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3252024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11132023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8142023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 12312022 | 7052023 | 424B3 12/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 10132022 | S-4 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |