Tearsheet

Intuitive Machines (LUNR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.18 | Market Cap: $1.2 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Intuitive Machines (LUNR)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $10.18
Market Cap: $1.2 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -24%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -70%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -32 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -18%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.3x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Space Economy. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Lunar Logistics & Services, Show more.
  Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21%
4   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 105%
5   Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -24%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, and Space Economy. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Lunar Logistics & Services, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -70%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -32 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -18%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.3x
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -21%
8 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 105%
9 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LUNR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the potential 16.3% stock movement for Intuitive Machines (LUNR) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Strategic Acquisitions Bolstering Market Position: Intuitive Machines made significant strategic moves, including the completion of the KinetX acquisition on October 1, 2025, and the announcement of the acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems on November 4, 2025. These acquisitions are aimed at expanding the company's capabilities and market presence in the commercial, civil, and national security space sectors, creating a "Next-Generation Commercial, Civil, and National Security Space Prime."

2. New Contracts and Program Progress: The company secured an $8.2 million contract extension from the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) on October 30, 2025, to advance in-space nuclear power technology. Additionally, Intuitive Machines continued to progress with its proposal for NASA's Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) program, with an award decision anticipated in the second half of 2025, indicating potential future revenue streams.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LUNR Return--4%-74%611%-48%-2%
Peers Return-13%-2%-3%14%-2%47%36%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LUNR Win Rate-0%75%33%67%60% 
Peers Win Rate17%8%10%12%5%31% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LUNR Max Drawdown---0%-76%-17%-64% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-5%-7%-0%-2%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLUNRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-97.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven3274.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC


In The Past

Intuitive Machines's stock fell -97.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/22/2023. A -97.0% loss requires a 3274.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Intuitive Machines (LUNR)

Better Bets than Intuitive Machines (LUNR)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LUNR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Intuitive Machines

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LUNRFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameIntuitiv.Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Mkt Price10.2018.5551.72-29.503.5418.55
Mkt Cap1.2-1.8---1.5
Rev LTM176101831--4138
Op Inc LTM-32-21150---9-20
FCF LTM-40-19951---9-25
FCF 3Y Avg-52-8---11-11
CFO LTM-20-16574---9-14
CFO 3Y Avg-30-22---10-10

Growth & Margins

LUNRFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameIntuitiv.Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Rev Chg LTM50.7%-6.2%--166.4%50.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg--19.5%--94.3%56.9%
Rev Chg Q20.8%-3.8%--330.2%20.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.0%-0.9%--35.8%0.9%
Op Mgn LTM-18.3%-209.3%6.0%---209.1%-113.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-25.9%-2.2%---699.5%-25.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.0%-1.7%--86.7%1.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-11.2%-164.1%8.9%---212.3%-87.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-24.5%-2.5%---716.7%-24.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-22.9%-197.5%6.1%---216.3%-110.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-44.5%-0.8%---777.8%-44.5%

Valuation

LUNRFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameIntuitiv.Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Mkt Cap1.2-1.8---1.5
P/S7.3-1.9---4.6
P/EBIT-39.7-32.3----3.7
P/E-5.9--523.2----264.6
P/CFO-64.7-22.0----21.4
Total Yield-16.9%--0.2%----8.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%-0.0%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-24.9%--0.5%----12.7%
D/E0.0-0.2---0.1
Net D/E-0.2-0.2----0.0

Returns

LUNRFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameIntuitiv.Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
1M Rtn-11.9%-22.0%6.1%---10.6%-11.3%
3M Rtn20.6%-58.2%40.5%--19.6%20.1%
6M Rtn-7.8%-61.1%---26.6%
12M Rtn-27.9%-215.2%---93.6%
3Y Rtn2.8%-466.5%---234.7%
1M Excs Rtn-11.9%-22.0%6.1%---10.6%-11.2%
3M Excs Rtn15.8%-62.0%27.1%--13.0%14.4%
6M Excs Rtn-22.5%-46.4%---11.9%
12M Excs Rtn-51.2%-206.7%---77.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-69.8%-493.7%---212.0%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity28,957,042
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-1.0%
Average Daily Volume6,778,644
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.27
Basic Shares Quantity117,434,775
Short % of Basic Shares24.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024325202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241115202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024813202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024514202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023325202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231113202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023814202310-Q 6/30/2023
123120227052023424B3 12/31/2022
1231202110132022S-4 12/31/2021