Rubrik (RBRK)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $78.33 | Market Cap: $15.5 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Systems Software
Rubrik (RBRK)
Market Price (12/21/2025): $78.33Market Cap: $15.5 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Systems Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -379 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -32% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 57x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Cloud Security, Software Security, Show more. | Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.6% | |
| Key risksRBRK key risks include [1] a consistent lack of profitability and negative shareholder equity and [2] a high valuation that demands near-perfect execution to avoid a significant stock sell-off. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 49% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Cloud Security, Software Security, Show more. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -379 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -32% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 57x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.6% |
| Key risksRBRK key risks include [1] a consistent lack of profitability and negative shareholder equity and [2] a high valuation that demands near-perfect execution to avoid a significant stock sell-off. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RBRK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining Rubrik's (RBRK) stock movement by approximately -12.6% in the period from August 31, 2025, to December 21, 2025:
1. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions: While several analysts reiterated "Buy" or "Outperform" ratings and even raised price targets following Rubrik's strong Q3 FY2026 earnings, dissenting views contributed to negative sentiment. Notably, Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its price target from $115.00 to $105.00 around December 3rd, and Wall Street Zen downgraded Rubrik from a "buy" to a "hold" rating on August 22nd.
2. Forward-Looking Guidance Indicating Continued Losses: Despite exceeding revenue and earnings estimates for both Q2 and Q3 fiscal year 2026, Rubrik's full-year 2026 guidance projected continued non-GAAP losses per share. For instance, the full-year 2025 outlook included non-GAAP EPS between $(1.86) and $(1.82), and a later report cited FY2026 guidance signaling planned losses (EPS of −0.200 to −0.160 for FY2026 and −0.120 to −0.100 for Q4 2026). This outlook for ongoing unprofitability might have dampened investor enthusiasm, despite strong growth metrics.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RBRK Return | � | � | � | � | � | 16% | � |
| Peers Return | 22% | 36% | -15% | 46% | 58% | 8% | 247% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RBRK Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 62% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 68% | 40% | 55% | 67% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RBRK Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -8% | -28% | -10% | -4% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CVLT, DELL, NTAP, PSTG, IBM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
RBRK has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 278 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,183 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Rubrik Earnings Notes | |||
| Rubrik (RBRK +22%): Q3 Profitability Inflection Drives AI-Security Re-Rate | Notification | ||
| With Rubrik Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | Return | ||
| How Does Rubrik Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Rubrik (RBRK) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| Rubrik (RBRK) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Rubrik (RBRK) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Rubrik (RBRK) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Rubrik (RBRK) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| RBRK Stock Analysis: Strong Growth Meets Rich Valuation | December 5th, 2025 | ||
| Buy Or Fear Rubrik Stock? | September 16th, 2025 | ||
| Will Rubrik Stock Trend Higher Post Earnings? | June 3rd, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RBRK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.3% | 15.3% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.2% | 10.2% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.6% | 14.6% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 9.6% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 8.4% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Rubrik
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 118.55 |
| Mkt Cap | 22.5 |
| Rev LTM | 5,060 |
| Op Inc LTM | 793 |
| FCF LTM | 1,121 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,360 |
| CFO LTM | 1,340 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,534 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 22.5 |
| P/S | 4.7 |
| P/EBIT | 19.7 |
| P/E | 27.2 |
| P/CFO | 23.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 136.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 53.0% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 12/4/2025 | 22.5% | 23.6% | |
| 9/9/2025 | -18.1% | -23.9% | -14.5% |
| 6/5/2025 | -0.7% | -10.0% | -7.1% |
| 3/13/2025 | 27.8% | 27.0% | 6.7% |
| 12/5/2024 | 20.4% | 38.3% | 19.9% |
| 9/9/2024 | -1.5% | -2.1% | 8.0% |
| 6/11/2024 | -8.9% | -13.1% | -4.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| # Negative | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 22.5% | 27.0% | 8.0% |
| Median Negative | -5.2% | -11.5% | -7.1% |
| Max Positive | 27.8% | 38.3% | 19.9% |
| Max Negative | -18.1% | -23.9% | -14.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | 12082025 | 10-Q 10/31/2025 |
| 7312025 | 9102025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6092025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3202025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12122024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9122024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6132024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 4262024 | 424B4 1/31/2024 |
| 1312023 | 2052024 | DRS/A 1/31/2023 |
| 1312022 | 3032023 | DRS/A 1/31/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |