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Quince Therapeutics (QNCX)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.62 | Market Cap: $169.0 Mil
Sector: Health Care | Industry: Biotechnology

Quince Therapeutics (QNCX)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $3.62
Market Cap: $169.0 Mil
Sector: Health Care
Industry: Biotechnology

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.6%, Dist 3Y High is -3.6%
Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Biopharmaceutical R&D.
  Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -41 Mil
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 223%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -68%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -22%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Precision Medicine. Themes include Targeted Therapies, and Biopharmaceutical R&D.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.6%, Dist 3Y High is -3.6%
3 Very low revenue
Rev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -41 Mil
5 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 223%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -68%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

QNCX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Quince Therapeutics (QNCX) stock moved by approximately 120% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:



1. Anticipation of Pivotal Phase 3 NEAT Trial Topline Results: Investor confidence increased significantly due to the nearing readout of topline results from the pivotal Phase 3 NEAT clinical trial for its lead asset, eDSP, in treating Ataxia-Telangiectasia (A-T), with results expected in the first quarter of 2026. This upcoming data is viewed as a major catalyst for the company.

2. Positive Independent Data and Safety Monitoring Board (iDSMB) Review: In November 2025, Quince Therapeutics announced a positive outcome from the iDSMB review for its eDSP in the pivotal Phase 3 NEAT clinical trial, which recommended the study continue without any modifications. This news bolstered confidence in the trial's progress and potential for success.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
QNCX Return-51%-55%-95%65%78%81%-94%
Peers Return2%-1%6%8%-0%2%17%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
QNCX Win Rate58%58%8%42%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate13%8%13%12%10%90% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
QNCX Max Drawdown-51%-59%-96%0%-49%-55% 
Peers Max Drawdown-2%-5%0%-0%-1%-2% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventQNCXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-99.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven21116.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-61.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven161.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven221 days148 days

Compare to VRTX, AIXC, ALPS, BBOT, EVMN


In The Past

Quince Therapeutics's stock fell -99.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/10/2021. A -99.5% loss requires a 21116.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Quince Therapeutics (QNCX)

Better Bets than Quince Therapeutics (QNCX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to QNCX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CRL_11142025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11142025CRLCharles River Laboratories InternationalDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.1%4.1%-3.7%
GDRX_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11142025GDRXGoodRxDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-9.8%-9.8%-11.8%
ASTH_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025ASTHAstrana HealthDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
6.0%6.0%-5.5%
SGRY_11142025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11142025SGRYSurgery PartnersDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
9.7%9.7%-1.4%
TFX_11072025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11072025TFXTeleflexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.2%6.2%-5.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Quince Therapeutics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

QNCXVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameQuince T.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Price3.52463.132.541.0711.0721.227.29
Mkt Cap0.2118.4----59.3
Rev LTM011,7230-0100
Op Inc LTM-41-92-5--93-70-70
FCF LTM-363,337-6--60-64-36
FCF 3Y Avg-282,064-10----10
CFO LTM-363,718-6--60-64-36
CFO 3Y Avg-282,419-10----10

Growth & Margins

QNCXVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameQuince T.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Rev Chg LTM-10.3%----10.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-10.5%----10.5%
Rev Chg Q-11.0%----11.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.7%----2.7%
Op Mgn LTM--0.8%----700.7%-350.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-26.2%----26.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.0%----1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM-31.7%----635.6%-302.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-23.1%----23.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-28.5%----636.5%-304.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-19.8%----19.8%

Valuation

QNCXVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameQuince T.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
Mkt Cap0.2118.4----59.3
P/S-8.5----8.5
P/EBIT-1.922.4----10.3
P/E-1.627.2----12.8
P/CFO-2.226.9----12.4
Total Yield-63.6%3.7%-----30.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%----0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-57.1%2.3%-----27.4%
D/E0.20.0----0.1
Net D/E-0.2-0.0-----0.1

Returns

QNCXVRTXAIXCALPSBBOTEVMNMedian
NameQuince T.Vertex P.AIxCryptoALPS BridgeBi.Evommune  
1M Rtn116.0%8.7%---9.9%-8.7%
3M Rtn118.6%16.8%--12.5%-16.8%
6M Rtn222.9%3.9%----113.4%
12M Rtn63.0%1.3%----32.2%
3Y Rtn382.2%44.1%----213.2%
1M Excs Rtn116.0%8.7%---9.9%-8.7%
3M Excs Rtn114.0%11.3%--4.5%-11.3%
6M Excs Rtn208.2%-10.8%----98.7%
12M Excs Rtn58.2%-14.6%----21.8%
3Y Excs Rtn324.4%-25.9%----149.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Operating Income by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Business of developing and commercializing the Company's proprietary Autologous Intracellular Drug-35    
Total-35    


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Business of developing and commercializing the Company's proprietary Autologous Intracellular Drug-31    
Total-31    


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Business of developing and commercializing the Company's proprietary Autologous Intracellular Drug 104133189124
Total 104133189124


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,365,905
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120254.2%
Average Daily Volume506,406
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.70
Basic Shares Quantity46,686,239
Short % of Basic Shares2.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025811202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025513202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024324202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241113202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024813202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024513202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023401202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231114202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023515202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022315202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211029202110-Q 9/30/2021